UFC 299 Odds, Picks, Predictions for All 14 Fights: Sean Zerillo’s Betting Preview (Saturday, March 9)

Check out all of my UFC 299 predictions for all 14 fights and my UFC 299 picks for Saturday's pay-per-view event and the Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera main event.

Below, I break down the UFC 299 odds and predict all 14 of the matchups, which take place tonight at Kaseya Center in Miami.

The UFC 299 preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before moving to ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card then kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ pay-per-view (cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And UFC 299 is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights on the UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera fight card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

UFC 299 Odds, Picks, Predictions for All 14 Fights

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 299 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 14 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings.

UFC 299 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside the distance.

UFC 299 Odds

Joanne Wood vs. Maryna Moroz

Crowdsourced Projections: Maryna Moroz (67.1%)

Joanne Wood will enter the UFC octagon for the 16th and final time on Saturday. The Scottish martial artist will retire after 25 professional MMA bouts. She hopes to avenge a 2015 upset loss via submission to Maryna Moroz, in which Wood closed as a substantial -550 favorite.

Moroz is six years younger, has a two-inch reach advantage, and retains all the grappling upside in this matchup. Still, the Ukrainian has looked flat in her past two performances, failing to cover her price tag (-150 and +115, respectively) in either contest.

Aside from her loss to Moroz, all of Wood's wins have come against champions, title challengers or top-three contenders (Alexa Grasso, Talia Santos, Lauren Murphy, Jennifer Maia, Katlyn Cerminara, Cynthia Calvillo, Jessica Andrade) in her division.

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Wood is the superior kicker and offers substantially more volume at range (+3.1 to -0.3 strike differential per minute). If she can deny the takedowns and avoid grappling exchanges, she should land more damage than Moroz.

Although she hasn't technically shown improvements in her defensive grappling in recent bouts – submitting via rear-naked choke to Talia Santos and Alexa Grasso – Moroz is a significant step down in competition relative to those opponents.

I don't project value on either side of the moneyline or total for this matchup. And Moroz by submission (projected +397, listed +334) seems far too obvious.

I project an edge on Wood by decision (projected +280, listed +420 at FanDuel), and I'm inclined to take a small stab on the busier striker at +300 or better.

Bets

• Joanne Wood wins by Decision (+410, 0.1u) at FanDuel

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C.J. Vergara vs. Assu Almabayev

Crowdsourced Projections: Assu Almabaev (83.1%)

C.J. Vergara missed weight for the third time in his UFC career on Friday, and he has a tough matchup against Assu Almabaev, who excels at taking the back of opponents and choking them out. It's a position Vergara has consistently found himself defending throughout his UFC run.

Vergara has shown excellent cardio and survival skills to generate a 4-2 record under the UFC banner (including a win on Contender Series). Still, he's consistently in trouble, especially early, and he tends to make fight-IQ mistakes to put himself in bad positions, particularly on the mat.

I don't project value on either side of the moneyline for this matchup. However, depending on the book, I show slight value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -172) and Almabaev by submission (projected +100), and I'd play the latter at +110 or better.

Vergara relied upon cardio and durability to generate victories in the UFC. Still, Almabayev is likely the better athlete in both areas, and Vergara's weight miss could further strain his gas tank.

Bets

• Assu Almabayev wins by Submission (+150, 0.25u) at WynnBet

Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian

Crowdsourced Projections: Robelis Despaigne (78.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Despaigne is a fascinating fighter and a throwback to the earliest days of the UFC. He's a 6-foot-7 heavyweight with the longest reach in UFC history (84 inches), an Olympic bronze medal in taekwondo – an impractical base for MMA – and his last three wins have ended in 12 seconds or less (19 seconds combined).

Aside from powerful head kicks, we have very little information on Despaigne's overall MMA skills or his ability to fight beyond the five-minute mark. Additionally, he faced very low-level competition; his four opponents were a combined 1-0 outside of their losses to Despaigne.

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Parisian is a plodding fighter and seemingly an easy target for Despaigne in the early moments of this matchup. And as the taller fighter (3 inches) with a five-inch reach advantage, I expect Despaigne to start fast.

Suppose that Parisian can absorb that damage and keep fighting. In that case, he may be able to flip the momentum of the matchup, mainly if he can employ any grappling, where he likely has a technical advantage (even if Despaigne is the stronger fighter). Parisian has vastly more MMA experience (22 professional fights), three wins at the UFC level, and has proven his overall skill set, even if he's a below-average UFC heavyweight.

