Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC 297 prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's pay-per-view event in Toronto.
This week we're joined by honorary Prop Squad member and longtime MMA journalist Chuck Mindenhall, one of the most creative and important voices in the sport.
Currently cohost of The Ringer MMA Show with Ariel Helwani and Petesy Carroll, Chuck has also written for The Athletic and MMA Fighting, and his well-respected work has been cited in "Best American Sportswriting."
Thankfully for us, Chuck also says he comes from a long line of fellow degenerates – the good kind – so the Man In The Hat (MITH) was a natural fit for this week's UFC 297 prop betting lineup.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +3.1 units a +1.0% ROI per bet to date.
Can guest picker Chuck get the Squad back on track after a recent dry spell? Check out his prediction and the rest of the squad's UFC 297 prop bets below.
(As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.)
*Matchup odds as of Saturday evening and via FanDuel. Get the most out of your UFC 297 betting action with our FanDuel promo code.
Tony Sartori: Malcolm Gordon by Round 1 KO (+450)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:35 p.m. ET
Kicking off UFC 297 is a flyweight bout between Malcolm Gordon (-205) and Jimmy Flick (+172). Like most of us in the MMA betting community, betting flyweight "Unders" is one of my favorite things to root for in this sport.
Oddsmakers are aligned with us fellow flyweight under enthusiasts for this bout; the line is currently set at 1.5 rounds with the juice toward the under. If we are getting a quick finish here, then it is most likely by the hands of Gordon, who has been bet all the way up to the two-dollar mark after this fight opened around a pick'em.
This market behavior is almost certainly not due to anything about Gordon specifically, but rather, the completely deteriorated chin of Flick. Submission specialists usually have a tough time gaining traction in this sport, and if the chin is gone, then it is almost always a sign that the door is about to close.
A Contender Series veteran, Flick disposed of Cody Durden by submission and immediately garnered some attention. However, he got humbled quickly with two straight knockout losses to Charles Johnson and Alessandro Costa.
Neither of those guys carries a crazy amount of power, but it just goes to prove that Flick's chin is his biggest weakness as six of his seven professional losses have come via knockout. Five of those six knockouts occurred within the first seven minutes of the fight.
Gordon is certainly a flawed fighter, but he is absolutely capable of taking advantage of this glass chin. Five of his 14 professional wins have come via knockout, with four of those five knockouts occurring in the first round.
He is capable of locking in submissions, but Gordon will want no part of the mat against a submission specialist like Flick. Gordon boasts a three-inch reach advantage and will want to keep this fight standing, two factors that also bode well for a quick knockout.
We are in Toronto on Saturday, and the UFC is presenting Gordon an opportunity for an easy knockout in front of his home city to kick the night off with a bang.
The Pick: Malcolm Gordon by Round 1 KO (+450 at FanDuel)
Clint MacLean: Jasmine Jasudavicius by KO (+600)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Jasmine Jasudavicius has a huge opportunity in a setup fight on Saturday at UFC 297.
The UFC has gifted Jasudavicius (-375) an opponent in Priscila Cachoeira (+300) who has proven to have absolutely no ability to grapple, and now Jasudavicius is on the big stage in front of her hometown crowd.
Although Cachoeira gets submitted more often than getting knocked out, generally we see Jasudavicius get extremely aggressive with her ground and pound.
I fully expect Jas to do whatever she wants on the mat, and once she finds herself in a dominant position, to unleash on her opponent with punches and elbows.
I don't know that Cachoeira can be cleanly KO'd, but the referee will probably need to save her on Saturday if Jasudavicius has her way.
The KO betting market for Jasudavicius is all over the place, so be sure to shop around for the best price. Among the regulated sportsbook options, Betway has a market-best +600, which a dollar or two better than most other books.
The Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius by KO (+600 at Betway)
Billy Ward: Point Deduction – Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+2000)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Any time a sportsbook offers a prop at the same line for every fight/game/event, it gets my attention. Mainly because it’s just lazy; if you’re going to copy my homework, can’t you at least change the answers a little?
