Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria at UFC 298 on Saturday, Feb. 16 – our expert MMA prediction and pick.
The UFC returns to Honda Center in Anaheim, California, on Saturday for a 12-fight card headlined by a featherweight title matchup with No. 3-ranked UFC contender Topuria and current champion Volkanovski.
Australia's Volkanovski, the UFC's No. 3 ranked male pound-for-pound fighter, will look to solidify his resume as the best 145-pounder in UFC history in pursuit of his sixth title defense. However, he is in the rare position of defending a belt while bouncing back from a knockout loss in his last fight after faltering against Islam Makhachev – in a rematch for UFC lightweight gold – in October.
Topuria is 6-0 in the UFC, including a dominant main-event win over Josh Emmett this past June. A title win for "El Matador" could ignite the MMA fanbase in Spain. And with Benoit Saint Denis rising in the UFC lightweight rankings – and multiple Englishmen holding UFC gold – a win for Topuria may force the UFC to hold a big card in Eastern Europe.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 298 main event of Topuria vs. Volkanovski and utilize those factors to bet on these featherweights, who should make their cage walks at approximately 11:55 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV (cost: $79.99).
Tale of the Tape
| Volkanovski | Topuria | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 26-3 | 14-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:18 | 10:17 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/29/1988 | 1/21/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.2 | 4.4 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.42 | 3.05 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 67% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.84 | 2.19 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 56% |
| TD Def | 70% | 92% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 1.5 |
Since his knockout loss to Makhachev at UFC 294, Volkanovski has moved from roughly a -180 to -190 favorite at open against Topuria (roughly 65% implied) to as low as -105 (51.2% implied) before recently bouncing back closer to -130 (56.5% implied) as of writing.
While Volkanovski has proven himself to be one of the best and most well-rounded fighters on the planet, Topuria presents a different matchup than the other opponents he has recently faced.
Topuria is 27 – eight years younger than Volkanovski in a division where the average age is 31 – and older fighters tend to fall off more quickly at lighter classes than in heavier divisions, where speed is less crucial.
When at least an eight-year age gap between MMA combatants, the younger fighter has won 68.5% of the time at average odds of -123 (55.3% implied) – more than 13% above expectation.
Topuria has the quicker and more powerful hands in the pocket – but he is also more durable. Aside from that loss to Makhachev, Volkanovski has wobbled in several bouts throughout his title run, including moments against Chad Mendes and Max Holloway. Durability has always been the one flaw in his game.
Topuria is the hardest puncher Volkanovski has faced since Mendes but is likely the most well-rounded challenger he has seen at 145 pounds too. Max Holloway tried to outpace Volkanovski on the feet three times, and Brian Ortega tried to choke him out.
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However, none of Volk's opponents – aside from Makhachev and, to a degree, Mendes – has been able to threaten one-punch power on the feet while mixing in offensive wrestling.
Topuria is the bigger, stronger, faster and younger athlete. He's also the superior boxer and better offensive grappler. He pressures opponents well, cuts off the cage, moves his head, and regularly pivots his feet to keep opponents on the back foot. He won't allow Volkanovski to take the center of the cage and control range.
Volkanovski is the superior kicker and has much more experience, especially in five-round fights, alongside his world-class tendency to make the proper in-fight adjustments.
Some have questioned Topuria's gas tank after a lackluster effort (on short notice) in his UFC debut against Youssef Zalal. However, with nearly three years of additional training – and on a whole camp – he maintained his tenacity for 25 minutes against Emmett.
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Along with Merab Dvalishvili's win over Petr Yan, Topuria's dismantling of Emmett was the most impressive 25-minute display of 2023.
I expect Topuria to lead the way in the first round – to pressure Volkanovski, stay inside of kicking range, and force pocket-boxing exchanges, where he has superior hardware in a brawl. Volkanovski likely needs to clinch, hold Topuria against the fence, or stay on his bike on the outside of the cage to break the pressure.
If Volkanovski can survive the early onslaught from the challenger, he can work his way back into the fight by controlling range and winning the kickboxing exchanges from a distance; the champ should make the most of his two-inch reach advantage with straight punches and low kicks when Topuria gives him space.
I'd expect Topuria to apply maximum pressure from the opening bell and look to close the show quickly. As a result, Volkanovski makes for a better live bet after Rounds 1 and 2; his ability to make the proper adjustments should allow him to close the gap in athleticism, mainly as this fight wears on.
From a pre-fight perspective, I'd want to back Topuria – either on the moneyline or in the prop market – with the potential to hedge live on Volankovski.
Volkanovski vs. Topuria Pick
I projected Ilia Topuria as a slight favorite (projected 50.1% or -100 implied) in this matchup; I would bet Topuria's moneyline at any plus-money price prefight.
Topuria has more finishing and offensive grappling upside than Volkanovski, whose primary win condition is likely a highly competitive decision.
I expect this fight to reach a decision 45% of the time (+123 implied odds) – about as often as the odds suggest.
However, I expect Volkanovski to win a decision more frequently (projected +208, listed +250) than the betting market, and I see Topuria finishing with more frequency (projected +342 by KO/TKO, listed +350; projected +165 to win inside the distance, listed +200) compared to listed odds.
As a result, consider adding Topuria's violence props, including his odds to win in Round 1 (+650 at DraftKings), either as straight bets or on round-robin tickets.
The Picks: Ilia Topuria (+110 at Caesars) | Topuria Wins Inside the Distance (+200 at BetMGM)
