Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva Odds
The co-headliner for UFC 297 on Saturday features a women's bantamweight title fight between Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva.
Pennington, who made her promotional debut more than a decade ago via the 18th season of "The Ultimate Fighter," quietly finds herself on a late-career renaissance.
Currently riding a five-fight winning streak, Pennington has earned what will be her second swing at bat regarding UFC title shots.
Although Amanda Nunes is no longer the incumbent champion, Silva represents a new generation of Brazilian talent heading into the shot at the vacant belt.
Her submission win over Holly Holm may have been overturned to a no-contest, but Silva is technically undefeated as a career bantamweight at 7-0-1.
Tale of the Tape
| Pennington | Bueno Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-9 | 10-2-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:09 | 8:31 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 134.75 pounds | 135 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 66" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/5/1988 | 8/22/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.34 | 4.71 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.93 | 0.35 |
| TD Acc | 27% | 50% |
| TD Def | 63% | 68% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 1.6 |
With both women being incredibly well-rounded fighters, this battle could go in a couple of different directions.
Although Pennington is primarily associated with her boxing savvy, the 35-year-old veteran quietly gets a lot of her work done in the closed quarters.
An avid clinch fighter, Pennington can't seem to help herself when it comes to smothering action in close.
From her patent dirty boxing off collar ties to takedown attempts that keep her opposition honest, Pennington has been able to consistently score while simultaneously killing the clock during this recent run.
Pennington is also an underrated grappler when the action hits the floor, but I'm not sure how eager she'll be to tangle with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt like Silva.
Training with Marcos de Matta (“Parrumpinha”), Silva's submission prowess has only sharpened since moving shop to American Top Team in South Florida.
Whether Silva is looking to lock up front chokes or is snatching up her patent armbars, the 32-year-old has proven to be dangerous from multiple positions.
That said, Silva still has a fully-fledged muay Thai arsenal standing – something she brought over from her days as a Chute Boxe fighter.
Akin to her former stablemate Charles Oliveira, Silva also uses a wide variety of kicks and knees to help encourage her opposition to close the distance.
For that reason, I suspect that Silva's muay Thai savvy will pair nicely with Pennington's wrestle-boxing swagger from both an action and a style perspective.
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Pennington vs. Bueno Silva Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the younger fighter, listing Silva -166 and Pennington +144 as of this writing.
Despite being a big fan and supporter of Pennington throughout this late-career renaissance that she's been on, I believe that Silva is the justified favorite in this spot.
Speaking from experience, Silva has been a quiet little money train for those who've been supporting her since she made the jump up from flyweight (especially when diving into the context of some of her losses and weird results).
More importantly, Silva presents a ton of trappings for Pennington from a stylistic perspective.
In open space, Pennington's dipping propensities due to her boxing-centric style could run her into the unforgiving kicks and knees of Silva (as competent kickers have provided Pennington with problems in both victory and defeat).
And when it comes to Pennington's clinching sensibilities, she could easily get more than she bargains for in the form of strikes and submissions alike.
I don't see many places where Pennington can take shelter in this matchup, so I ended up playing Silva pretty heavily in this spot.
I kicked for coverage given the price I got for Silva's moneyline at -160, but I don't blame you if you're not as confident as I am in "Sheetara" at the current asking prices.
For that reason (and because of the stylistic analysis given above), I suggest taking a gander at Silva to win "inside the distance," which can be found at +135 odds at FanDuel as of this writing.
The Pick: Mayra Bueno Silva by KO/TKO or Submission (+135 at FanDuel)
