UFC 298 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera: Take a Shot on Submission Prop (Saturday, February 17)

UFC 298 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera: Take a Shot on Submission Prop (Saturday, February 17) article feature image
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Suhaimi Abdullah/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC bantamweight Rinya Nakamura of Japan

Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera Odds

Nakamura Odds
-1500
Vera Odds
+870
Over/Under
1.5 (-122 / -104)
Location
Honda Center – Anaheim, California
Time
8:30 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC 298 with our FanDuel promo code.

Here's everything you need to know about Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera at UFC 298 on Saturday, Feb. 17 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.

Road to the Octagon bantamweight winner Nakamura looks to keep his perfect record intact when he meets The Ultimate Fighter vet Vera.

Here's my Nakamura vs. Vera pick and prediction for the UFC 298 preliminary card.

Tale of the Tape

NakamuraVera
Record8-011-3
Avg. Fight Time5:20n/a
Height5'7"5'6"
Weight (pounds)135.5 lbs.135.5 lbs.
Reach (inches)68"69"
StanceSouthpawOrthodox
Date of birth3/23/199511/5/1987
Sig Strikes Per Min4.20.0
SS Accuracy54%0%
SS Absorbed Per Min1.780.00
SS Defense70%0%
Take Down Avg4.230.00
TD Acc85%0%
TD Def100%0%
Submission Avg2.80.0

Nakamura is the heaviest favorite on Saturday's card, reaching banana-peel pricing against short-notice debutant Vera, who is old (36) for the bantamweight division.

Both fighters prefer to grapple, but Nakamura is a far superior athlete, a decorated freestyle wrestler, and a fascinating prospect in the bantamweight division after transitioning from wrestling to MMA in 2020.

Vera is comfortable on his back, where I expect him to be for most of the fight, but Nakamura is a bit unorthodox with his control. He prefers north-south or side control against opponents rather than going for half-guard or mount more consistently.

Nakamura vs. Vera Pick

To be blunt, I don't think that Vera is UFC-caliber. Brad Katona dominated him on The Ultimate Fighter, and Vera was previously signed by the UFC – and cut – as a short-notice replacement for a card last year.

The promotion doesn't view him as anything other than a warm body.

UFC 298 Props: 6 Oh-So-Juicy Picks and Predictions from the MMA Prop Squad Image

Nakamura should run through this type of opponent on the ground if he is a serious prospect.

Take a shot on Nakamura by submission (projected +265, listed +275), inside the distance (projected -177, listed -175), or pass on this fight.

The Pick: Rinya Nakamura wins by Submission (+275, 0.2u) at FanDuel

QuickSlip Link for FanDuel Sportsbook

About the Author
Sean is a Senior Writer at The Action Network and a lawyer in the state of New York. He primarily covers baseball, synthesizing advanced metrics with traditional scouting techniques, and believes that Bartolo Colón's home run was the single greatest athletic achievement of our time.

Follow Sean Zerillo @SeanZerillo on Twitter/X.

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