Josh Quinlan vs. Danny Barlow Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Josh Quinlan vs. Danny Barlow at UFC 298 on Saturday, Feb. 17 our expert UFC prediction and pick.
UFC newcomer Barlow is a substantial betting favorite as he meets fellow Contender Series vet Quinlan in this welterweight fight.
Here's my Quinlan vs. Barlow pick and prediction for the UFC 298 prelims.
Tale of the Tape
| Quinlan | Barlow | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-1 | 7-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:59 | 1:19 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 169 lbs. | 171 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 2/6/1993 | 8/2/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.7 | 12.2 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 57% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.0 | 5.3 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.84 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 12% | 0% |
| TD Def | 60% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Quinlan's entrance to the UFC was suspect. His Contender Series win was overturned to a no-contest after popping for a banned substance, and his UFC debut against Jason Witt was pushed back only a week after testing positive again.
Quinlan didn't look as explosive in his first-career loss against Trey Waters, but in the post-USADA era of the UFC, perhaps "Bushido" – who hasn't fought since April 2023 – has a renewed physique and will return to his early-career form on Saturday.
Either way, Quinlan is at a severe reach disadvantage against "Lefthand2god" Barlow – a southpaw with a seven-inch edge at distance and a Gamertag nickname.
Of the two prospects, Barlow's game is much more aesthetically intriguing. While a bit awkward, his striking is very technical, using feints and angles, while Quinlan is very hittable on the center line (50% striking defense).
However, Quinlan has all of the grappling upside here at plus money – and, while we haven't seen Barlow much on his back, there is a chance the favorite is as bad of a a grappler as he is good at striking.
Quinlan vs. Barlow Pick
I also like Barlow to finish the fight in the second or third round; I show value on Barlow's knockout prop (projected +130, listed +160), but I think the odds on his Round 2 (+550) and Round 3 (+850) props are a bit short; I'd want something closer to +650 and +1200, respectively.
I also show slight value on Barlow's moneyline up to -200 (projected -214).
Take Barlow's violence prop pre-fight and hunt for a live entry after the opening frame.
The Picks: Danny Barlow wins by KO/TKO (+160, 0.25u) at FanDuel | Barlow Live after Round 1
