Malcolm Gordon vs. Jimmy Flick Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Malcolm Gordon vs. Jimmy Flick at UFC 297 on Saturday, Jan. 20 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
As with every other UFC event in 2024 (exactly 1), flyweights will kick off a fight card when Malcolm Gordon meets Jimmy Flick on Saturday at UFC 297 in Toronto.
This could be a get-right spot for Canadian and betting favorite Gordon, who fights on home soil while looking to end a two-fight skid when he meets Flick, who's 0-2 with two stoppage losses since returning from a brief retirement.
Let's dig into the Gordon vs. Flicks odds and betting pick.
Tale of the Tape
| Gordon | Flick | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-7 | 16-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:13 | 6:47 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 68" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/19/1990 | 9/7/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.93 | 1.99 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.26 | 5.05 |
| SS Defense | 42% | 38% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.61 | 1.66 |
| TD Acc | 30% | 27% |
| TD Def | 9% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 4.4 |
Saturday's opener features a pair of fighters who, if I ranked every UFC fighter, would be in the bottom 1% for durability (11 combined knockout losses between them in 43 professional fights).
Gordon is the superior striker of the pair with five knockout wins.
The Canadian generally prefers to grapple to protect his chin.
Jimmy Flick transitioning from a caught high head kick into a flying triangle. pic.twitter.com/Q9ZwxTjSqh
— Feño 🏴 (@fenoxsky) January 17, 2024
However, he won't have to worry about any power coming from Flick, and Gordon's best game plan would be to sprawl and brawl against a submission specialist.
Flick is the better wrestler and more likely to get on top early, justifying a bet on the underdog side at plus money.
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Gordon vs. Flick Pick
This fight opened around a pick'em, but the Gordon market has taken off recently, climbing to more than -200 (66.7% implied) as of writing, an adjustment of more than 10% in implied win probability over the past week (-130 or 56.5% last Friday).
Line movement like that makes me wonder if Flick is carrying an undisclosed injury.
Gordon ultimately missed weight on Friday, his second consecutive weight miss at flyweight.
I also have difficulty justifying the juicy price of the fight to reach a decision (projected +213, listed +275) compared to the divisional average (54%). While both fighters are chinny, neither carries much power of their own, and there should be a lot of stalling/stalemate time if these two grapple for extended stretches.
I like Flick both on the moneyline (projected +148, listed +180) and the fight to reach a decision (+275). I'm inclined to bet against the Gordon finish and split a wager between these two. However, if Flick is indeed injured – which would explain the drastic line movement – he is likelier to get finished, and I'd lose both bets. I'll bet Flick for now and think more about adding the distance prop.
Additionally, in the prop market, I like Flick by submission (projected +254, listed +400) or Gordon to win by decision (projected +319, listed +550).
The Pick: Jimmy Flick (+180, 0.25u) at Caesars Sportsbook
