UFC 298 Odds: Sean Zerillo’s Betting Picks, Preview, Predictions for All 12 Fights (Saturday, February 17)

The UFC 298 odds board for Saturday's pay-per-view event features 12 fights, including an Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria main event.

Below, I've made my UFC 298 picks and have put together all 12 fight breakdowns for the event at Honda Center in Anaheim, California.

The UFC 298 preliminary card begins at 6:30 p.m. ET (3:30 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before moving to ESPN at 8 p.m. ET for additional prelims. The main card then kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV (cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights on the UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis fight card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 298 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 12 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Jumpstart your UFC 298 action tonight with our DraftKings promo code.

UFC 298 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 298 Odds

Andrea Lee vs. Miranda Maverick

Crowdsourced Projections: Miranda Maverick (63.6%)

Both flyweights are better than their recent records indicate; you can take more away from their losses to the likes of Natalia Silva, Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber – all of whom may eventually contend for a title – than you can credit in some of their wins.

While I don't project value on either side of Saturday's opener, I lean to the favorite, Miranda Maverick, as the correct side to bet on in this contest.

Maverick is eight years younger than Lee in a smaller division where fractional differences in speed and athleticism can prove crucial. When there is at least an eight-year age gap between MMA combatants, the younger fighter has won 68.5% of the time at average odds of -123 (55.3% implied) – more than 13% above expectation.

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Lee owns a four-inch reach advantage, but Maverick has the better striking stats at a distance, out-landing opponents by a margin of 1.7 strikes per minute, compared to 1.1 for Lee. Maverick spends a higher percentage of her fights grappling (54% vs. 38% for Lee) – averaging nearly two additional takedown attempts per round (3.6 vs. 1.7). She also has a better top game than Lee to consolidate position.

The striking exchanges should be competitive – if not slightly favor Lee – but I expect Maverick to prove the superior offensive grappler and to pull away from Lee with control time and ground strikes, so long as she commits to her wrestling.

I projected Maverick as a -175 favorite (63.6% implied), and I expect the fight to reach a decision 74% of the time. As a result, I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or the total in this matchup. The closest thing I can find to a value bet is Lee by decision (projected +243, listed +245).

If her moneyline doesn't drop into that -175 range pre-fight, I'd rather wait to find a better live price on Maverick, who should have a cardio advantage in the third round of this matchup.

Bets

• Miranda Maverick Live after Round 1

Oban Elliott vs. Val Woodburn

Crowdsourced Projections: Oban Elliott (72.1%)

After a brutal knockout loss in his UFC debut – on short notice as a +1300 underdog against rising middleweight prospect Bo Nickal – Val Woodburn will move down to welterweight to face "The Welsh Gangster" Oban Elliott.

Woodburn is the shorter fighter but owns a two-inch reach advantage in this matchup. He carries a ton of power – previously competing 35 pounds heavier as a light heavyweight – and is both the stronger and more physical fighter, while Elliott is the more technical martial artist.

Elliott has all of the grappling upside in this fight, but I worry that he doesn't have the physical tools – namely strength – to keep Woodburn flat on the mat early, and I am concerned about his striking defense in a potential brawl.

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Despite poor striking defense, Elliott is generally able to navigate through damage. Even if he eats big shots from Woodburn early and falls behind in the fight, I could see him rallying back to secure a win.

However, I'd rather not lay juice on Elliott pre-fight, when Woodburn is at his freshest and most dangerous. Elliott is worth a live entry if the price moves in after Round 1.

Ultimately, I project slight value on two betting angles pre-fight: to reach a decision (projected +145, listed +175) and for Elliott to win a decision (projected +208, listed +250). I'll take a small stab at the latter and wait to add more live on his moneyline.

Bets

• Oban Elliott wins by Decision (+250, 0.2u) at FanDuel
• Oban Elliott Live after Round 1

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Josh Quinlan vs. Danny Barlow

Crowdsourced Projections: Danny Barlow (68.2%) 

Josh Quinlan's entrance to the UFC was suspect. His Contender Series win was overturned to a no-contest after popping for a banned substance, and his UFC debut against Jason Witt was pushed back only a week after testing positive again.

Quinlan didn't look as explosive in his first-career loss against Trey Waters, but in the post-USADA era of the UFC, perhaps "Bushido" – who hasn't fought since April 2023 – has a renewed physique and will return to his early-career form on Saturday.

Either way, Quinlan is at a severe reach disadvantage against Danny "Lefthand2god" Barlow – a southpaw with a seven-inch edge at distance and a Gamertag nickname.

