Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC 295 prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's pay-per-view event.
Each Prop Squad installment features multiple picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have profited to the tune of +22.4 units and an +8.2% ROI per bet to date.
This week marks the return of squad members Clint MacLean, Dan Tom, Billy Ward, Tony Sartori, Dann Stupp and Bryan Fonseca.
UFC 295 takes place at Madison Square Garden in New York City with prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and ESPNews (8 p.m. ET), as well as the main card on ESPN+ PPV (10 p.m. ET, $79.99).
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
Clint MacLean: Kyung Ho Kang by KO (+1400)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Kyung Ho Kang isn't a fighter we generally think of as a finisher, but looking over his recent run, it's hard to argue he isn't capable.
In Kang's last six fights, he has landed four knockdowns on his opponents, so even though he has just two KO wins on his record, he is hurting his opponents.
Kang's opponent this week, John Castaneda, has been finished only twice, and both losses are KO losses. Castaneda is also coming into UFC 295 at less than 100%. Castaneda's camp requested a catchweight for this fight due to weight-management issues.
Such issues are usually due to illness or injury, so we can assume that he is coming in slightly impaired.
If you have a less-than-100% fighter who has been KO'd twice already against a streaking fighter who seems to be trusting in his power more, I will take the shot on this inflated number and hope for the best at UFC 295.
The Pick: Kyung Ho Kang by KO (+1400 at Betway)
Dan Tom: Jared Gordon in Round 3 (+1400)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a round prop with some potential in the preliminary-card bout between Jared Gordon and Mark Madsen.
Despite the moneyline on Gordon steadily widening throughout fight week, I still see some tangible angles to attack if you're looking to get involved with the favorite.
Although Gordon traditionally wins most of his fights by decision, the New York native is not beyond snatching mid- to late-round finishes if they're available.
I also suspect that Gordon will be extra motivated to take things out of the judges' hands considering what happened to him opposite Paddy Pimblett a year ago.
Madsen may be a stronger wrestler than Gordon on paper, but the 39-year-old native of Denmark has shown a propensity to tire in high-pace affairs.
For that reason, I'll happily take a stab at the hometown fighter in Gordon to take Madsen to task in Round 3.
The Pick: Jared Gordon wins in Round 3 (+1400 at FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Alessandro Costa in Round 1 (+800)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:30 p.m. ET
With the exception of some near toss-up fights, I’m not on a ton of underdogs at UFC 295. Broadly speaking, the cards' favorites deserve their favored status, with straightforward reasoning behind them.
On the other hand, we could argue that the reason Steve Erceg is a moderate favorite over Alessandro Costa is due to the short-notice nature of the fight. Erceg was originally matched up with Matt Schnell, but an injury forced the rebooking with Costa.
Costa is 1-1 in the UFC, though his loss came in his debut against top contender Amir Albazi (also as a short-notice replacement), which is hard to hold against him. Erceg is 1-0 for the promotion with a decision win over David Dvorak.
Another way to put that: Erceg is not Amir Albazi. Including Costa’s fight on the Contender Series, Costa has looked very good for the promotion, scoring knockdowns in both fights. He’d arguably be a slight favorite with a full training camp to prepare.
The logical question becomes, what type of win does a short training camp make more difficult? The easy answer is a late stoppage or a decision since the biggest issue with a lack of a camp is not having the cardio to push a pace for 15 minutes.
Which leads to this pick. If Costa is able to pull off the upset here, he likely needs to do it fast. Eight of his 13 professional wins have come in the opening frame – so he has the ability to do so – and he’s unlikely to perform well in a longer fight. That makes the gap between his Round 1 prop and his moneyline far too wide. It represents less than a third of his win condition coming in the first round.
A related option is a same-game parlay with Costa & Under 1.5 rounds on DraftKings at +425. Costa should be mostly fresh to open the second round, giving him one more crack at a finish. But we'll take the bigger Round 1 number at Betway.
The Pick: Alessandro Costa in Round 1 (+800 at Betway)
Tony Sartori: Steve Erceg by KO (+650)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:30 p.m. ET
The No. 14-ranked flyweight contender, Steve Erceg, takes on Alessandro Costa in the featured prelim at UFC 295.
Erceg immediately secured a ranking after just one UFC bout with a commanding decision victory over David Dvorak. We are catching such a wide number in the knockout market for the -205 favorite in this fight because Erceg displayed his grappling efficiency in that bout.
However, Erceg was a rising prospect before reaching the UFC and has won each of his past eight fights, including his first-round knockout victory over Paul Loga under the Eternal MMA promotion. We saw this power carry over into that aforementioned win over Dvorak, who was stunned numerous times with right hooks and later on with a head kick.
