Andrea Lee vs. Miranda Maverick Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Andrea Lee vs. Miranda Maverick at UFC 298 on Saturday, Feb. 17 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
UFC 298 kicks off with women's flyweights Lee and Maverick headed in different directions. Lee looks to snap a three-fight skid while Maverick looks to continue her rise up the ranks – this time as a betting favorite against a known commodity.
Here's my Lee vs. Maverick pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Lee | Maverick | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-8 | 14-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:05 | 12:26 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125.5 lbs. | 126 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 2/11/1989 | 7/1/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.9 | 3.7 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.69 | 2.62 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.84 | 2.41 |
| TD Acc | 57% | 48% |
| TD Def | 54% | 42% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.5 |
Both flyweights are better than their recent records indicate; you can take more away from their losses to the likes of Natalia Silva, Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber – all of whom may eventually contend for a title – than you can credit in some of their wins.
While I don't project value on either side of Saturday's opener, I lean to the favorite, Maverick, as the correct side to bet on in this contest.
Maverick is eight years younger than Lee in a smaller division where fractional differences in speed and athleticism can prove crucial. When there is at least an eight-year age gap between MMA combatants, the younger fighter has won 68.5% of the time at average odds of -123 (55.3% implied) – more than 13% above expectation.
Lee owns a four-inch reach advantage, but Maverick has the better striking stats at a distance, out-landing opponents by a margin of 1.7 strikes per minute, compared to 1.1 for Lee.
Maverick spends a higher percentage of her fights grappling (54% vs. 38% for Lee) – averaging nearly two additional takedown attempts per round (3.6 vs. 1.7). She also has a better top game than Lee to consolidate position.
The striking exchanges should be competitive – if not slightly favor Lee – but I expect Maverick to prove the superior offensive grappler and to pull away from Lee with control time and ground strikes, so long as she commits to her wrestling.
Lee vs. Maverick Pick
I projected Maverick as a -175 favorite (63.6% implied), and I expect the fight to reach a decision 74% of the time. As a result, I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or the total in this matchup. The closest thing I can find to a value bet is Lee by decision (projected +243, listed +245).
If her moneyline doesn't drop into that -175 range pre-fight, I'd rather wait to find a better live price on Maverick, who should have a cardio advantage in the third round of this matchup.
The Pick: Miranda Maverick Live after Round 1