Of the two prospects, Barlow's game is much more aesthetically intriguing. While a bit awkward, his striking is very technical, using feints and angles, while Quinlan is very hittable on the center line (50% striking defense).

However, Quinlan has all of the grappling upside here at plus money – and, while we haven't seen Barlow much on his back, there is a chance the favorite is as bad of a a grappler as he is good at striking.

As a result, I'm not inclined to bet too heavily on Barlow – who could get exposed by Quinlan, a black belt, with one takedown – until we have more information on his takedown defense or bottom game.

However, I prefer Barlow's gas tank in a longer fight, and I think he's potentially a sharp live bet if Quinlan does have early grappling success without finishing.

I also like Barlow to finish the fight in the second or third round; I show value on Barlow's knockout prop (projected +130, listed +160), but I think the odds on his Round 2 (+550) and Round 3 (+850) props are a bit short; I'd want something closer to +650 and +1200, respectively.

I also show slight value on Barlow's moneyline up to -200 (projected -214). I may wait to see where the line moves overnight on Friday before adding a wager.

Take Barlow's violence prop pre-fight and hunt for a live entry after the opening frame.

Bets

• Parlay (+116, 0.25u) at FanDuel: Danny Barlow (-210) & Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-215)
• Danny Barlow wins by KO/TKO (+160, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Danny Barlow Live after Round 1

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Zhang Mingyang vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Crowdsourced Projections: Zhang Mingyang (54.2%) 

This light heavyweight bout between a pair of debutants, who earned contracts on Road to the UFC and Contender Series at long odds of +450 (Zhang) and +380 (Ribeiro), should be a war for as long as it lasts. It's the most heavily favored bout to end inside the distance on Saturday – as high as -1100, or 91.7% implied.

They are a pair of glass cannons: These fighters have seen 35 of their 43 professional bouts (81.3%) end in the first round, including 13 straight for Zhang and five consecutive for Ribeiro.

Unfortunately, the under is not playable at current pricing. Even though I expect the fight to end inside the distance 85% of the distance (+567 implied odds), I'm still below market. The fight to end in Round 1 is seemingly playable at -200 (66.7% implied), compared to the career average for both fighters (implied odds of -435) – but that is also an uncomfortable price.

Still, I'd prefer to pick a side to win in that opening frame and would instead take Zhang (+185) or Ribeiro (+275) to win in Round 1 instead of laying -200 for either one to fall.

Despite a six-inch reach discrepancy, Zhang is the more educated striker while Ribeiro has more grappling upside. Zhang is more reliable in coming out on top of what odds indicate will be a quick brawl.

I took Zhang by KO/TKO (projected +146, listed +175 at WynnBet), where the price difference between that prop and his Round 1 prop was only 10 cents. Those KO odds should be closer to even money, but I'd hunt for something in that neighborhood if you're betting only on Round 1.

Bets

• Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO (+175, 0.25u) at WynnBet

Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera

Crowdsourced Projections: Rinya Nakamura (91.3%)

Rinya Nakamura is the heaviest favorite on Saturday's card, reaching banana-peel pricing against short-notice debutant Carlos Vera, who is old (36) for the bantamweight division.

Both fighters prefer to grapple, but Nakamura is a far superior athlete, a decorated freestyle wrestler, and a fascinating prospect in the bantamweight division after transitioning from wrestling to MMA in 2020.

Vera is comfortable on his back, where I expect him to be for most of the fight, but Nakamura is a bit unorthodox with his control. He prefers north-south or side control against opponents rather than going for half-guard or mount more consistently.

To be blunt, I don't think that Vera is UFC-caliber. Brad Katona dominated him on The Ultimate Fighter, and Vera was previously signed by the UFC – and cut – as a short-notice replacement for a card last year. The promotion doesn't view him as anything other than a warm body.

Nakamura should run through this type of opponent on the ground if he is a serious prospect. Take a shot on Nakamura by submission (projected +265, listed +275), inside the distance (projected -177, listed -175), or pass on this fight.

Bets

• Rinya Nakamura wins by Submission (+275, 0.2u) at FanDuel

Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Junior Tafa

Crowdsourced Projections: Marcos Rogerio de Lima (72.2%)

Junior Tafa has replaced his brother, Justin Tafa, on one day's notice in a heavyweight bout with Marcos Rogerio de Lima.

I had a moneyline wager on de Lima at -130 against Justin, the shorter but stockier brother who has faced only two takedown attempts through eight UFC bouts. I had assumed a significant grappling advantage for the Brazilian.

I'm even more certain about de Lima's ability to out-grapple Junior, who spent 80% (12 of 15 minutes) of his UFC debut getting controlled by Mohammad Usman.

