UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips: How to Bet Big Underdog (Saturday, March 9)

UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips: How to Bet Big Underdog (Saturday, March 9) article feature image
Credit:

Cooper Neill/Getty. Pictured: UFC bantamweight Pedro Munhoz

Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips Odds

Munhoz Odds
+190
Phillips Odds
-230
Over/Under
2.5 (-330 / +240)
Location
Kaseya Center in Miami
Time
8 p.m. ET
TV
ESPNews
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 299 with our DraftKings promo code.

Here's everything you need to know about the Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips odds at UFC 299 – with our expert pick and prediction for Saturday, March 9.

These bantamweights kick off the ESPN-televised prelims, and matchmakers clearly expect lots of action.

Phillips is 5-1 in the UFC with three fight-night bonuses, and he gets one of his toughest assignments yet in the battled-tested Munhoz. The seven-time bonus winner also holds the UFC record for bantamweight appearances while fighting a who's who of 135 pounds.

Tale of the Tape

MunhozPhillips
Record20-811-2
Avg. Fight Time11:0711:11
Height5'6"5'8"
Weight (pounds)135 lbs.135 lbs.
Reach (inches)65"72"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
Date of birth9/7/19866/12/1995
Sig Strikes Per Min5.455.36
SS Accuracy43%46%
SS Absorbed Per Min6.143.36
SS Defense56%61%
Take Down Avg0.52.9
TD Acc19%46%
TD Def82%70%
Submission Avg0.50.6

Munhoz is another fighter on this card (along with Philipe Lins and Marlon Vera) for whom I project moneyline value betting from a pre-fight perspective. However, I anticipate finding a better live price betting after Round 1.

Phillips is nine years younger than Munhoz. He's the bigger (seven-inch reach advantage) and better athlete, and his success is typically frontloaded.

As I regularly mention, where there is at least an eight-year age gap between UFC opponents, the younger fighter wins 13% above expectation (68.6% at average implied odds of 55.6%).

UFC 299: Our Experts' 4 Best Bets for Saturday Night's PPV Image

Still, Phillips relies on mixing his striking and grappling to overwhelm and separate opponents, and Munhoz is highly durable and an excellent counter-grappler (82% takedown defense).

Phillips should be the busier fighter in Round 1, but Munhoz will look to land leg kicks and attritional strikes against him, which could pay dividends in the later rounds.

Additionally, Phillips has shown a tendency to slow down in the third round, regardless of the pace of his fights. I anticipate Munhoz winning the third round much more frequently than he does the opening five minutes.

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Munhoz vs. Phillips Pick

While Munhoz has performed exceptionally well – broadly covering his pricetag and outperforming his record during a 2-5-1 run, all against top-flight competition – he's still 37 years old.

That's five years above the division average, and his level is likely to fall off shortly, even as he takes a step down in competition.

As a result, while I show pre-fight value on the Munhoz side (projected +158) and his odds to win by decision (projected +268), I'm inclined to wait for his moneyline to poke above +200 before jumping in; otherwise, I'll wait for a live entry.

The Pick: Pedro Munhoz Live after Round 1

About the Author
Sean is a Senior Writer at The Action Network and a lawyer in the state of New York. He primarily covers baseball, synthesizing advanced metrics with traditional scouting techniques, and believes that Bartolo Colón's home run was the single greatest athletic achievement of our time.

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