Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong odds at UFC 299 – with our expert pick and prediction for Saturday, March 9.
The UFC 299 main card kicks off with a potential barnburner between two bantamweight mainstays.
However, do we need to wait for the first round before attacking the betting lines?
Tale of the Tape
| Yan | Yadong | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-5 | 21-7-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:50 | 12:47 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 136 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 67" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/11/1993 | 12/2/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.03 | 4.38 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.71 | 0.63 |
| 6TD Acc | 52% | 58% |
| TD Def | 85% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Like Marlon Vera, Yan is a notoriously slow starter, narrowing his margin for error in three-round contests. His style is much more effective, and his price is more justifiable as a favorite in five-round fights instead of three.
Yan is the more technical fighter in this matchup. Still, Yadong is the superior athlete, the more powerful puncher, and – at age 26 – likelier to progress to a higher performance tier.
In contrast, Yan is approaching the wrong side of the age curve for bantamweight.
I'm curious to see if Yan takes a more aggressive approach in this matchup and opens up more in the first round because his slow starts against both Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley cost him dearly (he lost a tight Round 1 on two of three scorecards in both fights), ultimately determining the outcomes.
Yan has never changed his pacing between three- and five-round fights, and it finally cost him a pair of split decisions.
Yan vs. Yadong Pick
I'd happily bet Yan in a five-round fight at this price point. Still, he will have difficulty covering the number in a shorter bout. Song's edges in early output and power throughout the fight give him an extremely high floor.
Moreover, both fighters have excellent cardio and are incredibly durable, and the fight is heavily favored to reach a decision. I also lean toward the Over or the fight to reach a decision (projected -267) and expect a close matchup; that's a difficult number to lay with two bantamweights as dangerous as they are durable.
I would consider betting Yan to -120 (projected -124) pre-fight. Otherwise, I'd wait for a live entry after Round 1.
Alternatively, if Song keeps Round 1 50/50 – and potentially wins it – but his odds blow out near +200, I'd consider betting him live instead of Yan.
Essentially, take plus money on either side after Round 1, so long as Song doesn't lose the round convincingly.
The Pick: Live bet Petr Yan or Song Yadong after Round 1
