Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage Odds
| 10 p.m. ET | |
Here's our Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage pick for UFC 300 on Saturday, April 13 – with our expert prediction.
One of MMA's most hyped prospects returns this weekend when Bo Nickal meets fellow middleweight Cody Brundage in the UFC 300 main-card opener.
UFC officials placed amateur wrestling phenom Nickal, who's been up to a whopping -3000 favorite at some sportsbooks, in this key PPV slot for a reason: They're firmly in the Bo Nickal business.
Business isn't quite as booming for his opponent Brundage, though. The 185-pounder has solid UFC experience and is coming off a big win, but at this point, he's being seen as little more than a stepping stone for a future superstar.
However, does Nickal really deserve to be a 30-1 favorite? Or are the betting markets sleeping on battle-tested Brundage?
Let's get into it with our Nickal vs. Brundage betting pick.
Tale of the Tape
| Nickal | Brundage | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-0 | 10-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 1:22 | 6:11 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/14/1996 | 5/16/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.76 | 1.80 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 0.55 | 2.51 |
| SS Defense | 75% | 43% |
| Take Down Avg | 11.04 | 2.69 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 52% |
| TD Def | 0% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 13.8 | 1.1 |
Cody Brundage will be the best fighter Bo Nickal has faced yet. He has a solid wrestling background, he's got KO power, and he's got legit big-show experience. But he's also got a questionable fight IQ, a deceiving two-fight winning streak, and basically, few ways to win this fight outside of a well-timed counter KO.
Nickal, meanwhile, is a three-time NCAA Division I nation champion who's gone 5-0 in MMA. However, he's yet to register even six total minutes of actual cage time because he's blitzed through his competition with such ease.
Still, Nickal deserves to be every bit the -2000 (95.2%) to -3000 (96.8%) favorite that the UFC 300 odds suggest at the time of this writing.
In fact, Nickal himself said getting him at -2500 odds "is a freakin' steal."
I'm not sure betting $2500 to profit $100 is quite the bonanza that Nickal suggests.
But just keep in mind that – in addition to world-class wrestling – Nickal showed this kind of striking just a year into his pro-MMA run:
Bo Nickal ain’t just a wrestler he’s also got heat in those hands 👊💥#UFC300 | Saturday | LIVE on TNT Sports & discovery+ pic.twitter.com/6isfTYclbW
— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) April 11, 2024
Meanwhile, though he's technically riding a two-fight winning streak, Brundage earned those victories via DQ (illegal strikes from his opponent) and via slam KO while escaping an early choke. It's a low-wattage win streak. But, as the latest victory demonstrated, he can find savvy ways to win.
Nickal will one day meet his match – or at least get a real challenge. But this really isn't it. And honestly? I think the UFC has handled Nickal's career quite aptly and fairly so far. He's clearly a blue-chip prospect who has the type of talent most fighters will never come close to sniffing. But they still need to build him up. And Brundage is a logical next rung on the ladder.
In the meantime, it's going to be hard to invest in Nickal's moneylines, totals or even his fight props without paying a bunch of juice. That's why, at least temporarily, I'm focusing my Nickal investments on stuff outside of the cage.
To explain, allow me to pivot away from the traditional fight breakdown for a bit.
I do think Nickal is the real deal, and I do think he could have an explosive UFC title run. All-time great? I don't know. But short-term? I think he's got superstar potential, and I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is.
Like other collectors, I've purchased a few snazzy Bo Nickal trading cards (I even ripped a 2023 Chronicles Bo Nickal Kaboom card from a random box). I'm also keeping my eye out for memorabilia and other unique Nickal-related items.
For example, I recently hit up MMA OG and longtime broadcaster TJ De Santis with an offer to buy his press credential from the night he called Nickal's pro debut. (TJ happily agreed, but he wouldn't accept any money; he's a terrible negotiator – but a hell of a friend.)
But how about fight-night investments? What about a UFC 300 bet to hold us over?
It's not the most glamorous pick – and it's pretty chalky – but I do think we've got a way to bet Nickal that offers some value on Saturday night.
Nickal vs. Brundage Pick
It might sound funny to say that bettors are undervaluing a -3000 favorite, but I do think that's the case in one aspect.
Brundage was an accomplished high school wrestler who also competed in college at the Division II level. Oddsmakers know that's a far cry from Nickal's credentials, but I think they're still putting too much faith in Brundage's ability to defend and extend this fight.
There's no reason to be tempted by the Over 1.5 or "Fights Starts Round 2" props here, folks. Brundage is too mistake-prone and Nickal is too talented and too relentless to let this bout draw out past one round.
At the time of this writing, multiple sportsbooks (DraftKings, bet365 and BetMGM) are offering -190 odds (65.5%) that Nickal wins in Round 1. I put the fair odds at -300 (75.0%), so we're getting a nice discount.
However, considering we pay just 10 cents more for either fighter to win in Round 1 (-200), I'll pay the extra for that bet instead.
If Brundage has any chance of winning, it's likely with an early countershot or well-timed KO punch in the first round. So our bet that this "Fight Ends in Round 1" covers Brundage's likeliest path to victory too.
The Pick: Nickal vs. Brundage Ends in Round 1 (-200 at DraftKings)