Junior is more aggressive than Justin, and given the extremely short-notice nature of the fight, he'd be wise to try to swarm de Lima and force a quick finish.

Still, I'd expect the 18-fight UFC octagon veteran to maintain his typically tight high guard as Tafa pressures, and I'd hope that he'll look to wrestle as quickly as possible; if the fight does hit the mat, de Lima should look like a significant favorite, and he may need only one takedown to finish the bout.

Given the extremely short-notice nature of this booking, the prop market is just beginning to take shop on Friday evening. We'll wait until Saturday to see if anything worth playing pops.

For now, I projected de Lima closer to a -260 favorite and would play his moneyline straight (to -235) and use it as a parlay piece.

Bets

• Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-210, 0.25u) at FanDuel

Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern

Crowdsourced Projections: Amanda Lemos (52.3%)

I have typically bet against both of these strawweights during their UFC tenures, and I was initially inclined to pass on betting on this fight.

However, I project slight value on the underdog, Mackenzie Dern, with the grappling upside and higher decision equity in a binary fight.

Dern struggled as a -205 favorite and sustained her first career finish loss in her last fight against Jessica Andrade, somewhat stylistically similar to Amanda Lemos. However, Andrade has superior first-layer takedown defense and much better cardio than Lemos.

Like Andrade, Lemos is a much more technical and potent striker than Dern. However, Lemos rarely separates from her opponents on volume and tends to wilt in the third round; Dern should be the more enthusiastic and proactive fighter down the stretch of this contest.

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Dern also has much potential to win a 10-8 round via dominance in the grappling exchanges; Lemos has some slick chokes in her arsenal but has shown subpar takedown defense (55%) and an unwillingness to fight off of her back as she tires (spent 16:07, or 64% of her title fight vs. Weili Zhang getting controlled).

While Dern is an inefficient offensive wrestler (14% career takedown accuracy), she averages three attempts per round and can backpack opponents and hold a body triangle for long stretches. I trust the grappler to play to her strengths. Dern has reunited with her old striking coach but also made clear her intentions to pressure-grapple Lemos – "like Khabib" – from the outset.

Lemos will land the more brutal strikes, but Dern's grappling efforts should set a pace that Lemos will struggle to maintain; if Lemos doesn't secure a finish, the margins for her winning a decision are narrow.

Dern should be much more comfortable on the feet against a slower, flat-footed power striker like Lemos than she was against the more evasive, quicker and aggressive Andrade.

And Dern should be able to poke holes in Lemos' defensive grappling and weaponize her gas tank against a 36-year-old strawweight (average division age: 31).

Take Dern to +110 pre-fight, and look to add more live after Round 1.

Bets

• Mackenzie Dern (+116, 0.5u) at FanDuel
• Mackenzie Dern Live after Round 1

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Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov

Crowdsourced Projections: Anthony Hernandez (73.4%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's main-card opener, check out the full Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Billy and I disagree on the pre-fight value side, but we agree on one key point: Bet Anthony Hernandez live after Round 1.

Kopylov has undoubtedly improved his takedown defense on his recent run (four consecutive knockout wins). Still, he hasn't faced a fighter who will wrestle him with nearly the same tenacity or consistency as "Fluffy" Hernandez. While Kopylov is the much more technical striker in this matchup, Hernandez won't give him much space or time to fight at range.

Hernandez spends just 28% of his time at striking distance compared to 85% for Kopylov. He wrestles at a pace matched only by the next fighter on this card – Merab Dvalishvili – averaging 14.2 takedown attempts per five minutes. Hernandez is a chain-wrestling machine, sticking to opponents and wearing on them with pace and pressure until they wilt.

Kopylov could have chances to hurt Hernandez earl. He throws to the body more frequently than other fighters, and Hernandez appears weaker to the body than he does to head strikes.

Still, if Kopylov doesn't land an early blow, Hernandez will drown him with pace. And based on the process I use to project these fights, Kopylov is too public of an underdog in this matchup.

While Kopylov's first-layer takedown defense is solid (92% career), he's not nearly as adept at scrambling back to his feet – or preventing opponents from advancing – once they get him down. Additionally, Kopylov tends to gas out much more quickly from grappling as opposed to striking, and if Hernandez has early success, he should be able to sap Kopylov's energy and power.

I projected Hernandez as a -276 favorite (73.4% implied) and would parlay his prefight moneyline up to that number or lay the juice up to -250.

Additionally, consider betting Hernandez to win in Round 2 (+400) or Round 3 (+750) after dragging Kopylov through deep water.

