UFC 296 Odds: Billy Ward’s Betting Picks, Previews, Predictions for All 12 Fights (Saturday, December 16)

The UFC 296 odds board for Saturday's pay-per-view event features 12 fights, including a pair of title bouts atop the UFC's year-end fight card.

Below, I've made my UFC 296 predictions and picks with fight breakdowns for the entire UFC 296 lineup at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

The UFC 296 preliminary card begins at 6:30 p.m. ET (3:30 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before moving to ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET for additional prelims. The main card then kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV (cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value.

Below, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights on the UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington fight card, including moneylines, over/unders, prop bets, same-game parlays, live bets and more.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

(Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. When betting on UFC 296, register with Action Network's DraftKings promo code today for a sign-up offer!)

UFC 296 Odds

Martin Buday vs. Shamil Gaziev

Would it really be a UFC event without two sloppy heavyweights slinging leather?

At UFC 296, we have our obligatory big-boy brawl on the prelims this time, with UFC debutant Shamil Gaziev taking on Martin Buday, who's 4-0 for the promotion, in the event's curtain-jerker.

That sentence makes it sound like Buday should be a much heavier favorite than he is, but I'm not so sure. Buday's UFC opponents are a combined 9-18 for the promotion, so it's hard to say he's fought discernibly tougher competition than Gaziev has on the regional scene.

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Gaziev is the far more aggressive fighter, and he has an 11-0 pro record comprised of 10 finishes – all within the first six minutes of the bout. That obviously raises serious questions about his cardio, especially given his less-than-svelte physique.

On the other hand, Buday's style could be described as either "patient" or "plodding" depending on how generous you'd like to be. Three of his four UFC wins were decisions with a submission over Josh Parisian as the sole outlier.

This is a fairly obvious fight in which when it ends correlates heavily to who comes out on top. If betting this one prefight, take Gaziev & Under 1.5 rounds in a same-game parlay, and pair that with Buday and Over 1.5 rounds.

I prefer to bet it live somewhere around that mark, though, while sticking with the Gaziev bet. Hopefully, we'll get better odds on Buday after a strong first round from the newcomer.

Bets

• Shamil Gaziev & Under 1.5 Rounds SGP (+245 at DraftKings) | Martin Buday Live

Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida

Andre Fili will be making his 21st walk to the UFC octagon on Saturday, and the 33-year-old has a 10-9-1 record for the promotion over his 10-year run.

Fili's fairly consistently beat lower-level fighters but struggled against "name" opponents – with just one win in his last five contests, a split-decision victory over Bill Algeo.

Early in his UFC run, Fili made a lot of headway with his grappling, but he has just two takedowns combined over his last five fights. Late-stage Fili has morphed more into a brawler. He uses his length and height to keep opponents at bay while throwing barrages of strikes.

Fili can be picked apart on the feet by more technical opponents, but his high output can overwhelm lesser fighters.

Which makes the matchup with Lucas Almeida very interesting. Almeida is just 1-1 in the UFC proper with a knockout win over Michael Trizano and a submission loss to Pat Sabatini. Neither of those gives us much information about his level since Sabatini is an elite grappler and Trizano is a fairly mediocre fighter by UFC standards.

With that said, I was impressed by Almeida's striking in the tape I watched. He throws good counters, and he mixes in kicks well at the end of exchanges. His defense left a lot to be desired, but we could say the same about Fili.

Either guy looking like the superior striker seems entirely plausible here, and both are far better offensively than defensively. I'd line this one much closer to a coin flip than the current odds, so I'll somewhat-begrudgingly take a stab at Almeida's moneyline.

"Fight to end inside the distance" also makes a lot of sense, but the -205 odds are a bit long for my tastes.

Bet

• Lucas Almeida +145 (DraftKings/BetMGM/Caesars)

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Cody Durden

One of the UFC's most criminally underrated fighters comes into a fourth consecutive bout as an underdog despite a four-fight winning streak. That's Cody Durden, who is 5-2-1 overall for the UFC, and who has been favored in just one fight (with another as roughly a pick'em).

The USA Wrestling tattoo on his shoulder gives a pretty strong indication of his fighting style, as does his streak of three straight bouts with at least four takedowns.

Durden's a relentless wrestler with an extremely high fight IQ on the ground. It's typically hard for flyweights to hold each other down for extended periods, but Durden prioritizes position, then damage, then submission attempts – in that order – when working from the top, leading to some dominant performances.

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I've been extremely impressed by the growth in the striking game from the southpaw, who excels in opposite-stance matchups by dominating the lead hand and lead foot battles and then striking into grappling range.

Unfortunately, Tagir Ulanbekov is also a southpaw, which limits one of Durden's strengths on the feet. Ulanbekov is also primarily a grappler, with a 3.81 takedown rate per 15 minutes.

This fight likely comes down to whichever fighter can get – and keep – top position longer. I like the bigger, stronger Durden's chances to do so. If you like the favorite, consider Ulanbekov's submission odds. Three of Durden's four pro losses came via submission, and he occasionally leaves himself open to chokes while hunting takedowns.

