For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC 299 parlay bet to sweat, and I've got two for the Saturday, March 9 pay-per-view event.
In fact, one of the UFC 299 parlays has a 20-1 payout.
UFC 299 takes place tonight at Kaseya Center in Miami with a Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera championship main event. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and then ESPN (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight UFC 299 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
With 14 fights in all, UFC 299 parlay betting options are plentiful for fight night. And I've put together a traditional parlay, as well as a same game parlay (SGP), for the big event.
Let's dig into those parlays for the O'Malley vs. Vera 2 pay-per-view event.
UFC 299 Parlay
One of the best UFC cards in recent memory is upon us, and it’s time to try to cash in on another set of parlays.
As usual, I will choose three spots in which I expect violence to rule the day by parlaying three fighters to win by finish – with juicy odds of more than +2000.
(Heads-up: These "by finish" bets, which are also called "by stoppage" bets, can be found at FanDuel under the "Double Chance" submenu. For example, Assu Almabayev's finish bet is listed as "Almabayev by KO/TKO or Submission." Or simply click on the FanDuel QuickSlip below to have the full parlay wager automatically added to your FanDuel betslip.)
Let’s dive in:
Parlay Leg 1: Assu Almabayev by Finish (-140)
Assu Almabayev is a promising prospect, which means you are likely to see at least a couple of tailor-made matchups for him early on in his career. His UFC 299 opponent, C.J. Vergara, fits into that category. While Vergara should have the cardio edge here, that may be the only advantage he has against Almabayev.
I still have questions about Vergara’s durability, and he tends to leave openings for his opponents on the mat when he is outclassed and is forced to use his defensive grappling. I expect Almabayev to get his sixth finish in his last eight bouts, adding to his current 14-fight winning streak.
Parlay Leg 2: Curtis Blaydes by Finish (+180)
There is no question Curtis Blaydes' UFC 299 fight against Jailton Almeida carries an immense amount of volatility, but that is why we are getting such a good number in this spot. Blaydes has greatly improved his striking during his UFC career, and he will be the much more technical striker of the two men.
Blaydes has the best chance in the heavyweight division of neutralizing Almeida’s offensive wrestling, which means we could see prolonged periods of a striking contest. I would heavily favor Blaydes in this area, especially since we have yet to see a fighter put Almeida through any type of adversity in the UFC by resisting his offensive grappling game plan. If Blaydes can implement his own offensive wrestling, +180 will feel like a tremendous value.
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Parlay Leg 3: Marlon Vera by Finish (+340)
UFC bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley is rightfully favored in the UFC 299 main event, but this line has gotten too wide. Marlon Vera will always be a more dangerous fighter over the course of five rounds as opposed to three, and I am more than happy to take a chance he can put O’Malley in serious danger at some point in the bout.
Whether it be with leg kicks or working in the clinch, Vera can cause damage all the while luring the champion into a firefight as the rounds progress. If he can start to get close to O’Malley, there may even be openings to use his grappling advantage.
At the end of the night, if the fight goes to decision, I expect the champion to retain; but if the finish materializes, Vera should be on the winning end of it at a higher clip than the 22% implied odds indicate.
UFC 299 Parlay: Almabayev, Blaydes & Vera by Finish (+2012 at FanDuel)
UFC 299 Same Game Parlay
Same-game parlays (SGPs) can be a great way to extract maximum value from a fighter's win condition. This week we will be targeting the welterweight matchup between Jack Della Maddalena and Gilbert Burns, which is part of the UFC 299 main card.
Burns has a massive grappling edge in this fight, and he would be making a critical error if he opts not to use it. Burns’ weakness at this point in his career may be his durability, with a secondary concern being his cardio. There is no reason for him to delay in trying to get this fight to the mat.
Della Maddalena has shown he can be taken down and controlled by fighters with less grappling chops than Burns possesses. Thus, I expect Burns to land a round 1 takedown.
If Burns is successful in getting the fight to the mat early and often, I don’t think Della Maddalena will make it to the third round. If JDM cannot stay out of harm's way on the mat, we will know pretty quickly while the fighters are relatively dry in the early going. If Burns has success in Round 1, I expect him to come out in Round 2 and shoot for a takedown rather quickly.
Looking at prices around the DraftKings SGP betting market, Burns winning by submission is paying less than 4-to-1. His submission price in Rounds 1 or 2 is +500. If we specifically add Burns to win by submission only, it would increase the payout of this parlay by only 75 cents on the dollar. If Burns puts Della Maddalena in precarious situations, I want the KO/TKO path on the ground to result in a win for us, as well.
Thus, my UFC 299 same-game parlay is:
- Gilbert Burns – moneyline (3 way)
- Under 9.5 – total minutes
- 1+ Gilbert Burns takedown – Round 1