Bets

• Parlay (+109, 0.5u) at FanDuel: Anthony Hernandez (-245) & Merab Dvalishvili (-205)
• Anthony Hernandez (-240, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Anthony Hernandez wins in Round 2 (+400, 0.15u) at Caesars
• Anthony Hernandez wins in Round 3 (+750, 0.1u) at WynnBet
• Anthony Hernandez Live after Round 1

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo

Crowdsourced Projections: Merab Dvalishvili (70.5%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's bantamweight title eliminator, check out the full Merab Dvalishivili vs. Henry Cejudo preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Billy and I reached the same conclusion on this fight: Dvalishivili's pace and pressure will prove too much for Cejudo, a 37-year-old in a division where the average age is 31.

He seems incredibly difficult to finish – rallying from the dead against Marlon Moraes – and put forth the most impressive five-round effort I've seen last March over Petr Yan.

Dvalishivili's pace in that Yan fight was video-game-esque; he shot 49 takedowns and attempted 401 total strikes across 25 minutes. Amazingly, that takedown rate (9.8 per five minutes) is below his career average (11.2 per five minutes).

Dvalishivili doesn't give opponents any space to operate. He chain wrestles until he gets them down – and continues to look for mat returns – or presses them up against the fence for long stretches and stalls the fight in his favor. His striking has improved drastically, too, and the way he blends his boxing and takedown attempts looks overwhelming to try to defend.

While I have the utmost respect for Cejudo, one of the greatest combat sports athletes of all time, he needs to hurt Dvalishivili on the feet or land offensive takedowns in multiple rounds – while controlling position – to win this fight. Otherwise, he'll eventually wilt under Dvalishivili's pressure.

Cejudo's takedown defense isn't nearly as effective as his offensive wrestling; he's comfortable looking for sweeps after getting put on his back or escaping from positions against the fence, so he doesn't work as hard to deny initial entries. Still, you can't just defend takedowns for 15 minutes. To avoid crumbling under Dvalishivili's work rate, Cejudo must find a way to get on top and keep the Georgian chest to chest.

The margins for Dvalishivili are certainly more narrow in a three-round fight than a five-round fight; he looks unbeatable across 25 minutes unless you can finish him. Still, I think his boxing is highly underrated and that he'll inevitably fight for and hold bantamweight gold.

I projected Dvalishivili closer to -250 in this matchup (71.5% implied) and would lay the juice up to that number or use him as a parlay piece. 

Additionally, I'll consider playing Dvalishivili via KO/TKO (projected +599, listed +650) or inside the distance (projected +366, listed +450) either straight or on round-robin tickets.

Lastly, Dvalishivili is always worth a live bet if his odds move in.

Bets

• Merab Dvalishvili (-245, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Merab Dvalishvili Live after Round 1

Geoff Neal vs. Ian Machado Garry

Crowdsourced Projections: Ian Garry (69.6%)

Geoff Neal is a popular underdog selection this week for two reasons: He carries knockout power against a potentially chinny opponent, and a large percentage of the fanbase wants to see Ian Machado Garry get chinned.

Although Neal has a one-inch reach advantage, a distance kickboxing match should favor Garry, who has longer legs and is the superior kicker.

Neal needs to track down Garry, who has excellent footwork and elusive moments, crash the pocket, and force boxing exchanges, where he can hope to wobble Garry and change the outlook of the fight.

Although Garry is undefeated (13-0), he's been poorly wobbled in the UFC multiple times – most famously by Song Kenan – and though he is a very technical offensive striker, his height leaves him open defensively (53% striking defense), creating opportunities for Neal – and future opponents – to land a crushing blow.

Neal tends to struggle with more mobile strikers – like Stephen Thompson – and he has success when opponents stand in front of him (his last two wins over Vicente Luque and Santiago Ponzinibbio).

While Garry is generally on his bike, he has lapses in fights when he bites down on the mouthpiece and exchanges; doing so with Neal could cost him dearly.

I expect the fight to reach a decision 55% of the time (-121 implied) more often than the odds suggest; bet that prop to -110. I give Neal substantially higher finishing equity, but I expect Garry to generally control their fight's range and pace and keep Neal chasing him around the octagon for the majority of three rounds. He is also likelier than Neal to land offensive takedowns and control position on the mat.

I expect Garry to win a decision more often than the odds suggest (projected +105, listed +150). If you're betting on the Neal side, target his knockout prop (projected +406, listed +350) or wait for a moneyline price closer to +225.

Bets

• Geoff Neal (+230, 0.2u) at Caesars
• Fight Goes to Decision (+100, 0.5u) at WynnBet

Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa

Crowdsourced Projections: Robert Whittaker (65.1%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's co-main event, check out the full Paulo Costa vs. Robert Whittaker preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

At a price north of +200, I view Costa as the value side of the equation as the larger, stronger and more durable athlete facing a potentially regressing Whittaker, who looked flat in his loss last July to Dricus Du Plessis.

