Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC 296 prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's pay-per-view event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +14.1 units and a +4.8% ROI per bet to date.
This week marks the return of squad members Clint MacLean, Liam Heslin, Billy Ward, Dan Tom, Tony Sartori and Bryan Fonseca.
Check out their picks for Saturday's event below. UFC 296 streams on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99) following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and ESPN2 (8 p.m. ET).
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
(ESPN Bet is now live! Get ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.)
Clint MacLean: Casey O'Neill by KO (+510)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
"King" Casey O'Neill is making her return to the UFC cage, and she is doing it off a very disappointing loss against now-cut Jennifer Maia.
O'Neill is returning against the "Queen of Violence" herself, and Ariane Lipski has been surging recently with very impressive performances in back-to-back fights. O'Neill being such a large favorite in this spot is odd because of the recent performances of both women.
The issue here for Lipski is that she has a tendency to brawl and has extremely suspect durability when doing so.
O'Neill is coming off an ACL injury that sidelined her for some time, and in her last fight, she looked noticeably slower.
ACL injuries take quite some time to fully recover from, and about now is the time when we should see her return to form. Combine that with her training at Xtreme Couture with coach Eric Nicksick, and I believe she will be ready to go for this challenge.
If she can get inside, Lipski won't be able to take the damage.
The Pick: Casey O'Neill by KO (+510 at BetRivers)
Liam Heslin: Cody Garbrandt by Submission (+1400) | Fight Ends by Submission (+550)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Objectively speaking, Cody Garbrandt to win by by submission has to be long odds in this matchup with Brian Kelleher because he is 0-0 career to the submission prop and Kelleher is a proven Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner.
That being said, Kelleher is coming off a serious neck surgery and two consecutive losses via first-round submission (both via rear-naked choke) against stud prospects Mario Bautista and Umar Nurmagomedov.
Since arriving in the UFC in 2017, seven of Kelleher's 15 appearances have ended via submission: three wins and four losses. Now, Kelleher is past his prime at 37, and his best chance to win may be to snatch his own trademark guillotine against Garbrandt.
I see both men having a path to a submission victory, but I think Garbrandt's work with BJJ legend Rubens "Cobrinha" Charles as well as Ohio wrestling legend Lance Palmer will set him up to take top position and potentially secure his first rear-naked choke.
The Picks: Cody Garbrandt by Submission (+1400 at FanDuel) | Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher Ends by Submission (+550 at FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Alonzo Menifield in Round 1 (+700) | Shamil Gaziev in Round 1 (+450)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
It’s the last event of the year, so I’m overdelivering/blatantly cheating (depending on your perspective) with a pair of Prop Squad picks. While there’s no direct correlation between the selections, they were both made using similar logic, so I’m splitting my bet this week and including them together.
Both picks are on underdogs in the heavier-division fights to win in the very first round. The way I see it, if either of these two giants is going to pull off a win, it will almost certainly come sooner rather than later.
Shamil Gaziev is opening the night with his heavyweight fight against Martin Buday. A newcomer to the UFC octagon, Gaziev is 11-0 as a pro with 10 finishes. Every last one of those finishes came within six minutes, and eight of the 10 in the first round.
Which obviously raises questions about his cardio, especially against a plodding fighter such as Buday. Since joining the promotion, three of Buday’s four wins have needed the help of the judges. Gaziev needs an early blitz to have a chance here.
Menifield is taking on Dustin Jacoby at light heavyweight in the featured prelim bout of the night. He’s 7-3 in the UFC with six finishes – all of them in seven minutes or less. Overall, Menifield is 13-0 in fights than end within seven minutes, and he's 1-3-1 in fights going longer.
For both fighters, that means their moneylines should be far closer to their odds of picking up first round finishes. In fact, they should be damn near the same, since either fighter hitting the stools probably means they’ve lost.
I’m taking both picks here while hoping to just hit one of them and ending the year with one more Prop Squad cash.
The Picks: Alonzo Menifield in Round 1 (+700 at DraftKings) | Shamil Gaziev in Round 1 (+450 at BetRivers)
Dan Tom: Josh Emmett in Round 2 (+1200), in Round 3 (+1800)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to split my bet on some high-value hot rounds in the newly minted main-card opener between Josh Emmett (+160) and Bryce Mitchell (-200).