Still, Durden showed much better submission defense in his last fight against Jake Hadley, so I'll take the underdog money on him down to +130.

Bet

• Cody Durden +150 (DraftKings)

Casey O'Neill vs. Ariane Lipski

Once one of the most promising prospects in women's MMA, Casey O'Neill is coming off a rough patch that saw her suffer a torn ACL in the summer of 2022, only to return and take her first professional loss against Jennifer Maia.

I wrote in my UFC 296 Luck Ratings this week about my concern for O'Neill, who's had another fight canceled due to an injury since the Maia loss. What that injury was seems to be an open question, but it's still not a great sign.

With that said, she should be better everywhere than Ariane Lipski. Lipski is a muay Thai stylist with a fairly low output who also lacks the power needed to sway judges or end fights on a low volume of shots. She might be the slightly better technical striker than O'Neill, but that hardly matters if O'Neill doubles her up on attempted strikes.

"King Casey" also has the superior ground game here with a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. She should take care of business fairly easily here – if she's at full strength.

Contrary to my earlier read this week, I have enough doubts that I'm not taking a moneyline here. O'Neill looked fine physically in her loss to Maia, and she should have a bit better timing and sharpness in her second fight back from a major injury.

However, betting Under 2.5 rounds or the fight to end inside the distance could work regardless of O'Neill's health. If she's compromised, Lipski has a shot at ending things early. O'Neill has finished three of her four UFC wins, and she has a shot to do so again at full strength.

Bet

• Casey O'Neill vs. Ariane Lipski Under 2.5 +170 (DraftKings)

Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher

It's been a precipitous fall for Cody Garbrandt, a former bantamweight champion who's now relegated to a second consecutive prelim fight against an unranked opponent.

Garbrandt started both boxing and wrestling at a young age, and he is good at everything – except taking punches. That's obviously a tough weakness to overcome as a professional fighter, and it led to an ugly stretch of four knockout losses in a six-fight span.

Garbrandt bounced back from that most recent knockout loss with a fairly boring win over Trevin Jones, opting for a more conservative approach than he'd previously shown.

I'd expect the same against Brian Kelleher, who's been submitted in the first round of his last two fights. Kelleher isn't much of a knockout threat with just three knockdowns in 15 UFC bouts, but the path of least resistance for the favored Garbrandt is still clearly through his wrestling.

Kelleher could certainly clip Garbrandt with something at any point, but his odds aren't great against a more athletic and technical striker.

How this one plays out ultimately comes down to whether Garbrandt wants to take a risk in hunting finishes, or simply secure another safe win. The former leaves an opening for Kelleher whereas the latter does not.

However, taking Garbrandt's point spread of -3.5 on DraftKings at -115 covers both scenarios. A three-round sweep on the judges' scorecards or a finish would both pay off that bet. My concern over Garbrandt's chin keeps me from loving this bet, but it's my favorite angle for the fight.

Bet

• Cody Garbrandt -3.5 Point Spread (-115 at DraftKings)

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Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa

Irene Aldana looks to rebound from her one-sided loss to now-retired Amanda Nunes in a five-round title fight back in June. It's hard to read too much into that performance since Nunes was many levels ahead of the rest of the pack at women's bantamweight.

Prior to that title fight, Aldana had picked up three wins – all by knockout – in four fights. She has huge power for the division, and she has shown major improvements in her grappling in recent bouts. She surrendered just seven minutes of control time despite six takedowns by Nunes, and 3:28 on three takedowns from Macy Chiasson.

Karol Rosa has alternated wins and losses over her last five bouts with her two most recent win coming via split or majority decision. She's arguably the better technical striker of the pair, but she lacks the stopping power of Aldana.

Rosa is a well-regarded black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, whose best path to victory here is on the ground.

However, Aldana has never been submitted in her career or finished in the UFC. Winning a fight via control time isn't really a viable option these days, so the path to victory for Rosa is pretty narrow.

I'd be fine with laying the juice on Aldana, especially at -180 at Caesars. However, I prefer a sprinkle on Aldana to win inside the distance, which is +300 on DraftKings.

Bet

• Irene Aldana by Finish (small) (+300 at DraftKings)

Alonzo Menifield vs. Dustin Jacoby

Two scary strikers meet on the UFC 296 prelims with the physically imposing Alonzo Menifield taking on the sharp muay Thai of Dustin Jacoby.

Both men have combined for about one takedown per 15 minutes in their UFC careers, so this should be primarily a standup fight.

Jacoby has an extensive background as a professional kickboxer, including an unsuccessful challenge for the Glory middleweight championship. That skill set has served him well in MMA, where he uses all eight limbs effectively, and where he has a very strong 59% striking defense in the UFC octagon.

Jacoby doesn't have huge power for the division, but he has picked up four knockouts in seven victories.

