UFC 298 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern: Expect Grappler to Poke Holes (Saturday, February 17)

UFC 298 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern: Expect Grappler to Poke Holes (Saturday, February 17) article feature image
Credit:

Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC women’s strawweight Mackenzie Dern

Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern Odds

Lemos Odds
-138
Dern Odds
+118
Over/Under
2.5 (+116 / -148)
Location
Honda Center – Anaheim, California
Time
9:30 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC 298 with our FanDuel promo code.

Here's everything you need to know about Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern at UFC 298 on Saturday, Feb. 17 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.

The UFC 298 preliminary card concludes with a featured ESPN featured attraction between strawweight contenders Lemos and Dern.

This bout could be one of the night's more technical showcases, but Lemos is the clearly favored fighter at sportsbooks.

Here's my Lemos vs. Dern pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

LemosDern
Record13-3-113-4
Avg. Fight Time9:1113:04
Height5'4"5'4"
Weight (pounds)115.5 lbs.116 lbs.
Reach (inches)65"63"
StanceSouthpawOrthodox
Date of birth5/22/19873/24/1993
Sig Strikes Per Min3.53.5
SS Accuracy55%40%
SS Absorbed Per Min4.664.21
SS Defense42%51%
Take Down Avg0.820.77
TD Acc55%14%
TD Def55%40%
Submission Avg0.81.4

I have typically bet against both of these strawweights during their UFC tenures, and I was initially inclined to pass on betting on this fight.

However, I project slight value on the underdog, Dern, with the grappling upside and higher decision equity in a binary fight.

Dern struggled as a -205 favorite and sustained her first career finish loss in her last fight against Jessica Andrade, somewhat stylistically similar to Amanda Lemos. However, Andrade has superior first-layer takedown defense and much better cardio than Lemos.

UFC 298 Odds: Sean Zerillo's Betting Picks, Preview, Predictions for All 12 Fights Image

Like Andrade, Lemos is a much more technical and potent striker than Dern.

However, Lemos rarely separates from her opponents on volume and tends to wilt in the third round; Dern should be the more enthusiastic and proactive fighter down the stretch of this contest.

Dern also has much potential to win a 10-8 round via dominance in the grappling exchanges; Lemos has some slick chokes in her arsenal but has shown subpar takedown defense (55%) and an unwillingness to fight off of her back as she tires (spent 16:07, or 64% of her title fight vs. Weili Zhang getting controlled).

While Dern is an inefficient offensive wrestler (14% career takedown accuracy), she averages three attempts per round and can backpack opponents and hold a body triangle for long stretches. I trust the grappler to play to her strengths. Dern has reunited with her old striking coach but also made clear her intentions to pressure-grapple Lemos – "like Khabib" – from the outset.

Lemos will land the more brutal strikes, but Dern's grappling efforts should set a pace that Lemos will struggle to maintain; if Lemos doesn't secure a finish, the margins for her winning a decision are narrow.

Lemos vs. Dern Pick

Dern should be much more comfortable on the feet against a slower, flat-footed power striker like Lemos than she was against the more evasive, quicker and aggressive Andrade.

And Dern should be able to poke holes in Lemos' defensive grappling and weaponize her gas tank against a 36-year-old strawweight (average division age: 31).

Take Dern to +110 prefight, and look to add more live after Round 1.

The Picks: Mackenzie Dern (+116, 0.5u) at FanDuel | Dern Live after Round 1

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About the Author
Sean is a Senior Writer at The Action Network and a lawyer in the state of New York. He primarily covers baseball, synthesizing advanced metrics with traditional scouting techniques, and believes that Bartolo Colón's home run was the single greatest athletic achievement of our time.

Follow Sean Zerillo @SeanZerillo on Twitter/X.

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