Dvorak had not been knocked out in over a decade, so it wasn't that shocking that he was able to survive those damaging strikes. But can Costa do the same?
We just saw Costa get knocked out by Amir Albazi after an uppercut led to ground and pound in their 2022 bout, and if Erceg lands some shots similar to those he was landing against Dvorak, then a similar result would not be shocking at UFC 295.
The Pick: Steve Erceg by KO (+650 at BetRivers)
Sean Zerillo: Steve Erceg in Round 2 (+700), Round 3 (+1100)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:30 p.m. ET
Steve Erceg impressed as a short-notice underdog in his UFC debut in June when he upset then-ranked David Dvorak in place of Matt Schnell. He closed as a +245 underdog in that.
Now he draws Alessandro Costa on short notice – also in place of Schnell – on Saturday in the featured UFC 295 prelim.
The short-notice nature could pose a cardio issue for Costa, who lost his UFC debut in the third round on short notice against Amir Albazi. Costa is also the smaller and less durable fighter.
As a result, for MMA Prop Squad this week, I'm going to target the same matchup that my colleagues above have tapped. I mentioned my betting angles in my mega UFC 295 betting guide, and I'm going to carry over a few of them here.
I'm going to take a few round props on Erceg getting the job done after the opening round.
I split my MMA Prop Squad pick this week and took him to win in Round 2 (+700) and Round 3 (+1100) against an opponent who might tire in the later rounds.
The Picks: Steve Erceg in Round 2 (+700 at DraftKings) | Erceg in Round 3 (+1100 at DraftKings)
Dann Stupp: Diego Lopes by KO (+475)
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10 p.m. ET
I hate to focus on just one matchup for both my UFC 295 best bet and my MMA Prop Squad pick, but I think some of the best betting angles for this card come from the main-card opener of Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini.
The featherweights are slotted for the first PPV slot for good reason: UFC officials expect this featherweight fight to be a wild one. If fight fans are going to eat that $80 price tag for the PPV, they better get a payoff as soon as they tune in.
And that's what we're getting here with Lopes vs. Sabatini.
For Sabatini, a victorious night probably means he was able to get the fight to the mat and keep it there.
However, I think Lopes can keep the fight upright – or at least get himself back to his feet often enough – and that should give him the opportunities he needs to load his wild but effective striking. We've seen Sabatini's sometimes-vulnerable chin in past performances, and I think that's going to give Lopes reason to keep this one standing.
Lopes is probably going to be most dangerous in the early parts of the fight. Facing a possible cardio disadvantage, he has little reason to tip-toe around Sabatini, and he should be plenty motivated to get the finish as quickly as possible.
For a fight that's expected to end inside the distance 66.7% of the time (-200), I think we're getting fantastic odds on Lopes to win by knockout. Betfred has a market-best +475, but many other books have a playable +450, as well.
The Pick: Diego Lopes by KO (+475 at Betfred)
Bryan Fonseca: Mackenzie Dern by KO (+850)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11 p.m. ET
I actually like this bet enough that it worries me.
I came away from Mackenzie Dern's performance against Angela Hill extremely impressed. Relative to the level of Dern's opposition, I felt that it was her most complete performance yet.
We know her jiu-jitsu and grappling are world-class, but Dern's striking continues to improve, to the point where she got the better of Hill regularly while the fight was standing.
Now, you could say Hill had to account for the threat of Dern's takedowns, and that's true. But so will anyone else who fights her.
On top of that, though Dern hasn't knocked anyone out in 16 pro fights, you don't until you do. And she nearly finished Hill on multiple occasions. She just had a tough opponent who had never been knocked out and has tapped twice.
Jessica Andrade, however, has 12 losses – one fewer than Hill – but she's been knocked out five times and has tapped four times. Andrade was KO'd by Yan Xiaonan inside of a round in their encounter at UFC 288 in May, and she tapped in Round 2 to Tatiana Suarez in August. She's 0-3 this year and has lost six of her last 10 fights.
Andrade has been knocked out three times since August 2019 – two in Round 1 – and all of her KO losses came in either Round 1 or 2 in her career.
Dern is also post-divorce, which she's talked about leading up to this fight, saying all her money is still going to her ex. So yes, part of this sprinkle is on emotion. She fought against Hill like she's been dealing with some sh*t, and I think that's gonna show against Andrade, who has less in the tank given all her performances this year.
Don't put a ton on it – it's +850 at BetRivers and +800 at other books – but to me, it's worth a small shot.
The Pick: Mackenzie Dern by KO (+850 at BetRivers)