But also, there’s no way they can be “right,” right? The true probability of a point to be deducted from notorious cheater Priscila Cachoeira is almost certainly higher than gentlemanly Neil Magny, for example.
Here are some career highlights of “Zombie Girl”: In 2021, rather than defend a choke by traditional means, she decided to stick her finger in the eye of Gillian Robertson. In 2022, besides some blatant fence-grabbing, she also tried to pull Miranda Maverick's top off.
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That’s besides the garden-variety fence-grabbing and fish-hooking we’ve come to expect in most of her fights.
So far, Cachoeira has gotten away with it. However, I expect Jasmine Jasudavicius and her camp to have the ref on high alert coming into this one.
Jasudavicius is no angel herself, getting away with a pretty blatant braid-grab that she turned into a big hook in her last bout, so we’ve got multiple outs here. That extra vigilance from the official swings both ways.
While it’s still not overly likely that we see anything more than a warning here – it’s 20-to-1 odds. That’s worth a little sprinkle in my book.
The Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Priscila Cachoeira – Point to Be Deducted (+2000 at DraftKings)
Liam Heslin: Gillian Robertson by KO (+950)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
In the first fight on the ESPNews prelims, I see an opportunity with the Gillian Robertson (-295) vs. Polyana Viana (+240) matchup.
Robertson is essentially even money to finish this fight inside the distance. However, if you shop around, you can see her KO odds as high as +950.
I'm not sure why there's such a huge difference between the inside-the-distance and the KO lines.
In her pre-fight interviews, Robertson has said she wants to score a knockout win in front of her home country on Saturday night, and her only other KO to date came at UFC 240, which also took place in Canada. That's encouraging in terms of our betting prospects.
Additionally, the strawweight fighter is likely to find opportunities against Viana, who is often willing to pull guard to get the fight to the mat. However, Robertson can absolutely punish the Brazilian fighter with positional dominance, ground-and-pound elbows, and pressure passing if and when it gets there.
Simply put, Robertson is going to want to live up to her "Savage" nickname in front of a big live crowd that will undoubtedly be on her side.
Only 1% of Tapology voters predicted a Robertson KO, but the markets are starting to wake up, so I'd go ahead and grab this one sooner rather than later at Betway.
The Pick: Gillian Robertson by KO (+950 at Betway)
Dan Tom: Brad Katona in Round 2 (+850), Round 3 (+1400)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
For this week's Prop Squad submission, I decided to split my bet on a couple of hot rounds in a UFC 297 featured prelim between Brad Katona (-210) and Garrett Armfield (+176).
Whenever I use the term "hot rounds," I'm referring to rounds that have solid value in regards to the finishing potential for a particular fighter.
Sprinkling on rounds can also be a sneaky way to get action in on inflated favorites who would otherwise be out of your price range (should they have a potential for finishing, of course).
Although Katona has traditionally been a fighter who goes to decisions at this level, his last fight – which was a barnburner – reminded us that Katona is more than just a grappler as MMA is a matchup-dependent game.
That said, Katona's Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt will likely come in handy opposite Armfield.
Not only do all of Armfield's stoppage losses come via submissions after the first round, but a majority of Katona's submission wins (including an uncredited Round 3 submission over Bryce Mitchell on "The Ultimate Fighter") come in the latter rounds.
For that reason, I'll happily fade another do-or-die fighter by sprinkling on Katona to find a finish in either Round 2 or 3.
The Pick: Brad Katona in Round 2 (+850 at DraftKings), Round 3 (+1400 at DraftKings)
Chuck Mindenhall: Arnold Allen by KO (+800)
Honorary MMA Prop Squad Member at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:05 p.m. ET
It can be said that a forgotten man is the most dangerous kind, and that’s where Arnold Allen (+160) shows up for this UFC 297 main-card opener against Movsar Evloev (-190). Wasn’t that long ago he was closing in on a featherweight title fight on the strength of back-to-back TKOs, yet after losing to Max Holloway last spring, Allen slipped right out of everyone’s mind.
What I like is how clean his standup looked in his two previous bouts, those against Calvin Kattar and Dan Hooker. He was piecing up Katter up until the knee injury forced a stoppage, and he landed 58% of his shots in his knockout of Hooker.
