UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Ion Cuetlaba vs. Philipe Lins: Size Matters in This Bout (Saturday, March 9)

UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Ion Cuetlaba vs. Philipe Lins: Size Matters in This Bout (Saturday, March 9) article feature image
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Louis Grasse/Getty. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Philipe Lins

Ion Cuetlaba vs. Philipe Lins Odds

Cuetlaba Odds
-135
Lins Odds
+114
Over/Under
1.5 (+114 / -145)
Location
Kaseya Center in Miami
Time
7:30 p.m. ET
TV/Streaming
ESPN+
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 299 with our DraftKings promo code.

Here's everything you need to know about the Ion Cuetlaba vs. Philipe Lins odds at UFC 299 – with our expert pick and prediction for Saturday, March 9.

UFC 299's early prelims on ESPN+ conclude with these light heavyweights, who are in a featured slot for a reason.

The always-entertaining Cuetlaba recently snapped out of a skid, but his workload gets no easier as he now fights Lins, a former heavyweight who's on a 3-0 run in the UFC since his move down to 205 pounds.

Tale of the Tape

CuetlabaLins
Record17-9-117-5
Avg. Fight Time7:109:42
Height6'1"6'2"
Weight (pounds)205 lbs.206 lbs.
Reach (inches)75"78"
StanceSouthpawOrthodox
Date of birth12/14/19938/17/1985
Sig Strikes Per Min4.63.6
SS Accuracy43%46%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.293.73
SS Defense48%44%
Take Down Avg4.751.55
TD Acc58%35%
TD Def77%100%
Submission Avg0.00.0

These 205-pounders were supposed to fight last October, but Lins withdrew on fight day with an illness.

I view Lins as a slight favorite in a pick'em fight and the value side of the moneyline – if you can find plus-money – but I'm more inclined to live bet Lins after Round 1.

Cutelaba is always a handful for at least five minutes; the Moldovan has scored 15 of his 17 wins in six minutes or less. He's the younger man and the better athlete, and he has a significant speed and grappling advantage over a former heavyweight.

However, Lins is the bigger man (three-inch reach advantage), the more efficient striker (+0.3 to -0.2 significant strike differential at range), and offers better cardio.

UFC 299: Sean Zerillo's Betting Picks, Preview, Predictions for All 14 Fights Image
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Cuetlaba vs. Lins Pick

You can consider betting Lins small pre-fight to +105, and I'd take a bigger position live after round 1.

Additionally, depending upon your preference, I show value on Lins to win by decision (projected +466) or knockout (projected +260). I'd set those odds at +118 on a double-chance prop and saw as high as +175.

Lastly, I'll consider betting Lins to win in Round 2 (+600) or Round 3 (+1200).

The Picks: Philipe Lins (+110, 0.25u) at DraftKings | Lins Live after Round 1

About the Author
Sean is a Senior Writer at The Action Network and a lawyer in the state of New York. He primarily covers baseball, synthesizing advanced metrics with traditional scouting techniques, and believes that Bartolo Colón's home run was the single greatest athletic achievement of our time.

Follow Sean Zerillo @SeanZerillo on Twitter/X.

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