Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera odds at UFC 299 – with our expert pick and prediction for Saturday, March 9.
The UFC returns to Kaseya Center in Miami this weekend for a 14-fight card headlined by a bantamweight title matchup with No. 5-ranked UFC contender Marlon "Chito" Vera and current champion "Suga" Sean O'Malley.
The pair initially fought in the UFC 252 co-main event with Vera scoring a first-round TKO via ground and pound after O'Malley sustained a leg injury.
The fighters – and fight fans – have debated whether O'Malley's issue, which also cropped up in his fight against Andre Soukhamthath, is a freak injury or whether Vera created the fight-ending damage.
O'Malley is 5-0-1 since that loss and earned UFC gold with a knockout win over Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292. He'll look to avenge the only defeat of his career on Saturday, but he hasn't seen a fourth round in his professional career.
Vera is 5-2 since defeating the current champion, and he's gained valuable main-event experience – proving that his attritional style is more effective across five rounds than three.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 299 main event of Vera vs. O'Malley and utilize those factors to bet on these bantamweights, who should make their cage walks at approximately 11:55 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV (cost: $79.99).
Tale of the Tape
| O'Malley | Vera | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-1 | 23-8-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:45 | 12:54 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 70" |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Date of birth | 10/24/1994 | 12/2/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.3 | 4.4 |
| SS Accuracy | 61% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.51 | 5.16 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| TD Acc | 42% | 39% |
| TD Def | 62% | 70% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.9 |
O'Malley is the taller and longer fighter, the faster and more technical striker, and he typically offers more output relative to all of his opponents – but especially compared to Vera's early-round pace.
Vera typically cedes the first round to opponents to make reads and find his timing. That makes his margins narrow in three-round fights but less worrisome across five rounds.
Vera lost the significant strike battle in the first round to each of his five opponents after defeating O'Malley. He made an exception in his last fight (three rounds) against Pedro Munhoz, in which Vera finally started more aggressively and secured the first round on all three scorecards.
However, before that, Vera lost the first rounds unanimously in his trio of five-round main event fights against Cory Sandhagen, Dominick Cruz and Rob Font, with a significant strike differential of -70 (40 landed, 110 absorbed). He seemed extremely conscious of his energy management early in those 25-minute bouts.
O'Malley is the far more aggressive and efficient striker and should pull ahead on output and minute-winning against Vera early (+4.5 to -1.2 significant strike margin per minute at distance for their careers).
Suga will spend the first 10 minutes of the fight bouncing punches off Vera's high guard, dancing around the cage, and mixing in kicks to different levels.
Vera will block most of those punches, conserve his energy for the later rounds, and look to land attritional damage with leg kicks – likely targeting the same nerve he found last time.
Still, the early output and optics for the judges should strongly favor O'Malley on the scorecards.
Vera's toughness should keep him in the fight, and his cardio should permit a potential rally down the stretch into the championship rounds. You're almost certainly going to find a better price on Chito's live moneyline – after Rounds 1, 2 or 3 – than you can take pre-fight.
This year, we've successfully backed several main-event underdogs with five-round experience (including Jack Hermansson and Jairzinho Rozenstruik) against favorites with unproven cardio.
While I don't expect the champ to gas out completely, Chito should eventually limit O'Malley's footwork by damaging the legs and find more success with his hands later in the fight. And I expect the minute-winning to become increasingly more competitive – if not outright favor Vera – as we hit the midway point of the third round.
Vera is the more opportunistic finisher but also the much more durable fighter. Even though O'Malley should win the majority of minutes, especially early, Chito can turn the fight on its head with a few big moments.
O'Malley vs. Vera Pick
The first time these fighters squared off, I projected Sean O'Malley as a -178 favorite (64% implied) and bet Vera's moneyline at +225.
I project a similar price on O'Malley for the rematch (-196, 66.2% implied) and again show value on the underdog.
Still, I'm less inclined to bet Vera's moneyline pre-fight; he should continue to conserve his energy early in another five-round bout – and you should hopefully be able to grab something closer to +400 live after the opening frame. Live bet Vera after Rounds 1, 2 and 3 as he starts to step on the gas pedal.
I don't show value concerning the total on this matchup; I expect the fight to reach a decision 56% of the time (-130 implied) – in line with the listed odds.
I show slight value on O'Malley to win by decision (projected +116, listed +125) or Vera to win inside the distance (projected +323, listed +400).
Considering his advantages in durability and cardio, I'll poke Vera's finish prop, play his finish-only moneyline (no-action if decision) at plus money, and live bet Chito anytime after Round 1.
You can also justify small late-round stabs on Chito (Round 4 at +2200 and Round 5 at +2500).
The Picks:
- Marlon Vera – Finish Only Moneyline (+140, 0.25u) at DraftKings
- Marlon Vera Wins Inside the Distance (+400, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Marlon Vera Live anytime after Round 1