Granted, both those guys like to engage on the feet, yet there was a crisp evolution in Allen’s game that stood out to me.
The danger, of course, is that the Russian Evloev will be looking to take down Allen early and often. That’s where the game within the game truly begins because part of Allen’s evolution includes a staunch takedown defense. He’s wiry and springy and deceptively strong.
You know how long it’s been since somebody dumped Allen on the canvas? Six years. Six freaking years. Allen is like a granite statue in there whenever somebody shoots in on a double, rooted to the earth and nearly unbudgeable. A hurricane would have trouble moving him.
Not to say that Evloev can’t. He has scored 33 takedowns in seven UFC fights, which have all been decision victories. He is 17-0 because he knows how to grind people into particles. But I foresee a scenario in which Movsar finds limited success in his attempts and is forced to stand and trade with Allen, who would love nothing better than to be a marksman in front of his adopted home Canadian fans.
If Allen dictates where the fight takes place — and here is gambling that he does — those KO/TKO odds will look less and less long. Once Allen takes the singlet away, the fight changes. And just like that, the forgotten man Arnold Allen will be knocking on the door to a title fight.
Betway has market-best odds of +800, but you can find +750 at FanDuel, DraftKings and other major sportsbooks.
The Pick: Arnold Allen by KO (+800 at Betway)
John LanFranca: Neil Magny by Round 2 or 3 KO (+1800)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
Mike Malott will face his toughest test to date in UFC veteran Neil Magny on Saturday's UFC 297 main card.
While it is difficult to argue against Malott (-350) eventually finding a submission as the most likely outcome of this bout, there are enough questions surrounding the 32-year-old Canadian prospect that lead me to believe the value side of this fight is with Magny (+280).
Malott’s level of competition is severely lacking in comparison to the veteran Magny, who has taken on a gauntlet of the most dangerous men the welterweight division has to offer. All the while, Malott has been in a UFC cage for a total of 15 minutes over the last two-and-a-half years.
Magny is sure to push his signature pace, which is something we have yet to see Malott deal with in his short career.
I expect Magny to be the busier fighter on the feet, which will lead to Malott trying to get the fight to the mat. Malott will hunt for the finish in front of his home crowd, as the pressure is on to deliver the showcase performance the UFC wants in this spot.
If Magny can survive an early onslaught, there is a real chance Malott’s cardio doesn’t hold up and the attrition of the fight wears on the inexperienced fighter. There is simply a greater chance of this happening than the 5.2% implied odds indicate.
We'll take the 18-1 odds offered by FanDuel (under the "KO/TKO Round Combos") for Magny to get it done in the second or third rounds via knockout.
The Pick: Neil Magny by KO/TKO in Rounds 2 or 3 (+1800 at FanDuel)
Bryan Fonseca: Dricus Du Plessis by Round 2 KO (+1200)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
OK, fine, I'll be that guy.
Oh, no, not that guy necessarily, just that guy here who bets against Sean Strickland (-108).
I think Dricus Du Plessis (-108) wins this UFC 297 main event, which is a pick'em as of this writing, and there's a better-than-decent chance he does it by knockout.
So, as a long-shot sprinkle, why not Du Plessis by KO/TKO specifically in Round 2, given his history?
Du Plessis has won eight straight fights, five by KO/TKO. And of those five, four were in Round 2, including both of his victories last year against Derek Brunson and Robert Whittaker.
Du Plessis is 6-0 since entering the UFC and, to me, is primed for a coming-out party against the divisive Strickland, who if we're being honest, should be an underdog coming into this fight even following his performance against a tepid (and declining?!?) Israel Adesanya.
Strickland has five losses, two by knockout – one in 2022 in Round 1 against Alex Pereira, who just steamrolled him in two minutes. The other was also in Round 1 – in 2018 against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, who needed less than four minutes.
The Round 1 KO/TKO prop is +500, and if you're backing Du Plessis, both might be worth a sprinkle. But for my official Prop Squad pick this week, I'm going with Round 2.
The Pick: Dricus Du Plessis by Round 2 KO (+1200 at Betway)
