UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos: Use This Solid Parlay Piece (Saturday, March 9)

UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos: Use This Solid Parlay Piece (Saturday, March 9) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty. Pictured: UFC lightweight Mateusz Gamrot

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos Odds

Gamrot Odds
-455
dos Anjos Odds
+350
Over/Under
2.5 (-330 / +240)
Location
Kaseya Center in Miami
Time
8:30 p.m. ET
TV
ESPNews
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 299 with our DraftKings promo code.

Here's everything you need to know about the Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos odds at UFC 299 – with our expert pick and prediction for Saturday, March 9.

Former UFC lightweight champion dos Anjos is a massive underdog in this ESPN-televised prelim, largely due to his inconsistent results in recent years.

That's a stark contrast from Gamrot, a quickly rising 155-pound contender who's on a 6-1 run with four stoppages as he gets a chance to add an ex-titleholder to his win ledger.

Tale of the Tape

Gamrotdos Anjos
Record23-232-15
Avg. Fight Time11:3714:54
Height5'10"5'8"
Weight (pounds)156 lbs.156 lbs.
Reach (inches)70"70"
StanceSouthpawSouthpaw
Date of birth12/11/199010/26/1984
Sig Strikes Per Min2.973.52
SS Accuracy50%47%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.23.2
SS Defense60%60%
Take Down Avg4.362.01
TD Acc30%35%
TD Def90%56%
Submission Avg0.20.6

Like Pedro Munhoz, 39-year-old dos Anjos is ancient relative to his division (average age 33).

Although RDA has continued outperforming expectations this late in his career, the drop-off could come in any fight, especially after floating between welterweight and lightweight.

Moreover, he'll face a frustrating opponent in Gamrot, a much quicker athlete with a high-paced wrestling style (attempting 6.4 takedowns per 5 minutes) that is difficult to separate from or win clear minutes against.

While dos Anjos is an excellent grappler and an extremely well-rounded fighter, he has struggled against similarly persistent wrestlers; I wouldn't say I like the matchup for the Brazilian, stylistically or athletically, at this stage of his career.

UFC 299 Props: 5 Juicy Picks and Predictions From MMA Prop Squad Image

Gamrot vs. dos Anjos Pick

I don't show value on the total or any winning method props.

However, I do show an edge on Gamrot's moneyline (projected -499) in a fight heavily juiced to reach a decision. You can consider using Gamrot as a parlay piece up to about -465.

Typically, I want the underdog in a fight likely to reach the scorecards; still, Gamrot's cardio advantage should win him at least two rounds at a very high percentage.

The Pick: Parlay (-125, Risk 0.5u): Mateusz Gamrot (-425) & Benoit Saint Denis (-218)

About the Author
Sean is a Senior Writer at The Action Network and a lawyer in the state of New York. He primarily covers baseball, synthesizing advanced metrics with traditional scouting techniques, and believes that Bartolo Colón's home run was the single greatest athletic achievement of our time.

Follow Sean Zerillo @SeanZerillo on Twitter/X.

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