More importantly, he's never been knocked out himself, which is important against the dangerous Menifield. "Atomic" is a less polished striker than Jacoby, but he has massive power in both hands. He's finished six of his seven UFC wins with those stoppages all taking less than seven minutes each.

Cardio is an issue, though. Menifield won the first two rounds in his draw against Jimmy Crute before dropping a 10-8 (thanks to a point deduction) in the third frame. Overall, he's 1-3-1 in UFC fights that make it past the halfway point.

Which is why I'm taking Menifield and Under 1.5 rounds in a Same Game Parlay on DraftKings at +450 – while looking to bet Jacoby live at some point in the second frame. If he can survive the early onslaught, Jacoby's more technical approach will win out in the second half of the fight.

Bets

• Alonzo Menifield & Under 1.5 Rounds SGP (+450 at DraftKings) | Dustin Jacoby Live

Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell

Josh Emmett's planned fight with Giga Chikadze was scrapped late last week, and Bryce "Thug Nasty" Mitchell has stepped in on short notice.

This is a big opportunity for the 16-1 Mitchell against a former (interim) title contender in Emmett. Mitchell looks to build another winning streak following his only career loss late last year.

That defeat came to Ilia Topuria in a bout Mitchell claimed to take at less than 100%. While it's easy for every fighter to make that claim following losses, Mitchell had a string of canceled fights before that, and he seemed to be in dire need of a paycheck.

While I'm not saying he beats Topuria even on his best day, he likely looks better than he did in that bout.

Emmett is coming off his own loss to Topuria, in which he was dominated from bell to bell. The 39-year-old's abilities are fading fast, with a submission loss to Yair Rodriguez in his prior fight.

Emmett is likely the superior striker here, but the diminishing physical skills and grappling weaknesses should make that a nonfactor.

With that said, I don't love the price on Mitchell in a short-notice bout. Emmett has always had excellent cardio, and he fought three consecutive five-round fights before this one.

Mitchell probably needs to finish this fight before Emmett starts to take over late. Fortunately, we can get Mitchell to win inside the distance at +275 on DraftKings. I prefer that to his submission odds at +350 given the relatively close lines, but there's a case to be made for taking the bigger swing.

If Mitchell sells out for a stoppage early and doesn't get one, I'll be looking to hedge with a live bet on Emmett after a round or so.

Bets

• Bryce Mitchell to Win by Submission/KO +275 (DraftKings) | Josh Emmett Live

Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett

I've been wavering on how to handle this fight all week, as we have a fighter in Tony Ferguson who – at his prime – was far better than anything we've seen from Paddy Pimblett.

Of course, that's not the Ferguson we've seen recently. "El Cucuy" is on a six-fight losing skid, and he has taken plenty of damage at 39 years old. Still, this is a massive step down in competition for the veteran.

Fortunately, I was able to lean on the Ferguson vs. Pimblett breakdown from my colleague Dan Tom before making any decisions myself. Dan lays out a somewhat compelling case for Ferguson to pull off one more win in the UFC octagon as a big underdog.

It won't be a big bet from me, but I'm convinced enough to take a sprinkle at Ferguson's moneyline at +250.

Bet

• Tony Ferguson +250 (DraftKings/BetMGM)

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Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson

I like the case that Tony Sartori made in his Rakhmonov vs. Thompson breakdown of this main-card fight between welterweights. Shavkat Rakhmonov is awesome, but it's hard to justify Thompson being a +470 underdog against anyone.

I expect Thompson to solidly outperform his odds in this one – but I still can't see a way for him to win this one outright.

That also means I don't feel confident enough in a Rakhmonov finish to lay -175 on that bet, either.

Which means I'm just going to enjoy this one as a fan without a bet on the line, but I highly recommend checking out Tony's piece if you want some action on this UFC 296 featured bout.

Bet

• Pass

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval

We have an excellent Pantoja vs. Royval breakdown on this one from Dan Tom that covers most of the stylistic points in this bout. Dan made some sharp points about how this one is likely to play out – but I respectfully disagree with his conclusion.

As I mentioned in my UFC 296 Luck Ratings this week, the finishing sequence between these two fighters in their prior meeting was largely due to an eye-poke from Pantoja. Not to take anything away from his ability to take the back – which is excellent – but Royval had won the first round and was landing heavy shots in the second before the errant poke.

Based on that exchange, I took Royval at +148 earlier in the week. I don't love it when the line moves against me, but closing line value (CLV) doesn't typically mean as much in MMA as in other sports – with the exception of huge swings due to insider information.

With that said, I obviously love getting an even better price on the underdog here, and would take it down to +140. I'd make Pantoja about a -120 favorite here, mostly due to his five-round experience.

Bet

• Brandon Royval +160 (DraftKings/Caesars/BetRivers)

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington

For full analysis of Saturday's Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington title fight, check out my full Edwards vs. Covington preview.

The line has moved a bit for the UFC 296 main event since that article first published, but it's still within my threshold for where I'd bet it.

Bet

• Leon Edwards -160 (BetMGM/Caesars)