As a result, while the projections favor Despaigne more than his listed odds, I think this fight is a 'dog or pass from a moneyline perspective. If Despaigne is looking a little tired, I'd consider live betting Parisian after Round 1.

However, from a pre-fight perspective, I like Under 0.5 Rounds (+170 at DraftKings) or a first-minute finish in this matchup; if Despaigne covers his pricetag, he likely does it quickly, and I view that bet as the majority of his win condition.

Bets

• Under 0.5 Rounds (+170, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• SGP (+235, 0.1u) at DraftKings: Robelis Despaigne and Under 0.5 Rounds
• Josh Parisian Live after Round 1

Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Crowdsourced Projections: Michel Pereira (52.8%)

This middleweight prelim fight is a strong contender for a fight-night bonus. Michal Oleksiejczuk is my favorite underdog bet – and one of the few moneylines I have bet overall – for Saturday's card.

Given his fighting style, the Polish native is always worth a pre-fight look. From the opening bell, he applies heavy forward pressure to opponents, backing them to the fence while mixing heavy boxing combinations to the head and body.

Moreover, his power has looked even more potent – and his takedown defense more formidable – since he moved from light heavyweight to middleweight in 2022.

I expect Oleksiejczuk to have a significant power advantage (especially early) against Pereira, who used to compete at welterweight and prefers to be the aggressor rather than fighting off the back foot. I would project him to win the first round on the scorecards—or finish the fight in the opening round—greater than 50% of the time.

Neither fighter has shown solid cardio, but Pereira typically slows regardless of the pace of his fights, whereas Michal often struggles to maintain a pace that he initially sets. As a result, I think Oleksiejczuk's pressure could force both fighters to wilt, leaving the underdog at potential cardio parity over the final 10 minutes, where he's typically at a disadvantage.

Aside from potentially wrestling and accumulating top time over a tiring Oleksiejczuk for the final two rounds, I don't see a clear advantage for Pereira in this fight.

Take Michal's moneyline down to +120 (projected +115), and consider betting his knockout prop (projected +203) or Round 1 KO/TKO prop (listed +550).

Bets

• Michal Oleksiejczuk (+130, 0.5u) at BetMGM
• Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by Round 1 KO/TKO (+550, 0.1u) at FanDuel

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Ion Cuetlaba vs. Philipe Lins

Crowdsourced Projections: Phillip Lins (50.4%) 

These light heavyweights were supposed to fight last October, but Philipe Lins withdrew on fight day with an illness.

I view Lins as a slight favorite in a pick'em fight and the value side of the moneyline – if you can find plus-money – but I'm more inclined to live bet Lins after Round 1.

Ion Cutelaba is always a handful for at least five minutes – the Moldovan has scored 15 of his 17 wins in six minutes or less. He's the younger man and the better athlete, and he has a significant speed and grappling advantage over a former heavyweight.

However, Lins is the bigger man (three-inch reach advantage), the more efficient striker (+0.3 to -0.2 significant strike differential at range), and offers better cardio.

You can consider betting Lins small, pre-fight, to +105, and I'd take a bigger position live after round 1.

Additionally, depending upon your preference, I show value on Lins to win by decision (projected +466) or knockout (projected +260). I'd set those odds at +118 on a double-chance prop and saw as high as +175.

Lastly, I'll consider betting Lins to win in Round 2 (+600) or Round 3 (+1200).

Bets

• Philipe Lins (+110, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Philipe Lins Live after Round 1

Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips

Crowdsourced Projections: Kyler Phillips (61.2%)

Pedro Munhoz is another fighter on this card (along with Philipe Lins and Marlon Vera) for whom I project moneyline value betting from a pre-fight perspective. However, I anticipate finding a better live price betting after Round 1.

Kyler Phillips is nine years younger than Munhoz. He's the bigger (seven-inch reach advantage) and better athlete, and his success is typically frontloaded. As I regularly mention, where there is at least an eight-year age gap between UFC opponents, the younger fighter wins 13% above expectation (68.6% at average implied odds of 55.6%).

Still, Phillips relies on mixing his striking and grappling to overwhelm and separate opponents, and Munhoz is highly durable and an excellent counter-grappler (82% takedown defense).

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Phillips should be the busier fighter in Round 1, but Munhoz will look to land leg kicks and attritional strikes against him, which could pay dividends in the later rounds.

Additionally, Phillips has shown a tendency to slow down in the third round, regardless of the pace of his fights. I anticipate Munhoz winning the third round much more frequently than he does the opening five minutes.

