It's a huge fight week, and with my early UFC predictions for UFC 299, I'm looking to find some value for Saturday's event.
Which fighters are overvalued heading into Saturday's pay-per-view show? Who' undervalued? That's where my UFC 299 Luck Ratings can be a handy tool.
UFC 299 takes place on Saturday at Kaseya Center in Miami. Prelims are available on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and ESPN (8 p.m. ET) before a main card on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*Odds via DraftKings and as of Monday. Bet on UFC 299 this weekend with our DraftKings promo code!
Sean O'Malley (-285) vs. Marlon Vera (+230)
The UFC 299 main event is a rematch between bantamweight champion "Suga" Sean O'Malley and the only man to beat him in the UFC octagon: Marlon "Chito" Vera.
Since then, O'Malley has gone unbeaten in six straight fights while capturing the UFC bantamweight title in August by beating Aljamain Sterling.
Notice I said "unbeaten" and not "on a six-fight winning streak," of course. O'Malley has a no-contest against fellow UFC 299 competitor Pedro Munhoz due to an eye-poke. O'Malley was losing that fight at the time, but the UFC effectively treated it like a win, elevating him to a contender fight against former champion Petr Yan in his next appearance.
"Suga" took a controversial split decision there, with 24 out of 25 media members scoring the fight for Yan. We can even poke some holes in his title win – a first-round knockout victory – given Sterling's public declaration that he wasn't ready to fight on the date the UFC selected.
"Chito" is 5-1 over his last six fights with his only loss coming via a split decision of his own. Add to that the historical trends that favor the previous winner in rematches, and we've got a strong case for the underdog here. Given Vera's notoriously slow starts, I'll be saving half a unit for the live-betting markets, but he's undervalued prefight as well.
The moneyline is as high as +240 on Vera at ESPNBet.
Verdict: Marlon Vera Undervalued
Kevin Holland (-135) vs. Michael Page (+114)
Michael "Venom" Page – also known as "MVP" – is a major signing for the UFC. One of the few stars left in Bellator before the company's sale/merger with the PFL, Page is an exciting striker with a 21-2 pro record including 12 knockouts and 16 overall finishes. He's been stopped just once as a professional – against Douglas Lima, whom Page beat in a rematch.
Page's other career MMA loss was a split decision, and he also dropped a majority decision to Mike Perry in BKFC, so Page could easily have just one career loss in any combat sport with some judging going the other way. For what it's worth, Page got the nod on most media members' scorecards in that loss as well.
Page now takes on Kevin Holland, who's 12-7 in the UFC. While he's coming off a split-decision loss, Holland is 2-1 overall in split decisions for the promotion.
There are two elements at play here. One is that some "UFC bias" is likely baked into the line. If Page's 17-2 Bellator record had happened in the UFC octagon, he'd be a massive favorite in this spot. While his level of opponent in Bellator was certainly lower overall, this line reflects a much bigger disparity than is fair.
The other is Holland's fight IQ. The easiest path to victory would be for Holland to grapple – just like it was against Stephen Thompson, whom Holland let back to his feet on multiple occasions before suffering a TKO loss.
This line is dropping quickly on Page, so jump in now before it's too late. At the time of this writing, the best odds are +115 at ESPNBet and BetMGM.
Verdict: Michael Page Undervalued
Curtis Blaydes (-115) vs. Jailton Almeida (-105)
While I don't love "MMA Math" as a handicapping tool, it provides some pretty strong hints in this heavyweight tilt. Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida have two UFC opponents in common.
The first is Derrick Lewis, who knocked out Blaydes in brutal fashion back in 2021.
Almeida, though, dominated Lewis across five rounds in November, picking up a 10-8 round on two of the three judges' scorecards. Almeida was able to pick up six takedowns and an insane 21 minutes of control time in that fight. Meanwhile, Blaydes was unable to get the fight to the canvas.
Additionally, Blaydes holds a decision win over Jairzinho Roezenstruik (also in 2021) while Almeida finished "Bigi Boy" in the first round.
While there's a loose argument that Almeida's results were primarily driven by fighting older versions of those fighters, neither was especially old for heavyweight standards, and both came into their fight against "Malhadinho" off a win.
Given the roughly pick'em price, that's enough to push me to the Brazilian, who's yet to meet a UFC opponent he can dominate on the ground.
Head over to Caesars, where Almeida is a slight underdog at +105, for this bet.
Verdict: Jailton Almeida Undervalued
Robelis Despaigne (-345) vs. Josh Parisian (+250)
We have another heavyweight fight at UFC 299 with Olympic bronze medalist in taekwondo Robelis Despaigne making his UFC debut. Taekwondo isn't traditionally considered a great base for MMA, but the hyper-athletic 6-foot-7 (with an 84-inch reach) Despaigne has the physical tools to make it work.
He's a perfect 4-0 in his professional MMA career, which started in 2021. On the other hand, his opponents had a combined pro record of 1-0 at the time of their fights, so there are major questions about the TKD specialist's level of competition.
Parisian wouldn't be in the UFC at any other weight class considering his 2-4 promotional record that includes a split-decision win and fights against almost exclusively bottom-of-the-UFC-barrell opponents. Still, he has 22 pro fights and nearly 15 years of MMA experience including his time as an amateur.
If Parisian can find even a single takedown against Despaigne, this one could be over in a hurry – and the market seems to be hip to that fact. Parisian's moneyline was around +300 throughout the industry just a couple of days ago, but now the best line is +260 at Caesars.
While I'm not convinced it will sink any further, at those odds I'm willing to take a small sprinkle on Parisian to win. If Despaigne is as advertised, it will look like a terrible bet, but I'm willing to roll the dice given the big return coming back.