For those familiar with my gambling style, "hot rounds" are in reference to rounds with a high potential for a particular fighter to find a finish.
Although Emmett traditionally gets the majority of his finishes in the first round, the added context of Mitchell taking this fight on short notice arguably shifts the dynamic of the matchup.
As we've seen in Mitchell's last two contests (which both were against similar wrestle-boxing archetypes), the Arkansas native tends to tire against fighters who can compete with him in wrestling and scrambling scenarios.
Not only is Emmett an athletic powerhouse who wrestled well at a collegiate level, but the Team Alpha Male representative has rock-solid conditioning and should be well-equipped to deal with Mitchell's style given a career spent training with high-level grapplers.
For that reason, I believe that the lines on the Emmett side of the equation are ripe for the picking considering the tricky recency bias that's baked into the prices on the board.
So long as Emmett survives Mitchell's early storm, then he should be in good standing to punish his opponent in rounds 2 and 3 for a potential finish.
The Picks: Josh Emmett in Round 2 (+1200 at FanDuel) | Emmett in Round 3 (+1800 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Alexandre Pantoja by KO (+475)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET
In UFC 296's co-main event on Saturday, champion Alexandre Pantoja defends the flyweight belt against the No. 2-ranked contender, Brandon Royval.
These two squared off in August 2021 with Pantoja securing a submission victory early in the second round in what was primarily a grappling-affair. I think Pantoja takes care of business inside the distance once again, but this time, let's look to take a flier on him to do so via KO/TKO at +475 odds via BetRivers.
Pantoja's striking is underrated, which is why this line is so long. He demonstrated his striking prowess in his title win over Brandon Moreno, knocking down the former champion once and landing 129 significant strikes.
While Moreno survived to the bell in that matchup, other fights to have fallen to Pantoja have not been so lucky, including Matt Schnell and Wilson Reis, both of whom lost via KO. Royval is a very talented fighter whose only two losses are to the two best flyweights in the UFC, but both of those defeats came inside the distance, including his knockout loss to Moreno.
I think the confidence aspect is also heavily on Pantoja's side here, considering he is now defending a belt for the first time in his career and is going against a guy he has already gotten out of there before the judges' input was needed.
Pantoja throws in more volume and at a much more accurate clip than Royval, which is part of the reason I think he will be willing to let his hands go and keep this fight standing during different spurts of the scrap.
If enough of those shots get through cleanly, then +475 turns into a very live number.
The Pick: Alexandre Pantoja by KO (+475 at BetRivers)
Bryan Fonseca: Leon Edwards by Round 1 KO (+900), by Round 5 KO (+2800)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
Colby Covington has a notably strong chin and elite cardio.
But in combat sports, your chin is durable until it isn't.
The 35-year-old Covington hasn't fought since March 2022, when he predictably beat Jorge Masvidal by decision in a long-awaited grudge match.
But Covington beat Masvidal after Kamaru Usman knocked him out and derailed him, and he beat Tyron Woodley after losses to Usman and Gilbert Burns.
Leon Edwards became the survivor of the welterweight merry-go-round between Usman, Covington and Woodley after knocking out Usman in Round 5 of their UFC 278 bout and then escaping with a decision win at UFC 286.
But Usman then is better than Covington is now, and it's not close, in my opinion.
Why the first-round knockout longshot sprinkle for Edwards? Inactivity, and Covington is just straight-up overrated, especially in 2023. Edwards had an amazing come-from-behind win over Usman, but he proved it wasn't a fluke in the rematch, making improvements in his ascent.
Now the 32-year-old titleholder is right in his prime.
Why Round 5? This is the accumulation-of-punishment sprinkle. Edwards is precise, and Covington does have the cardio to last. Round 1 is for another Edwards one-shot KO – in a year of surprisingly quick high-profile finishes – and Round 5 is for Edwards again putting it all together late, as he did against Usman.
The Pick: Leon Edwards by Round 1 KO (+900 at DraftKings) | Edwards by Round 5 KO (+2800 at DraftKings)
