Zhang Mingyang vs. Brendson Ribeiro Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Zhang Mingyang vs. Brendson Ribeiro at UFC 298 on Saturday, Feb. 17 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
This light heavyweight bout between a pair of debutants, who earned contracts on Road to the UFC and Contender Series at long odds of +450 (Zhang) and +380 (Ribeiro), should be a war for as long as it lasts.
Here's my Zhang vs. Ribeiro pick and prediction for the UFC 298 prelims.
Tale of the Tape
| Mingyang | Ribeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-6 | 15-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 3:57 | 3:47 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 204.5 lbs. | 205.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 81" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/16/1998 | 9/8/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 8.9 | 8.5 |
| SS Accuracy | 56% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.57 | 5.29 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 64% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 0% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
This is the most heavily favored bout to end inside the distance on Saturday – as high as -1100, or 91.7% implied.
They are a pair of glass cannons: These fighters have seen 35 of their 43 professional bouts (81.3%) end in the first round, including 13 straight for Zhang and five consecutive for Ribeiro.
Unfortunately, the under is not playable at current pricing.
Even though I expect the fight to end inside the distance 85% of the distance (+567 implied odds), I'm still below market. The fight to end in Round 1 is seemingly playable at -200 (66.7% implied), compared to the career average for both fighters (implied odds of -435) – but that is also an uncomfortable price.
Mingyang vs. Ribeiro Pick
I'd prefer to pick a side to win in that opening frame and would instead take Zhang (+185) or Ribeiro (+275) to win in Round 1 instead of laying -200 for either one to fall.
Despite a six-inch reach discrepancy, Zhang is the more educated striker while Ribeiro has more grappling upside. Zhang is more reliable in coming out on top of what odds indicate will be a quick brawl.
I took Zhang by KO/TKO (projected +146, listed +175 at WynnBet), where the price difference between that prop and his Round 1 prop was only 10 cents. Those KO odds should be closer to even money, but I'd hunt for something in that neighborhood if you're betting only on Round 1.
The Pick: Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO (+175, 0.25u) at WynnBet