You can excuse Costa's poor cardio in his last outing against Luke Rockhold. Fighters have consistently struggled to cope with the thin air in Salt Lake City. Still, Costa was in bad spots against a retiring Rockhold on the feet and the mat in that fight, and the quality of his UFC performances – aside from his win over a 42-year-old Yoel Romero – hasn't aged well in hindsight. Rockhold (August 2022) is Costa's only win since the Romero fight (August 2019), and he hasn't been active.

Whittaker is undoubtedly the more technical and well-rounded fighter of the pair. He's been the much more efficient striker throughout their UFC careers, out-landing opponents at distance by 1.2 strikes per minute, compared to a negative differential for Costa (-0.2). And while Costa has shown strong first-layer takedown defense (79%), he's not nearly as adept at maintaining guard or returning to his feet. Whittaker has all of the offensive grappling upside and is better at mixing his striking and grappling.

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Still, because of the differential in power and durability, it may be difficult for Whittaker to cover a hefty price tag in a pure kickboxing match. He likely needs to land takedowns and consolidate position to pull away on the scorecards in a three-round fight and the price here is more befitting of their true odds in a five-round contest.

Ultimately, I'm having difficulty getting a read on Costa's current level. He's potentially several years removed from his prime – and perhaps was nothing more than a hype job in a lousy division – but Costa may reemerge from his layoff in career-best shape in the post-USADA era of UFC. Keep a close eye on the weigh-ins on Friday.

If Costa makes weight without issue, I would consider backing the underdog at +200 or better or bet him to win by knockout or KO/TKO (projected +340, listed +400).

However, I could make an equivalent argument to back Whittaker by decision (projected +105, listed +120); he has significantly higher decision equity if he can avoid getting finished.

Bets

• Paulo Costa wins by KO/TKO (+400, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria

Crowdsourced Projections: Ilia Topuria (50.1%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's main event and featherweight title bout, check out my Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria preview.

In short, I would bet Topuria's moneyline at any plus-money price prefight.

Topuria has more finishing and offensive grappling upside than Volkanovski, whose primary win condition is likely a highly competitive decision.

I expect this fight to reach a decision 45% of the time (+123 implied odds) – about as often as the odds suggest.

However, I expect Volkanovski to win a decision more frequently (projected +208, listed +250) than the betting market, and I see Topuria finishing with more frequency (projected +342 by KO/TKO, listed +350; projected +165 to win inside the distance, listed +200) compared to listed odds.

As a result, consider adding Topuria's violence props, including his odds to win in Round 1 (+650 at DraftKings), either as straight bets or on round-robin tickets.

Bets

• Ilia Topuria (+110, 0.5u) at Caesars
• Ilia Topuria (+127, 0.25u) at WynnBet
• Ilia Topuria wins Inside the Distance (+200, 0.25u) at BetMGM

UFC 298 Bets

Moneyline Bets

• Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-210, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Mackenzie Dern (+116, 0.5u) at FanDuel
• Anthony Hernandez (-240, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Merab Dvalishvili (-245, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Geoff Neal (+230, 0.2u) at Caesars
• Ilia Topuria (+110, 0.5u) at Caesars
• Ilia Topuria (+127, 0.25u) at WynnBet

Prop Bets and Totals

• Oban Elliott wins by Decision (+250, 0.2u) at FanDuel
• Danny Barlow wins by KO/TKO (+160, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO (+175, 0.25u) at WynnBet
• Rinya Nakamura wins by Submission (+275, 0.2u) at FanDuel
• Anthony Hernandez wins in Round 2 (+400, 0.15u) at Caesars
• Anthony Hernandez wins in Round 3 (+750, 0.1u) at WynnBet
• Paulo Costa wins by KO/TKO (+400, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Garry/Neal, Fight Goes to Decision (+100, 0.5u) at WynnBet
• Ilia Topuria wins Inside the Distance (+200, 0.25u) at BetMGM

Parlays

• Parlay (+116, 0.25u) at FanDuel: Danny Barlow (-210) & Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-215)
• Parlay (+109, 0.5u) at FanDuel: Anthony Hernandez (-245) & Merab Dvalishvili (-205)

Live Bets

• Miranda Maverick Live after Round 1
• Oban Elliott Live after Round 1
• Danny Barlow Live after Round 1
• Mackenzie Dern Live after Round 1
• Anthony Hernandez Live after Round 1
• Merab Dvalishvili Live after Round 1