Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa at UFC 298 on Saturday, Feb. 17 – our expert pick and prediction.
The co-headliner for UFC 298 features a top-shelf middleweight attraction between former champion Whittaker (-250) and divisional mainstay Costa (+205).
Whittaker is coming off a disappointing defeat to now-champion Dricus Du Plessis and will undoubtedly be looking for redemption this Saturday.
Costa, on the other hand, has not been seen since his 2022 win over Luke Rockhold due to a multitude of reasons that range from elbow infections to bout re-shufflings.
Although one fighter is coming off of a loss and the other off of a win, these two have quietly been on a collision course for some time now.
Here's my Whittaker vs. Costa pick and prediction for UFC 298 on Saturday night.
Tale of the Tape
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| Whittaker | Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-7 | 14-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:04 | 10:40 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185.5 lbs. | 185.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/20/1990 | 8/21/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 60% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.4 | 6.4 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.85 | 0.53 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 75% |
| TD Def | 82% | 59% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Even though Whittaker and Costa are Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts, both men traditionally tend to sort things out on their feet.
An inherent pressure fighter, Costa is a big fan of bullying opposition back to the cage with powerful, corralling strikes.
Whether Costa's going to the body or the head, the 32-year-old bruiser does a decent job at varying the timing of his shots.
And when he's feeling in stride, Costa will unabashedly punctuate exchanges with hard kicks to the body.
Costa hasn't shown a ton of his wrestling or jiu-jitsu in the UFC, but "Borrachinha" initially stepped onto the scene as a grapple-first fighter, so I imagine that those skills are still firmly intact.
That said, I'm not sure how much grappling traction he can count on when facing a fighter like Whittaker.
A fleet of foot karate-boxer who knows how to wrestle, Whittaker can be difficult to get hold of, to say the least.
Hoping in and out of range, Whittaker possesses solid distance striking tools in the form of jabs and oblique kicks.
Utilizing unique timing signatures and change-ups, Whittaker will often draw out reactions that he can either build off of or adjust to on the fly.
Whittaker also has a mean left hook and high kick that could serve him well in this contest, but he can't afford to sleep on the grappling of Costa.
As we saw in his last outing opposite Du Plessis, taker was not beyond allowing an opponent to get the jump on him with opportunistic offense.
If Whittaker's health and focus are where they should be for this fight, then I suspect that the 33-year-old can get back to dictating the "wheres" and "whens" of the wrestling exchanges.
Whittaker vs. Costa Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the former champion, listing taker -250 and Costa +205 as of this writing.
I don't disagree with Whittaker being a moderate favorite, but I can understand if you don't find his price attractive from a betting perspective.
Although I'll probably still end up throwing Whittaker in a parlay, I'll also be taking a shot on the "fight doesn't go the distance" prop at plus money – which could serve as a potential hedge for any said parlay exposure on the Whittaker side.
Aside from the fact that Whittaker is well overdue for a finish (given that he hasn't gotten one since 2017), this is a fight that has violence written all over it from a stylistic standpoint.
Costa's hard hooks and kicks will be a constant threat while they're on their feet, but Whittaker carries the tools that have traditionally troubled Costa throughout his career: jabs and checking counters.
For that reason, I'll be picking Whittaker to win late via the return of his vaunted left hook.
The Pick: Whittaker vs. Costa "Fight Doesn't Go the Distance" (+105 at Caesars)
