Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller Odds
Here's our Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller pick for UFC 300 on Saturday, April 13 – with our expert prediction.
Yes, the MMA gods have smiled upon us. They've shown mercy upon us long-suffering fight fans and delivered a rare feel-good moment we've universally desired: Jim F—in' Miller will complete the trifecta and fight at UFC 100, UFC 200 and now UFC 300.
And it's only fitting that Miller – the UFC's all-time leader in fights and wins – will meet another ever-busy OG in Bobby Green.
Together, 40-year-old Miller and 37-year-old Green have registered 103 professional bouts, 36 years of professional experience, and 23 UFC fight-night bonuses. And though this UFC 300 early prelim is unpredictable for countless reasons, I still see some early-week value that's worth a small play on your betting card this weekend.
Read on for my breakdown and betting preview with my Miller vs. Green pick for UFC 300.
Tale of the Tape
| Green | Miller | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 31-15-1 | 37-17 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:16 | 9:41 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 156 lbs. | 155,5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 9/9/1986 | 8/30/1982 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.1 | 3.0 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.20 | 1.58 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 44% |
| TD Def | 74% | 48% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 1.7 |
I blindly went into this breakdown thinking my pick would be Green to win via decision. But as I worked my way through the problem, I kept seeing more and more openings for Miller to pull off an upset as a moderate-sized underdog.
I actually sat cageside for UFC 100 nearly 15 years ago and watched Miller defeat Mac Danzig. The fact Miller is still kicking around – after a decade-long battle with Lyme disease, no less – is impressive. The fact he's on a 5-1 run with four stoppage victories heading into UFC 300? That's remarkable.
But it's also a testament to his evolved style. Miller has always had good jiu-jitsu, but with the addition of some late-career power, he can make opponents equally uncomfortable on their feet. Granted, Miller is often too willing to stand and trade in the pocket, and that could be problematic against Green, who should have a speed, accuracy and creativity edge in the striking exchanges.
Still, Miller's durability has been a hallmark of his career. In 55 career fights, he's been stopped by strikes only twice. He can eat some of Green's power and survive to find openings, but he can't be reckless.
The key is that Miller needs to do some damage to make those striking exchanges worth it.
A few years ago, the combination of Green's striking and Miller's durability would've easily led me to a betting prediction of "Green via decision." But there are a few reasons I'm going with Miller.
For one, I worry about Green's chin after Jalin Turner knocked him out very, very badly – seemingly multiple times –in a fight just four months ago.
TURNER FINISHES GREEN IN ROUND 1 👊 #UFCAUSTINpic.twitter.com/YjeqI2GNSo
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) December 3, 2023
That was Green's third knockout loss in the past two years. Chins don't magically improve. In fact, the bottom often falls out on them precipitously.
Additionally, as my colleague Billy Ward reminded me, Green can be an entertaining fighter – but actually winning the fight? That's usually third on his priority list right behind "having fun" and "doing cool stuff."
Some fighters fight for your betting dollars and pull out all the stops. But other fighters can dance and clown away your money instead. Green's head movement and Philly shell could entertain the crowd – while also simply presenting openings for Miller's low kicks and body shots to do real damage and win rounds.
Finally, Miller is going to be the crowd favorite. He's the feel-good story of UFC 300. If this fight goes to the judges, the crowd will have done everything in its power to motivate Miller, sway the optics, and swing the scorecards in his favor.
Green vs. Miller Pick
Although UFC 300 prop markets opened fairly early for Green vs. Miller, I'm not getting fancy with this Green vs. Miller pick.
At worst, I think the ol' grizzled vet wins this fight about 45% of the time (fair odds of +122). So I'm putting a half unit on Miller's moneyline, which DraftKings has available at the +154 odds (39.3%) at the time of this writing. I'd play it down to +135.
Early in fight week, most sportsbooks had Miller in the +160 to +165 range, so there's been some movement. I don't know if other bettors are seeing what I'm seeing or if they just want a little J.F.M. action on a historic night. (Either way, I get it.)
Keep it small and hope Miller still has some magic left on this big night.
The Pick: Jim Miller (+154 at DraftKings) | Play to +135
