Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett Odds
In what is arguably one of the most eye-catching matchups on Saturday's UFC 296 pay-per-view main card, Tony Ferguson finds himself fancying a fistfight with Paddy Pimblett.
A fighter who could once lay claim as the uncrowned lightweight king, Ferguson has since fallen into a shocking career slump while losing his last six fights.
Subsequently, the UFC has booked Ferguson in a matchup that takes the term "crossroads fight" to a new level.
Not only is Pimblett more than a decade younger than Ferguson, but the English fighter also appears to be primed for promotional hype should he add a big name like "El Cucuy" to his resume.
Here's a look at the Ferguson vs. Pimblett odds, prediction and betting pick for UFC 296 on Saturday, Dec. 16.
Tale of the Tape
| Ferguson | Pimblett | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 26-9 | 20-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:29 | 7:45 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155.5 lbs. | 155.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/12/1984 | 1/3/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.0 | 4.2 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.26 | 3.48 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 41% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 25% |
| TD Def | 66% | 56% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 2.4 |
Despite both fighters being much more different than they are alike, they each share certain quirks when it comes to defense and decision-making.
Not afraid to improvise on the fly, Pimblett is a creative fighter who likes to take chances – particularly in the offensive grappling realm.
Coming off the Cage Warriors circuit from across the pond, Pimblett was able to garner a ton of hype in the UFC through his scrappy submission savvy.
However, after getting taxed and tested on both the regional scene and the big stage, Pimblett has been forced to further round out his MMA game.
Although "The Baddy" still has a bad habit of lifting his chin in exchanges, he has made measurable efforts to keep his feet beneath him as he improves his offensive technique.
Pimblett appears to have natural power in his crosses and hooks, as well as some hard snap to his kicks.
I suspect that the latter will serve Pimblett well given Ferguon's history with said strikes, but the 28-year-old will still need to respect what's coming back at him.
An offensive marauder who was, at one point, the closest embodiment of the boogeyman that we've seen in the UFC octagon, Ferguson is an inherent pressure fighter who isn't afraid to come forward.
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Whether he's setting up spinning counters or utilizing his underrated jab to half-step his way into kill shots, Ferguson is a free-flowing artist who operates at a unique beat.
Ferguson's flow may not be as smooth as it was in his prime, but the former interim titleholder will still keep things spicy with everything from hard kicks to the occasional takedown.
And when the action hits the mat, Ferguson – for better or worse – still favors slicing elbows and submission attempts over a more positionally aware approach.
Ferguson vs. Pimblett Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the younger fighter, listing Pimblett -310 and Ferguson +250 as of this writing.
Despite this sport priming me to always expect the worst for aging fighters, I ended up having some sobering reminders when going back to look at the tape.
Although Ferguson is clearly past his prime, the 39-year-old veteran has quietly shown some signs of life amid this run of seeming self-destruction.
For example, it's easy to forget that Ferguson was deceptively competitive with everyone who scored stoppages against him, hurting each and every one of them before getting finished.
Not only did he seriously stun Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler, but he also had Nate Diaz hobbling badly from leg kicks in a fight that he took on incredibly short notice.
And in his most recent fight opposite Bobby Green, Ferguson was looking good on the feet (stumbling Green on multiple occasions) before receiving a bad eye-poke just three minutes into the first frame.
In fact, Ferguson was able to accomplish half of said success by countering his opponent's naked kicks – something that Pimblett has a bad habit of.
It may feel crazy to support someone who is on the downtrend of a six-fight skid, but I think we could all feel even crazier if we don't take a shot on the more skilled fighter who is arguably on the wrong end of a 2-1 spread.
For that reason, I'll be riding or dying with Ferguson one last time.
I have no illusions that Ferguson "is back"; this is just simply a value play on the more proven product, and the odds are likely to improve as fight time approaches.
If you're not feeling a side or are looking to hedge a scenario in which Ferguson fully falls apart, then I suggest taking a serious look at the Under 2.5 Rounds total (which is currently sitting at more than affordable prices in the neighborhood of -120).
The Pick: Tony Ferguson (+250 at DraftKings)
