Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov at UFC 298 on Saturday, Feb. 17 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Neither fighter is a household name, but we have an important middleweight matchup between a pair of surging contenders.
Both Anthony Hernandez and Roman Kopylov are winners of four straight fights, with seven of those eight finishes coming inside the distance.
Hernandez currently sits 15h in the official UFC 185-pound contender rankings with Kopylov unranked, but the winner of this one should see his stock rise beyond that. After suffering some setbacks at the start of their careers, they're both rounding into their prime with aspirations for a title run.
Hernandez has largely seen his ascent thanks to his impressive grappling whereas Kopylov has made his mark on the feet. However, both are dangerous in all facets of the game, making this UFC 298 pay-per-view opener a fun stylistic matchup.
Here's my Hernandez vs. Kopylov prediction and pick for UFC 298.
Tale of the Tape
| Hernandez | Kopylov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-2 | 12-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:44 | 10:38 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185.5 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 10/18/1993 | 5/4/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.36 | 4.11 |
| SS Defense | 46% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 6.79 | 0.47 |
| TD Acc | 57% | 50% |
| TD Def | 63% | 92% |
| Submission Avg | 2.9 | 0.0 |
We'll start with the favored Hernandez. After dropping two of his first three UFC contests, he was booked in what looked to be a horrible matchup against former ADCC champion Rodolfo Vieira. Hernandez had recently been submitted by Markus Perez, so a date with "The Black Belt Hunter" appeared to be a death sentence.
That's when the world learned that "Fluffy" could grapple too. After picking apart Viera on the feet, he countered a bad shot from the Brazilian with a guillotine from side guard. That was the first of four dominant grappling performances, with one other submission, a ground-and-pound finish, and eight takedowns during a decision win over Josh Fremd.
Hernandez is adequate a striker with solid power in his hands and feet. He likes to launch single attacks from long range or work from the clinch, avoiding "the pocket," where his opponent can trade shops.
His defense isn't great, but by staying at range, he avoids much of the damage when being hit. Still, 46% striking defense certainly isn't ideal.
The downside to that style is when he's forced into bad takedown attempts, desperately lunging from range rather than smoothly transitioning from strikes to grappling. That was evident early against Edmen Shahbazyan as Hernandez went just 2-for-4 on takedowns in the first frame.
His well-above-average pace and cardio were also on display against Shahbazyan when Hernandez took over in the second and third rounds. That's a frequent theme with his finishes; his relentless takedown attempts eventually break through.
Which will make for a fun dynamic against Kopylov. The five-time Russian national champion in combat sambo has near-perfect striking technique. He doesn't waste energy at range, scoring points with a sharp jab from southpaw while chopping his opponent's lead leg. Only when countering does he really sit down on his shots – an excellent method to preserve stamina.
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My favorite part about the Russian's game is his variety of attacks. He uses low leg kicks to control the lead foot battle against righties while firing rear kicks to his opponents' body and head. He melted Josh Fremd with a punch to the body in his last fight – finishing a man who went the distance against Hernandez.
We don't get much offensive grappling from Kopylov. He's 2-for-4 on takedown attempts in six UFC fights. However, he has excellent takedown defense at 92%, largely a function of his ability to control the distance and angle away from his opponents. He's on the smaller side for the division, though, and he could struggle up against the fence with the larger Hernandez.
The other issue for Kopylov is what happens if he is taken down, which happened just twice in the UFC octagon. Once he was controlled for over four minutes of a round while the other he was submitted.
Of course, we should assume some improvements to his bottom game over the last few years, especially with part of his training camp spent in Dagestan.
Hernandez vs. Kopylov Pick
This fight likely comes down to whether or not Hernandez is able to bring it to the mat. Improvements or not, I still give the American a massive edge in pure grappling, particularly if he's working from top position.
With that said, there are some factors working against him here. Kopylov's excellent footwork and distance control make setting up shots – already not a strength of Hernandez – an even tougher task. Kopylov is also the first UFC southpaw Hernandez will fight. That's a clear edge for Kopylov, who obviously has plenty of experience against orthodox fighters.
Finally, the larger UFC PPV cage makes it far more difficult to corner Kopylov and drag him to the canvas.
I'm honestly a bit surprised at the roughly 2-to-1 odds on Kopylov, given the similarities in both fighter's resumes. I like his moneyline at +210 on DraftKings, as of this writing, as well as his finish prop at +330.
However, I'll be looking to hedge with a live bet on Hernandez if this line flips following the first round or two, so don't go too hard on the prefight bets.
The Picks: Kopylov ML +210 (DraftKings, 0.5u) | Kopylov inside the distance +330 (DraftKings, 0.25u) | Hernandez live
