Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan odds at UFC 300 on Saturday, April 13 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Saturday's UFC 300 main card features the No. 1-ranked UFC lightweight contender Charles Oliveira taking on No. 4 Arman Tsarukyan in a title eliminator.
Despite the difference in rankings, Tsarukyan is priced as a sizable -200 favorite (BetMGM) while Oliveira returns at +185 (DraftKings).
These are two of the best 155-pound fighters on the planet, and we are in for a huge title eliminator fight on Saturday.
Here's my Oliveira vs. Tsarukyan preview for UFC 300.
(UFC 300 bettors: The best North Carolina sports betting apps are now live! Sign up for the best bonus offers for tonight.)
Tale of the Tape
| Oliveira | Tsarukyan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 34-9 | 21-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:52 | 12:22 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 156 lbs. | 156 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/17/1989 | 10/11/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.5 | 3.9 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.19 | 1.91 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.32 | 3.40 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 36% |
| TD Def | 55% | 75% |
| Submission Avg | 2.7 | 0.0 |
No matter the outcome, you have to respect Oliveira for taking this fight. He was supposed to face the champion, Islam Makhachev, prior to an eye cut in camp that forced the Brazilian to withdraw from his rematch opportunity.
Time has passed, and with the ever-changing picture of the lightweight division, Oliveira decided it was time to accept a fight against a guy whom many peg as the man who can dethrone Makhachev.
Whenever you handicap a fight, you have to put your bias' aside and look at what each guy brings to the table.
Oliveira is one of my favorite fighters, and I respect the hell out of him for taking this fight, but Tsarukyan is simply the bigger threat. In my opinion, Tsarukyan is the guy with the greatest chance in the division to knock off Makhachev, and that is due to the former's supreme well-roundedness in the octagon.
There is just nothing Tsarukyan can't do. He can strike and hit with starching power.
In his last fight Arman Tsarukyan took Beneil Dariush out in just over a minute of the first round. #UFC300 | Saturday | LIVE on TNT Sports & discovery+ pic.twitter.com/LlYtmvuBfP
— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) April 11, 2024
He can take you down and out-wrestle you for 15 minutes, and he can lock in a submission from anywhere (though we haven't seen him pull one off in the UFC – yet).
Oliveira can do all of those things as well, but when you look at how the fight could go, I don't really see the avenue in which he can win. If this fight stays on the feet, I trust Tsarukyan's chin and power more to withstand the brawl that would ensue.
Tsarukyan has not been finished in almost a decade, which came in his second professional fight. Therefore, Oliveira's best chance is likely to come via submission, but Tsarukyan has never tapped across his 29 professional and amateur fights.
He went the distance against both Makhachev and Mateusz Gamrot, two guys who are dangerous submission threats in themselves. Even during the grappling exchanges that could ensue, Tsarukyan is such a strong wrestler that I think he could keep Oliveira in a tough spot where only a desperation submission could be pulled off.
Oliveira vs. Tsarukyan Pick
When looking at how this fight could end, oddsmakers are expecting a finish here as the "does not go to decision" (DNGTD) prop is nearing -300 across the board. This should not be shocking for an Oliveira fight: He has seen the scorecards just once over his past 20 (!) fights, a stretch that goes back a full decade.
To me, that leaves two pretty clear paths to victories for each guy. Tsarukyan doesn't want to grapple with Oliveira; that's the latter's world.
On the other hand, we could see Tsarukyan's power set down Oliveira down as he does that thing he always does when he just lies on his back and hopes his opponent comes down into a grappling exchange.
I don't think Tsarukyan will take the bait, but even if he does, the guy has not been knocked out or submitted in nearly 10 years.
We've seen Oliveira get knocked out in four of his past eight losses. On the other hand, Tsarukyan has never tapped, which would be Oliveira's clearest path to victory.
Therefore, I think the most probable outcome of this fight between two of the world's best 155-pounders is a statement KO/TKO by Tsarukyan to put him in line to rematch Makhachev.
Betway has the best line for the KO prop – by far. Jump on it sooner rather than later.
The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO (+175 at BetWay)
