Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo at UFC 298 on Saturday, Feb. 17 – our expert pick and prediction.
Saturday's UFC 298 main card features a potential No. 1 contender matchup at 135 pounds between rising star Merab Dvalishvili and former two-division champion Henry Cejudo.
After a few years of "retirement," Cejudo returned to active competition last May, dropping a close split decision in his bid to reclaim bantamweight gold. That fight was against Dvalishvili's training partner and close friend, Aljamain Sterling.
With Sterling now competing at featherweight, the path is somewhat clear for either of these elite grapplers to challenge for the title sometime later this year.
Here's my Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo pick and prediction for UFC 298.
Tale of the Tape
| Dvalishvili | Cejudo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-4 | 16-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:24 | 13:21 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 64" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/10/1991 | 2/9/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 6.6 | 2.1 |
| TD Acc | 36% | 34% |
| TD Def | 78% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Henry "Triple C" Cejudo is one of the most decorated combat-sport athletes of all time. Besides championships in two UFC weight classes, he's also an Olympic gold medal wrestler and amateur "Copper Gloves" champion boxer in his youth.
Those accomplishments were also a long time ago. Cejudo certainly didn't look washed in his return to competition against Sterling, but he's also clearly not the same fighter. He'd surrendered just one takedown in 12 UFC fights before Sterling – who took him down four times in their bout. Sterling also landed 135 significant strikes on Cejudo, 54 more than any prior opponent.
With Cejudo is mostly known for his wrestling, his striking is arguably just as strong for MMA. He fights out of a wide, karate-style stance, looking for any opportunity to dart into the pocket and exchange blows. He clipped Aljo with some solid knees up the middle, and he used that technique to perfection in his knockout of Dominic Cruz prior to his retirement.
Of course, those things are all set up by his wrestling. He can widen his stance due to his confidence in defending single-leg takedowns on his extended front leg, and the knees are made possible by opponents needing to carry their hands low and their stances lower in case they need to sprawl.
All of which might not work against Dvalishvili.
Dvalishvili is the most relentless takedown artist in the UFC, averaging a ridiculous 6.55 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempting roughly 18 for every three rounds in the UFC octagon.
Much like his teammate Sterling, "The Machine" won't shy away from turning this into a wrestling match, and he will likely be the one to initiate much of the grappling. That should also stop some of the aggressive jumping in from Cejudo, who will need to be wary of takedowns coming his way.
On the other hand, he won't need to lunge in as aggressively as he did against Sterling since Dvalishvili's reach advantage is just an inch compared to the four that Sterling enjoyed.
While known for his takedowns, the former combat sambo silver medalist is also a dynamic and creative striker. He's been known to start fights with wild spinning hook kicks, and – like Cejduo – relies on his wrestling ability to allow him to open up his striking game.
Dvalishvili impressively beat Jose Aldo by unanimous decision without landing a single takedown, and a similar strategy might be necessary here. Dvalishvili used wrestling shots to get into clinch range while constantly beating Aldo to the punch (literally) on the break. If he struggles to ground Cejudo, a similar game plan could still earn him the victory here.
Finally, I'd be remiss to not mention the Georgian's most impressive ability: his cardio. Dvalishvili looked great in his first five-round test last March, and he has never shown a single sign of slowing despite his outlandish output in both striking and grappling.
That's less relevant here given that this is a three-round fight, but it could still be a deciding factor if this one is close down the stretch.
Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo Pick
Breaking this fight down was tricky, particularly from the Cejudo side. The only appearance he's made in roughly four years was against Sterling, a fighter with a similar style to Dvalishvili but who is anthropomorphically entirely different.
Much of Cejudo's struggles on the feet were due to the range kept by Sterling, which won't be an issue here.
Still, while Cejudo was impressive in his return, he was still noticeably diminished from his prime. That was about nine months ago, so it's reasonable to project an even further decline in his speed and reaction time this weekend.
Which Dvalishvili will certainly put to the test, thanks to his combination of relentless pace and excellent mixing of the martial arts.
I was initially wary about laying the juice on Dvalishvili – what happens if he can't take down Cejudo? – until I rewatched the Aldo fight.
While that wasn't exactly prime Aldo, he was still more than a year younger than Cejduo will be on Saturday. I expect Dvalishvili to be a step quicker wherever this fight goes – and hopefully earn a title shot for his efforts.
I'll take his moneyline, but if you want to get a little crazy, I think there's also value on Dvalishvili's knockout prop at +550 odds as well.
The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili (-210 at BetMGM)
