Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval Odds
The UFC 296 co-main event in Las Vegas on Saturday night features a rematch for the flyweight title between reigning champion Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval.
The first Pantoja vs. Royval encounter went down during the summer of 2021, and it was a fun fight for as long as it lasted.
Pantoja was able to get the better of Royval by capitalizing on some mistakes. However, Royval has since bounced back with three straight wins to earn his title shot in Saturday night's UFC 296 pay-per-view co-headliner.
Although this division is arguably in rematch fatigue territory, most people have this bout pegged as the potential Fight of the Night given the excitement that flyweights traditionally bring to the table.
Let's look at the Pantoja vs. Royval odds, prediction and betting pick for Saturday, Dec. 16.
Tale of the Tape
| Pantoja | Royval | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 26-5 | 15-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:11 | 6:28 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 125 pounds | 124.5 pounds |
| Reach | 67 inches | 68 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 4/16/1990 | 8/16/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.4 | 3.5 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 38% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.8 | 2.6 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 100% |
| TD Def | 66% | 39% |
| Submission Avg | 1.0 | 2.3 |
Despite their first fight taking place only two years ago, both fighters have continued to show new folds in their games.
Pantoja, who looked like he was running out of gas before beating Royval back in 2021, was able to demonstrate the ability to fight hard for a full 25 minutes in his Fight of the Year performance opposite Brandon Moreno at UFC 290 earlier this year.
Although Pantoja appears to be a marauding madman at first glance, the newly minted champion possesses some excellent striking instincts when it comes to countering and extending exchanges.
Whether he's facing orthodox or southpaw opposition, Pantoja does a decent job of prodding with his lead hand to set up power shots from the rear.
When feeling in stride, Pantoja will combo his strikes to the legs and body, often crashing into clinch space.
From there, the American Top Team representative possesses solid clinch striking and takedowns alike.
And when Pantoja can get on top of his opposition, the sitting champion displays phenomenal ground striking and an ability to snatch backs that few can hold a candle to.
Alexandre Pantoja ground-and-pound 🤌 pic.twitter.com/2zBacuyt9I
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) July 5, 2023
That said, Pantoja is far from a defensive savant standing and will need to respect the offensive repertoire of Royval.
An all-action madman in his own right, Royval has been painting some borderline masterpieces on the prelims (where the UFC matchmakers sadly seem to relegate flyweight contenders).
From sporadic spinning attacks to extending exchanges on the fly, Royval appears to be a dynamic southpaw striker who embraces the art of eight limbs.
Like many Factory X fighters, Royval is no stranger when it comes to utilizing tricky feints and footwork to set up his advances.
Royval also seems to have a knack for landing intercepting knees in the chaos of collisions, which could be something worth watching out for this Saturday.
The title challenger, who is also a Brazillian jiu-jitsu black belt, is no slouch whenever the action hits the mat.
However, Royval – as seen in his first fight with Pantoja – is not beyond being submitted due to his propensity to allow for back exposure in scrambles.
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Pantoja vs. Royval Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the sitting champion, listing Pantoja -190 and Royval +160 as of this writing on Thursday afternoon.
Although it's nice to see Pantoja getting some deserved respect regarding his opening odds, I don't blame anyone for taking a stab at an underdog like Royval for anything north of +160.
That said, I'm not sure I like the American's chances after looking closer at the tape.
Aside from the fact that Pantoja is 3-1 against UFC-level southpaws and is 2-0 in career rematches, the Brazilian warhorse possesses the two key attributes that have proven to be stylistic kryptonite for Royval: the ability to hit counter right hands and the ability to punish back exposure.
Pantoja – Royval II:
Simplicity Offense vs Spinning Shit
*featuring* absolutely NO defenseHave to think Pantoja's direct and deliberate attacks get it done again
The dynamics of the fight haven't changed from their first match-up
If it ain't broke, don't fix it pic.twitter.com/MfnjbyHFCQ— Open Note Grappling (@OpenNoteGrapple) December 8, 2023
Despite initially being worried about Pantoja's cardio after their first encounter, the 33-year-old veteran has proven that his durability and staying power are good for five rounds if need be.
Royval, on the other hand, is a fighter whom I've constantly questioned durability-wise given the weight cuts he puts his large and long frame through to make this division (as tall fighters in their 30s are the usual suspects for fragility in these lighter-weight classes).
From repetitive shoulder issues to having his ankle give out on him in fights, Royval seems to be dancing on the line of diminishing returns regarding any size advantages in this spot.
Add in the fact that five of Royval's last six opponents have tagged him hard with counter right hands, and I believe there's some quiet value in sprinkling on Pantoja's knockout prop (which can be found in the neighborhood of +440).
Not only has Pantoja finished high-level fighters with strikes both standing and on the floor, but "KO/TKO" props also tend to cover disqualifications and injury stoppages alike.
Still, I'd be careful about getting too cute on attacking the board in a fight that can go in plenty of directions.
I ended up going heavy on Pantoja earlier this week at -175, but I have a hard time suggesting you tail me at anything north of -200.
The Picks: Alexandre Pantoja (-190 at Caesars, play to -200) | Pantoja by KO (+440 at FanDuel)
