Let’s look into some mispriced betting lines for UFC 296 on Saturday and see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued heading into the year-end pay-per-view event.
UFC 296 features two title fights and takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Following eight preliminary-card fights on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and ESPN2 (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight main card streams on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (price: $79.99).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
Leon Edwards (-155) vs. Colby Covington (+130)
Improbably, Colby Covington has managed to talk himself into another welterweight title fight. "Chaos" is 0-2 in his prior attempts with just one non-title win after each unsuccessful try.
More importantly, they weren't exactly the most impressive wins.
The first was a fifth-round stoppage over 38-year-old Tyron Woodley, the third of what became a four-fight losing skid for the former champion.
The more recent was a decision win over 37-year-old Jorge Masvidal – the third straight loss in what became a four-fight skid for the former (BMF) champion.
Covington's most recent win before those two? A decision victory over 37-year-old Robbie Lawler, in what marked the third straight loss for the former champion in an eventual four-fight skid.
Point is, Covington hasn't beaten anyone coming off a win since Rafael dos Anjos way back in 2018. This is not a coincidence. The UFC brass loves the character Covington has created for himself, and his ability to promote fights far exceeds his ability to win them. Which isn't to say he's not good – just that his elite mic skills are a step ahead of his "very good" abilities in the cage.
This time Covington draws champion Leon Edwards, who's younger, bigger and coming in on a 12-fight, eight-year unbeaten streak. Two of those wins were over Kamaru Usman, who handed Covington each of his last two losses.
You could still get -130 odds on Edwards a few days ago, but as of Monday, the best line available is -150 on BetMGM and Caesars. It won't stay there for long.
Verdict: Colby Covington Overvalued
Alexandre Pantoja (-175) vs. Brandon Royval (+145)
UFC 296's second title fight features a flyweight rematch between recently-crowned champion Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja and Brandon "Raw Dog" Royval.
This should be a fun fight between two high-activity fighters, and it's also an interesting one from a luck standpoint.
Notably, this is a rematch from a 2021 fight that saw Pantoja win by rear-naked choke.
Prior winners tend to repeat in rematches, but there's also a slight edge to younger fighters in repeated bouts. In this case, Royval is the younger of the two, so those heuristics mostly even out.
Typically we'd see a stoppage win and not think luck played much of a role. However, there's more to this one. Royval suffered an eye-poke shortly before the sequence that saw him submitted by Pantoja. The stoppage came in the second round, with the first round being split by the judges 2-1 in favor of Pantoja.
Royval was also off to a hot start in the second round before the foul, so it was a much closer fight than the final result indicates.
Royval's previous loss was also somewhat fluky; he suffered a shoulder injury near the end of a close first round with Brandon Moreno. Pantoja claimed the title with a split-decision win over Moreno, so these three fighters are all extremely evenly matched.
My guess is the current line is based on bookmakers overvaluing the prior result between these two, without realizing the fluky nature of it. Royval opened around +200 with his line slowly trickling lower throughout the week.
I could see a case for trying to wait out some public money on the champion, especially as casual MMA bettors build their parlays of favored fighters. However, I'm happy with the current odds on Royval, and the best lines are +150 at Caesars and BetRivers.
Verdict: Brandon Royval Undervalued
Bryce Mitchell (-218) vs. Josh Emmett (+180)
After picking up three straight fairly tight decision victories, Josh Emmett's luck has run out recently. He was submitted in his interim title fight against Yair Rodriguez before being absolutely dominated by Ilia Topuria – with one judge scoring it 50-42 for Topuria.
Which means we're a bit late to the "fade Emmett" party, but there could still be some value against Bryce Mitchell in their UFC 296 main-card opener.
"Thug Nasty" is stepping in on short notice for this one following a 20-month stretch in which he's had more fights canceled (three) than actually happen. His lone UFC loss came in that stretch, a submission to Topuria.
On the one hand, you could argue that Emmett going the distance against a fighter who finished Mitchell should point us to the underdog here. However, he has almost no success in that fight, while Mitchell at least had his moments.
Mitchell has also publicly stated that he was far less than 100% in that fight, but his recent string of cancellations left him with no choice other than push through for a paycheck.
The line has already moved precipitously toward Mitchell. The books that posted early lines on this fight had him around -160. I prefer to wait on submission and/or finish lines on Mitchell at this point, but there's certainly a case he should be an even heavier favorite.
Verdict: Bryce Mitchell Undervalued
Irene Aldana (-205) vs. Karol Rosa (+170)
Irene Aldana is looking to rebound from a one-sided beating by the best female fighter of all time, Amanda Nunes, in what turned out to be the retirement fight for "Lioness." There's no shame in getting destroyed by Nunes – it's happened to everybody.
Prior to that, Aldana had won three of four fights with all three victories by knockout.
That's a stark contrast to Karol Rosa, who is also 3-2 in her last five, but with all three wins coming via decision – just one of them unanimous.
Rosa could easily be 1-4 in that span with a bit of luck going the other way, making her a classic regression candidate if it sees the judges. Aldana also has all of the finishing upside here; Rosa is yet to finish a UFC fight.
I'm comfortable laying the juice on this one, but I wouldn't say it's a priority to bet early in the week.
Another angle is to wait for Aldana's finish props to open up, or even consider her spread on DraftKings – which would pay out with a finish or 30-27 victory on the scorecards.
Verdict: Irene Aldana Undervalued
Casey O'Neil (-198) vs. Arianne Lipski (+164)
Based strictly on their respective records, the lines throughout the industry are about right for this women's flyweight bout.
Casey O'Neil is (or was) one of the more-hyped female prospects in the sport, and she was undefeated heading into her last appearance at UFC 286. She dropped a unanimous decision to Jennifer Maia in that fight, the first loss of her career.
That's concerning in and of itself, as Maia is 1-3 in her other four most recent fights. It's especially concerning when you dig a bit deeper, though. That fight was the first for O'Neil after a torn ACL she suffered in the summer of 2022, and it showed.
Typically I'd be looking to "buy the dip" on a fighter once they're a bit further away from a serious injury. However, O'Neil was also forced out of a planned September fight with another (undisclosed) injury.
The line on Arianne Lipski has been slowly rising since opening, with some spots offering odds as long as +175. The injury risk, combined with my "take the underdog on fights that should see the judges" rule has me very interested in a sprinkle on Lipski.
However, I believe we can safely wait to see if the line creeps up a bit more as we get closer to fight time.