While Munhoz has performed exceptionally well – broadly covering his pricetag and outperforming his record during a 2-5-1 run, all against top-flight competition – he's still 37 years old. That's five years above the division average, and his level is likely to fall off shortly, even as he takes a step down in competition.

As a result, while I show pre-fight value on the Munhoz side (projected +158) and his odds to win by decision (projected +268), I'm inclined to wait for his moneyline to poke above +200 before jumping in; otherwise, I'll wait for a live entry.

Bets

• Pedro Munhoz Live after Round 1

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Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos

Crowdsourced Projections: Mateusz Gamrot (83.3%) 

Like Pedro Munhoz, 39-year-old Rafael dos Anjos is ancient relative to his division (average age 33). Although he has continued outperforming expectations this late in his career, the drop-off could come in any fight, especially after floating between welterweight and lightweight.

Moreover, he'll face a frustrating opponent in Mateusz Gamrot, a much quicker athlete with a high-paced wrestling style (attempting 6.4 takedowns per 5 minutes) that is difficult to separate from or win clear minutes against.

While dos Anjos is an excellent grappler and an extremely well-rounded fighter, he has struggled against similarly persistent wrestlers; I wouldn't say I like the matchup for the Brazilian, stylistically or athletically, at this stage of his career.

I don't show value on the total or any winning method props; however, I do show an edge on Gamrot's moneyline (projected -499) in a fight heavily juiced to reach a decision. You can consider using Gamrot as a parlay piece up to about -465.

Typically, I want the underdog in a fight likely to reach the scorecards; still, Gamrot's cardio advantage should win him at least two rounds at a very high percentage.

Bets

• Parlay (-125, Risk 0.5u): Mateusz Gamrot (-425) & Benoit Saint Denis (-218)

Katlyn Cerminara vs. Maycee Barber

Crowdsourced Projections: Maycee Barber (63%)

Katlyn Cerminara (nee Chookagian) is an extremely solid top-five gatekeeper in the flyweight division. She has the tools to give Mayce Barber, who has scored numerous split decisions in her ascension, a difficult fight.

Cerminara is the more technical striker at range and has better footwork. Still, physicality goes a long way in lighter-weight classes, and Cerminara doesn't have the power to stop Barber from crashing the pocket and bullying her in the clinch.

Barber is 10 years younger, more explosive, and has most of the offensive grappling upside. Chookagian's size advantage (four inches taller, three-inch reach) will be noticeable when she can extend on her straight punches. Still, Barber prefers to dirty box with opponents in a telephone booth or press opponents against the fence and wear on them, nullifying Cerminara's advantage.

Additionally, Maycee builds her pace well towards the end of her three-round fights, and she will seemingly excel throughout five rounds.

Pre-fight, I would consider betting Cerminara on the moneyline (projected +170) at +185 or better, or play her decision prop (projected +200) down to +220.

However, I'd look to bet Barber live after Round 1 if she falls behind. She's tenacious and will double down on her aggressiveness if she's trailing.

Bets

• Katlyn Cerminara wins by Decision (+250, 0.2u)
• Maycee Barber Live after Round 1

Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida

Crowdsourced Projections: Jailton Almeida (52.5%) 

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's featured prelim, check out the full Jailton Almeida vs. Curtis Blaydes preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Former middleweight Almeida has proven to be a freakish athlete at the heavyweight level, and his grappling skill set is beyond the majority of the division. Blaydes could prove his stiffest test to date; the vet was a junior college national champion in wrestling before training in MMA.

Blaydes is the far superior striker in this matchup and will look to counter-wrestle and knock out Almeida, who has quickly taken down and out-grappled each of his UFC opponents. The Brazilian does manage distance well and stays out of striking range until he's ready to shoot.

While Blaydes has a bit of a wonky chin and could get caught with his hands low while defending a feigned takedown, Almeida's kicking game is much better than his hands.

While it seems challenging to image Almeida rag-dolling Blaydes, who holds the UFC heavyweight record for takedowns in a fight and has spent 96% of his grappling time controlling opponents, Almeida is the superior submission grappler and has better positional control. Blaydes may get overconfident and roll into submission if he's put on his back early.

Bet Almeida's moneyline to around -110 (projected -112) where available and play his submission prop (projected +281) or other violence variations (win in round 1, by round 1 submission, etc.)

Bets

• Jailton Almeida wins by submission (+350, 0.25u) at FanDuel

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Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong

Crowdsourced Projections: Petr Yan (55.4%)

Like Marlon Vera, Petr Yan is a notoriously slow starter, narrowing his margin for error in three-round contests. His style is much more effective, and his price is more justifiable as a favorite in five-round fights instead of three.

