Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena Odds
| 10:30 p.m. ET | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena odds at UFC 299 on Saturday, March 9 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Saturday's UFC 299 main card features the No. 4-ranked UFC welterweight contender Gilbert Burns taking on the No. 11 Jack Della Maddalena (or "JDM").
Despite the difference in rankings, JDM is priced as a moderate -165 favorite (BetRivers) while Burns returns at +145 (Caesars).
We have a potential fight of the night between these two strikers, and I walk through my thought process for this bout below.
Here's my Burns vs. Della Maddalena preview for UFC 299.
Tale of the Tape
| Burns | Della Maddalena | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-6 | 16-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:06 | 8:01 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 6/20/1986 | 9/1o/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.4 | 7.2 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.34 | 4.83 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 67% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.95 | 0.27 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 20% |
| TD Def | 47% | 82% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.3 |
Frankly, I think this line is too short on Della Maddalena, and I think a market bias exists because he is coming off two straight split-decision wins. The first came against UFC debutant Bassil Hafez, and I believe this is the fight that is keeping JDM this short of a favorite.
However, we need to keep in mind that the fight was not as close as a split decision would indicate, with more than 89% of media scores (and 76% of fan scores, for whatever that is worth) giving that bout to Della Maddalena.
On top of that, this was a short-notice fight against a guy who had never fought in the UFC.
JDM followed that fight up with another split-decision victory over Kevin Holland. Once again, I agree with the media and fans in the sense that I am not sure how you could give two rounds to Holland. Not surprisingly, 100% of the media scorecards gave the fight to JDM.
If Della Maddalena had won both of those fights by unanimous decision, and maybe looked more ready for the short-notice fight against a UFC debutant, would he have opened up this short of a favorite against Burns? I don't believe so.
And that is not to take anything from Burns, who is one of my favorite fighters to watch in the octagon. Burns' only losses are to some of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world.
But at the same time, none of Burns' recent wins has been anyone on JDM's current level.
Burns has beaten a retiring Jorge Masvidal, two divisional gatekeepers in Neil Magny and Stephen Thompson, and a washed-up (with all due respect) Tyron Woodley for his past four wins.
I think this fight will go much more like his title fight against Kamaru Usman, a bout in which Burns lost by KO/TKO in the third round.
Burns vs. Della Maddalena Pick
Hardly any portions of this fight will go to the mat, so if you like JDM to win inside the distance, then KO/TKO is the way to go. Burns has never tapped, and 11 of Della Maddalena's 13 finishes have come by KO.
Speaking of inside the distance, oddsmakers are expecting a finish here as the "does not go to decision" (DNGTD) prop is nearing -200 across the board.
There is just more to like about Della Maddalena, especially in a fight that is expected to bring fireworks on the feet. JDM is younger, taller, longer and is a far more efficient striker. He's not been knocked out in nearly a decade while Burns has sustained much more damage over the past three years.
I would take JDM's knockout prop down to +155.
The Pick: Jack Della Maddalena by KO/TKO (+165 at BetRivers)
