Let’s look for some value with UFC 298 early betting on Saturday and see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued heading into the pay-per-view event.
UFC 298 takes place at Honda Center in Anaheim, California, and the main card is available on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99) following prelims on ESPN (8 p.m. ET) and regular ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*Odds via DraftKings and as of Monday. Bet on UFC 298 – this biggest event of early 2024 – with our DraftKings promo code.
Alexander Volkanovski (-118) vs. Ilia Topuria (-102)
There's not much "luck" involved in this one. The two best featherweights in the world have combined for 43 professional fights with just one of them going to a split decision. That was Alexander Volkanovski's win over Max Holloway – which was sandwiched between two unanimous-decision wins over the same opponent.
I suppose you could make a case that Volkanovski deserved the win in his first fight with Islam Makhachev – he didn't, but you could. Either way, it was an exceptionally close fight and impressive performance from the featherweight champ. You could also say that the market has overreacted to Volkanovski's second loss to the lightweight champion – given that he accepted the fight on two weeks' notice while drunk on a beach.
While those are semi-reasonable arguments, I don't think either has much to do with the line (and line movement) here. Ilia Topuria has been dominant, even bouncing up to lightweight when the mood strikes and looking just as strong there. He even proved his five-round mettle in his last fight, going 50-45 on two of three scorecards against the always-solid Josh Emmett.
On top of that, no fighter south of lightweight has ever won a title fight after their 35th birthday. That was last September for Volkanovski. I'm not saying he's too old, but it's definitely a concern.
All things considered, the movement toward a pick'em (after Volkanovski opened around +160) is entirely justified, and I'd even lean slightly toward Topuria.
I'll be waiting until more markets open up for this fight, as there will be better ways to play it.
Verdict: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria Fairly Valued
Anthony Hernandez (-230) vs. Roman Kopylov (+190)
Anthony Hernandez is one of the most confounding UFC fighters to bet on. Who else can get submitted by Markus Perez (2-5 UFC record) and then turn around and tap out one of the greatest pure grapplers in the UFC in Rodolfo Vieira?
My personal shorthand for situations like this is to bet on the underdog – whomever it may be – when they fight. The UFC 298 main-card opener against Roman Kopylov is no different.
Given the similarities in the career arcs of both fighters, I'm a bit surprised this line isn't tighter. Both are riding four-fight winning streaks after two early UFC losses against lower-level opposition, with seven finishes in those eight combined wins. It's somewhat of a striker-vs.-grappler matchup with Hernandez as the grappler, but both fighters have reasonably well-rounded skill sets.
This line has actually widened a bit since opening, so take your time and shop around before making the bet. Even at the current +190 line, I like the underdog, though.
Verdict: Roman Kopylov Undervalued
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-142) vs. Justin Tafa (+120)
(Editor's note: On Friday, officials announced the cancellation of Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Justin Tafa due to an injury suffered by Tafa. Junior Tafa, Justin Tafa's brother, has stepped in as a replacement to fight de Lima.)
This one isn't so much about any bad luck or controversial decisions so much as chasing the line movement.
As is typical with heavyweights, most of the fights from both of these men have ended fairly definitively. Justin Tafa does have a split-decision loss from back in 2021, but it's unlikely that's baked into the line at this point.
When markets opened up for this fight about two weeks ago, Tafa was lined anywhere between +140 and +150. Now, only Caesars and ESPN BET still have +125 available with tighter lines at the other major sportsbooks.
Rogerio de Lima is 38 and coming off a knockout loss, so all of that makes perfect sense to me. Jump on the +125 now while it's still available, and you'll likely have an option to arbitrage out later in the week if you so choose.
Verdict: Justin Tafa Undervalued
Oban Elliot (-285) vs. Val Woodburn (+235)
You gotta feel for Val Woodburn. The last time we saw the Jamacaian-born Woodburn, he closed as the heaviest underdog in recorded UFC history. That line was hard to argue, though – he was fighting on just a few days' notice, up a weight class from his natural division – and against the most hyped UFC prospect ever in Bo Nickal.
Woodburn lasted just 38 seconds against Nickal, but it's hard to draw many conclusions from that result. It's … not great that the wrestler Nickal flattened Woodburn with a punch. Still, Woodburn was giving up considerable size, and he was certainly more concerned with the threat of a takedown than Nickal's striking.
Memory of that performance seems to be included in the line for his follow-up attempt – because he shouldn't be this heavy of an underdog against Oban Elliot. Elliot is 9-2 as a pro with both losses via knockout, and one of those was at lightweight. He also earned his way into the UFC with a lackluster majority decision win on the Contender Series.
This line seems to be creeping even higher, so no need to rush – but I'll be betting on Woodburn while trying to time the peak of the market.
Verdict: Val Woodburn Undervalued
Miranda Maverick (-192) vs. Andrea Lee (+160)
I feel like I'm missing something here. Miranda Maverick is 5-3 in the UFC with finishes in three of her wins while never being stopped herself. One of those decision losses was a split, another was 29-28 against her, and the only fighter to truly make her look bad was uncrowned flyweight queen (you heard it here first) Erin Blanchfield.
Contrast that to Andrea Lee. Lee is 5-6 in the UFC octagon, but she's just 2-6 since September 2019.
Lee's probably fighting for her job here while Maverick is fighting for a spot in the rankings. On top of that, Lee is nearly a decade older, so it's unlikely she rallies in a big way against the constantly improving Maverick.
This line has already moved significantly, particularly at DraftKings where Maverick opened up about -130. There's plenty of further movement to come, though. Maverick is as high as -225 in the market as of Monday morning, and I'd be fairly shocked if she didn't close near or beyond -250.