Yan is the more technical fighter in this matchup. Still, Song Yadong is the superior athlete, the more powerful puncher, and – at age 26 – likelier to progress to a higher performance tier. In contrast, Yan is approaching the wrong side of the age curve for bantamweight.

I'm curious to see if Yan takes a more aggressive approach in this matchup and opens up more in the first round because his slow starts against both Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley cost him dearly (he lost a tight Round 1 on two of three scorecards in both fights), ultimately determining the outcomes. Yan has never changed his pacing between three- and five-round fights, and it finally cost him a pair of split decisions.

I'd happily bet Yan in a five-round fight at this price point. Still, he will have difficulty covering the number in a shorter bout. Song's edges in early output and power throughout the fight give him an extremely high floor.

Moreover, both fighters have excellent cardio and are incredibly durable, and the fight is heavily favored to reach a decision. I also lean toward the Over or the fight to reach a decision (projected -267) and expect a close matchup; that's a difficult number to lay with two bantamweights as dangerous as they are durable.

I would consider betting Yan to -120 (projected -124) pre-fight; otherwise, I'd wait for a live entry after Round 1.

Alternatively, if Song keeps Round 1 50/50 – and potentially wins it – but his odds blow out near +200, I'd consider betting him live instead of Yan. Essentially, take plus money on either side after Round 1, so long as Song doesn't lose the round convincingly.

Bets

• Live Bet Petr Yan or Song Yadong after Round 1

Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Crowdsourced Projections: Jack Della Maddalena (58.6%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's main card welterweight bout, check out the full Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

I like this fight to end inside the distance more frequently than the odds suggest. Additionally, I show slight value on Burns' moneyline (projected +141) and his submission prop (projected +302).

Della Maddalena showed significant grappling concerns in his win over Bassil Hafez. Still, the Australian proved that he has excellent cardio – and output across 15 minutes – in a high-paced fight.

Most concerningly, Della Maddalena stood his ground and swung hooks rather than avoiding or defending takedown attempts from Hafez. If he gets put on his back by Burns, one of the more dangerous submission grapplers in the UFC, he could be in serious trouble. One takedown may be enough for Burns to finish the fight.

Burns' athleticism is declining at this stage of his career; Maddalena is 10 years younger and much faster.

Burns is more powerful, but he can only produce a limited number of explosions during a 15-minute fight, and he's not exceptionally durable either.

Technically, Burns should be more competitive in striking than Maddalena is in grappling; realistically, I'm not sure if Burns will be able to track down Della Maddalena in the 30-foot cage. If JDM stays to the outside and uses his jab (two-inch reach advantage), he could frustrate Burns early, pick him apart, and land some big counters. And he can't jump the guillotine multiple times, as he tried against Hafez.

I expect this fight to end by finish nearly 70% of the time; bet the Under 2.5 Rounds to -160.

I'd want +150 or better to bet Burns on the moneyline, at least +340 to play his submission prop (projected +300), and +245 to play his inside the distance prop (projected +223). 

Bets

• Gilbert Burns wins Inside the Distance (+275, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Gilbert Burns wins by Submission (+380, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Under 2.5 (-150, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars

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Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page

Crowdsourced Projections: Kevin Holland (56.2%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's featured bout, check out the full Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Exciting Englishman "Venom' Page arrives in the UFC past his prime but in a potentially winnable matchup against Holland, who should oblige his opponent and the fans by providing an exciting striking matchup.

Holland is the longer fighter (two-inch reach advantage), offers more volume as a striker, and has a significant grappling advantage in this fight. Still, I expect Holland to adhere to a similar gentlemen's agreement as in his fight against Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson – using occasional takedowns to break pressure without looking to control his opponent strategically.

As a result, it's difficult to bet Holland on the moneyline. If he's not going to exploit his grappling advantage, Page should probably be favored or a pick'em at worst.

Strategically, this fight should play out similarly to the Holland vs. Thompson matchup. Holland has the speed advantage and should be able to land on Page early. However, MVP is the better technician and more creative striker, and his footwork and karate angles should confuse Holland and eventually cause the American to slow down from tracking MVP around the cage.

I expect this fight to reach the judges more often than the odds suggest (projected -162); bet the distance prop at -150 or better.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (-149, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel

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Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis

Crowdsourced Projections: Benoit Saint Denis (68.2%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's co-main event, check out the full Benoit Saint Denis vs. Dustin Poirier preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

The initial opener had Saint Denis as a +145 underdog in this five-round matchup. After sharp action, the line reopened at -142 and has steadily shifted toward the Saint Denis side.

