Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida odds at UFC 299 on Saturday, March 9 – with our expert UFC prediction and pick.
One of the recurring themes at UFC 299 is an established top contender taking on a hard-charging prospect who's looking to climb to the top of the division. That's the dynamic in the co-main event, as well as the welterweight tilt between Jack Della Maddalena and Gilbert Burns.
Perhaps the most intriguing example, though, is at heavyweight in UFC 299's featured prelim. Top-five staple Curtis Blaydes is roughly a pick'em against Jailton Almeida, a 6-0 prospect who's been dominant in fights across two divisions.
The pair were slated to meet last fall before a Blaydes injury pushed back the fight. While the heavyweight division is a bit murky at the top, the winner here could be in line for an interim title challenge against Tom Aspinall in the somewhat near future, making for high stakes in this ESPN-televised bout (9:30 p.m. ET).
Here's my Blaydes vs. Almeida preview and best bet for UFC 299.
Tale of the Tape
| Blaydes | Almeida | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-4 | 20-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:14 | 7:55 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 265 lbs. | 236 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/18/1991 | 6/26/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.56 | 2.78 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 64% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.89 | 0.52 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 43% |
| Take Down Avg | 5.93 | 5.14 |
| TD Acc | 53% | 55% |
| TD Def | 33% | 75% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 2.4 |
It's hard to ignore the statistical dominance of Almeida. Heading into his last fight, he was 5-0 in the UFC, and he got there without absorbing a single significant strike. That last fight was his first five-round appearance, and it was a down performance by his standards. He absorbed 20 significant strikes from Derrick Lewis (who filled in for Blaydes) and wasn't able to finish "The Black Beast."
Still, it's hard to say that performance downgraded him. He took Lewis down six times across five rounds, and he racked up more than 21 minutes of control time across 25 total minutes. While Lewis isn't known for his grappling, no previous opponent controlled him as thoroughly – including Blaydes, who went 0-for-3 on takedown attempts before being knocked out in the second round.
Of course, the absurd stats on Almeida require some context.
He broke into the UFC at light heavyweight and has another win over Anton Turkalj at a 220-pound catchweight, though Turkalj is primarily also a 205er. Two of his four heavyweight wins are against lower-tier fighters in Parker Porter and Shamil Abdurakhimov, as well.
Still, the level of dominance displayed against Lewis and Jairzinho Rozenstruik – both ranked fighters – is hard to ignore. Almeida will be the smaller man in the octagon at UFC 299, but Blaydes typically comes in somewhat under the heavyweight limit while Lewis probably cuts weight to make 265.
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That means size won't be the limiting factor on his dominant grappling style against Blaydes. On the other hand, Blaydes, a former junior college wrestler, is by far the best grappler Almeida has been matched. Almeida is pretty clearly the better submission grappler, but getting the fight to the canvas could be a problem. Blaydes has been taken down only four times in 17 UFC fights.
Typically Blaydes' game plan is to hunt for takedowns of his own, and he averges almost six per 15 minutes of UFC cage time.
Given the relative lack of high-level grappling in the heavyweight division, he's found plenty of success in that area. That probably won't be his game plan against Almeida, though.
Which could mean this bout plays out on the feet. Almeida's striking is a true unknown; he's grounded each of his opponents early in their fights. For what it's worth, he's been training boxing since age 6 according to an interview – but I'll believe it when I see it.
Blaydes is a dangerous man to trade with, and he has clear knockout power. However, much of the reason he's able to swing for the fences is the knowledge that he has a grappling edge over his opponents. Expect a more cautious striking approach from Blaydes here, though, he'll be wary of takedowns coming back from Almeida.
While I'd still make Blaydes the favorite in a pure striking matchup, it's firmly in the category of guesswork. We've never really had a matchup where Blaydes is concerned with defending takedowns, which will have a big impact on how much he's able to open up.
Blaydes vs. Almeida Pick
It's hard to evaluate the grappling prospects here. Almeida has almost exclusively fought strikers or much lower-level grapplers in his UFC run. Still, I think he'll be able to get this one to the canvas.
Blaydes' offensive takedown ability doesn't tell us much about his ability to defend takedowns, and we know Almeida is a near-unstoppable force in that area.
I also wouldn't be shocked by a Charles Oliveira-esque approach from Almeida, luring Blaydes in for some grappling by playing possum following a big strike from Blaydes – though that's a far more dangerous game at this weight class.
Either way, the black belt Almeida should have a massive edge once this one hits the canvas – with plenty of opportunities to get it there.
We've already seen Almeida's line drop from the plus money available earlier in the week, so jump on the -110 now. I expect Almeida to close closer to -125 or so by fight day on Saturday.
The Pick: Jailton Almeida (-110 at DraftKings or Caesars)
