Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa Odds
Recent UFC title challenger Irene Aldana returns to action with a bout against Karol Rosa on the UFC 296 preliminary card on Saturday.
It's a pivotal opportunity for both of the top-10 bantamweight contenders.
Here's my breakdown and the Aldana vs. Rosa odds, prediction and betting pick for UFC 296.
Tale of the Tape
| Aldana | Rosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-7 | 17-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:36 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 136 lbs. | 135.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/26/1988 | 12/30/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.9 | 5.4 |
| SS Accuracy | 39% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.7 | 4.2 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 48% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.17 | 1.38 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 47% |
| TD Def | 75% | 68% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Aldana looks to rebound from her one-sided loss to now-retired Amanda Nunes in a five-round title fight back in June. It's hard to read too much into that performance since Nunes was many levels ahead of the rest of the pack at women's bantamweight.
Prior to that title fight, Aldana had picked up three wins – all by knockout – in four fights. She has huge power for the division, and she has shown major improvements in her grappling in recent bouts. She surrendered just seven minutes of control time despite six takedowns by Nunes, and 3:28 on three takedowns from Macy Chiasson.
Rosa has alternated wins and losses over her last five bouts with her two most recent win coming via split or majority decision. She's arguably the better technical striker of the pair, but she lacks the stopping power of Aldana.
Rosa is a well-regarded black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, whose best path to victory here is on the ground.
However, Aldana has never been submitted in her career or finished in the UFC.
Aldana vs. Rosa Pick
Winning a fight via control time isn't really a viable option these days, so the path to victory for Rosa is pretty narrow.
I'd be fine with laying the juice on Aldana, especially at -180 at Caesars.
However, I prefer a sprinkle on Aldana to win inside the distance, which is +300 on DraftKings.
The Pick: Irene Aldana by Finish (+300 at DraftKings)