Poirier is 35 and coming off a nasty knockout loss following several wars. There's a nonzero chance – following that head kick from Justin Gaethje – that his chin will never be the same. Regardless of his durability, Poirier is likely to experience a dip in speed and overall athleticism, given the confluence of his age and absorbed damage.

Conversely, the 28-year-old Saint Denis is streaking toward a title shot, with a 5-0 record in the lightweight division and a career 100% finish rate. You can all but draw a line through his short-notice debut up a division against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.

Saint Denis is far from a complete fighter. He's exceptionally hittable on the feet (44% striking defense) and doesn't have great offensive boxing either. However, his game plan is coherent; St. Denis relies on a powerful left kick to the body and head, which he uses to put opponents off balance and create openings to grapple. Once he gets his hands on them, Saint Denis overwhelms opponents with pace and pressure.

Poirier is a much better striker but may not get many opportunities to fight at a distance (career +1.3 significant strike differential per minute). He hasn't faced many grapplers, but his offensive grappling is far superior to his defensive grappling, and fighters who force the issue can consistently take Poirier's back.

Saint Denis should win the early minutes, get his hands around Poirier, and dominate positionally. But if he doesn't finish early and the fight extends, the Louisiana native could rally in the championship rounds.

And if Saint Denis looks for a breather early after an unsuccessful takedown attempt, Poirier will seize those moments to fire combinations and put the Frenchman on the defensive.

Depending upon the book, I show slight value on Saint-Denis winning (projected -214), his odds of winning inside the distance (projected -158), or on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -511).

I'm surprised to see the Over 1.5 Rounds bet up alongside Saint Denis. Those outcomes seem negatively correlated.

Under 1.5 was my initial read, and I considered playing an Under ladder, but if I chose one bet for this fight, it's the Under 2.5 Rounds to -130.

Bets

• Under 2.5 Rounds (-125, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings

Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera

Crowdsourced Projections: Sean O'Malley (66.2%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's main event and bantamweight title bout, check out my Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera preview.

In short, the early output and optics for the judges should strongly favor O'Malley on the scorecards. Still, Vera's toughness should keep him in the fight, and his cardio should permit a potential rally down the stretch into the championship rounds. You're almost certainly going to find a better price on Chito's live moneyline – after Rounds 1, 2, or 3 – than you can take pre-fight.

As a result, while I bet Chito in the first matchup at +225 (projected +178) and see a similar edge on his moneyline in the rematch (projected +196), you should hopefully be able to grab something closer to +400 live after the opening frame.

Instead, poke Vera's finish prop – or odds to win inside the distance (projected +323, listed +400), play his finish-only moneyline (no-action if decision) at plus money, and wait for a live entry anytime after Round 1.

Bets

• Marlon Vera – Finish Only Moneyline (+140, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Marlon Vera Wins Inside the Distance (+400, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Marlon Vera Live anytime after Round 1

UFC 299 Bets

Moneyline Bets

• Philipe Lins (+110, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Michal Oleksiejczuk (+130, 0.5u) at BetMGM

Prop Bets and Totals

• Joanne Wood wins by Decision (+410, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Assu Almabayev wins by Submission (+150, 0.25u) at WynnBet
• Despaigne/Parisian, Under 0.5 Rounds (+170, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by Round 1 KO/TKO (+550, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Katlyn Cerminara wins by Decision (+250, 0.2u)
• Jailton Almeida wins by Submission (+350, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Gilbert Burns wins Inside the Distance (+275, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Gilbert Burns wins by Submission (+380, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Burns/Della Maddalena, Under 2.5 Rounds (-150, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars
• Holland/Page, Fight Goes to Decision (-149, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel
• Poirier/Saint Denis, Under 2.5 Rounds (-125, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings
• Marlon Vera – Finish Only Moneyline (+140, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Marlon Vera Wins Inside the Distance (+400, 0.1u) at DraftKings

Parlays

• Parlay (-125, Risk 0.5u): Mateusz Gamrot (-425) & Benoit Saint Denis (-218)
• Same-Game Parlay (+235, 0.1u) at DraftKings: Robelis Despaigne & Under 0.5 Rounds

Live Bets

• Josh Parisian Live after Round 1
• Philipe Lins Live after Round 1
• Pedro Munhoz Live after Round 1
• Maycee Barber Live after Round 1
• Live Bet Petr Yan or Song Yadong after Round 1
• Marlon Vera Live anytime after Round 1