Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson Odds
| Rakhmonov Odds | -650 |
| Thompson Odds | +455 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-180 / +140) |
| Venue | T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas |
| Time | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ PPV |
| Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Check out the new user DraftKings promo code offer before placing your UFC 296 bets. | |
We have a battle between two ranked welterweights on Saturday on the UFC 296 pay-per-view main card as Shavkat Rakhmonov takes on Stephen Thompson in what I like to dub "the people's main event."
A win for either fighter will immediately propel him into the title conversation, and with how talented both of these guys are, an instant classic could be brewing this weekend in Las Vegas.
Will Rakhmonov take care of business as a massive favorite? Or can "Wonderboy" make one last push for the 170-pound strap?
Here's a look at the Rakhmonov vs. Thompson odds, prediction and betting pick for UFC 296 on Saturday, Dec. 16.
Tale of the Tape
| Rakhmonov | Thompson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-0 | 17-6-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:03 | 14:51 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'0" |
| Weight | 171 pounds | 171 pounds |
| Reach | 77 inches | 75 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/23/1994 | 2/11/1983 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| SS Accuracy | 59% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.49 | 0.27 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 41% |
| TD Def | 100% | 64% |
| Submission Avg | 1.5 | 0.0 |
Look, I have been a Rakhmonov-truther as long as anyone. He is one of my favorite fighters in the world, and he's also one of the most talented pound-for-pound talents we've seen enter the UFC over the past couple of years.
With five straight finishes since joining this promotion (and all 17 of his professional career coming via finish), his hype is now mainstream, and basically everyone has hopped on this train and thinks he will be champion of this division sooner rather than later.
And he could blow right past Thompson on Saturday just as he has done against every single man to cross his path in the cage.
But at what point does the hype go too far?
Should Shavkat be a big favorite here?
Absolutely. But I don't think you can justify pricing Thompson at +475 against anyone, even against the guy who I think is the best 170-pounder in the world.
That is a price tag usually saved for guys who will never see a title shot in their careers, but Wonderboy is the No. 6-ranked UFC welterweight contender and has been in the octagon with some of the best fighters the UFC has seen.
Thompson beat Rory MacDonald when he was still relatively in his prime, and he then fought to a draw against Tyron Woodley in their first title fight before falling by a closely contested majority decision in the rematch.
Even as Thompson has aged, he still has beaten legit fighters in the division like Jorge Masvidal, Vicente Luque, Geoff Neal and Kevin Holland. Thompson is an elite kickboxer that can carry favor with the judges due to his high-volume, high-precision attack.
Furthermore, he can certainly draw damage, and while Rakhmonov has never lost, he did take some damage during that Neal fight and proved that he can be hit. Neal stunned him with a jab at the end of the first round and landed some great combos throughout the second that led to some visible damage.
Then the fireworks came in the third as Neal wobbled Rakhmonov and nearly sat him down with an elbow before Rakhmonov recovered and eventually secured the submission victory.
However, that moment showed me that while Rakhmonov is as tough as they come, he is capable of getting caught.
Rakhmonov vs. Thompson Pick
Do I think Rakhmonov is going to win? Absolutely. I don't think anyone at 170 pounds is going to beat this guy until he has the belt.
But I will never not take "Wonderboy" at +475 in this spot, which carries an implied probability of 17.4%.
That number is available via BetRivers, and it's 15-50 cents longer than the majority of the rest of the betting market.
While Rakhmonov ultimately beat Neal, he was put to the test for the first time in his career. There were moments when Neal put him in danger, and I don't think it is completely out of the realm of possibility that Thompson and his elite striking can also do the same.
I'm taking a small flier on UFC 296's biggest underdog on Saturday night.
The Pick: Stephen Thompson (+475 at BetRivers) | Play to +460
