Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandar Rakic Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandar Rakic odds at UFC 300 on Saturday, April 13 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
If all goes according to plan, UFC 300 may finally end the years-long instability of the UFC light heavyweight division. Since Jon Jones abdicated his throne in 2020, we've had two champions forfeit the belt due to injury, and a draw for a vacant title.
Both fighters who vacated their titles are in action at UFC 300, with Jamahal Hill in the main event and Jiri Prochazka fighting on the undercard against Alexander Rakic. It seems to be a fairly safe assumption that the winner of Prochazka vs. Rakic will fight the winner of Hill and Alex Pereira later this year – particularly if it's Prochazka.
Rakic has a case as well, given that he's 6-2 in the UFC and his only losses came via controversial split decision and an injury against Jan Blachowicz.
It's an exciting time for the 205-pound division, and these two explosive strikers are looking to punch their ticket at a title shot in UFC 300's featured prelim.
Tale of the Tape
| Prochazka | Rakic | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 29-4-1 | 14-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:15 | 11:23 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 206 lbs. | 206 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/14/1992 | 2/6/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.3 | 4.0 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.17 | 2.30 |
| SS Defense | 40% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.61 | 0.82 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 25% |
| TD Def | 68% | 90% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.2 |
In what seems to be a recurring theme at UFC 300, this is the first fight back for Alexander Rakic following an extended injury-related layoff. He was last seen in May 2022, when he tore his ACL in the third round of his fight against Jan Blachowicz.
While we typically view that type of non-contact injury as a freak occurrence in MMA, Rakic seemed to have damaged his leg by repeatedly having kicks checked by Blachowicz. That could be a factor in this fight; one of the best ways to attack Prochazka is through leg kicks – if Rakic can trust his rebuilt knee.
His rear leg kick has traditionally been one of his best weapons, along with his powerful hands. At 6-foot-4 with a 78-inch reach, he's long even for a 205er. This allows him to work from the outside, pumping his sharp jab and sniping with his right hand and power-side kicks.
He's a less voluminous striker than Prochazka – which could be a detriment on the off chance the judges get involved. However, his solid distance management and defensive fundamentals also mean he absorbs fewer strikes.
I did notice a pretty glaring hole in his striking defense on the tape. "Rocket" tends to overextend his right hand at range, with a baseball throw-style follow-through, leaving his chin and body open to counter-left hooks. Blachowicz took advantage of that, repeatedly ripping the body with counter lefts in the early rounds.
Blachowicz might not be the best comparison for Prochazka's striking style, though. Mostly because there is no comparison.
An extremely unorthodox striker, he holds his hands low while striking with all "eight limbs" from all angles. While his dynamic offense gets the attention, his best attribute is arguably his head movement. Given his reticence to even consider blocking strikes, it's a small miracle he hasn't been hurt at range more than he has.
While Prochazka was stopped by Alex Pereira, the bulk of the damage came while he was looking for a takedown on the champ, not in a pure striking exchange. It was also an early stoppage with Prochazka never losing consciousness, so I don't have any major concerns over his chin.
As I alluded to above, he can be vulnerable to leg kicks, and Pereira significantly limited the dynamic movement he relies on by damaging his calf. Of course, Pereira is probably the best leg kicker in MMA – and Rakic might be hesitant given his recent injury.
Although I don't anticipate grappling being a major factor, I'd give a slight edge in that department to Prochazka. Both fighters mix in about half a takedown per 15 minutes of cage time, but Prochazka is a bit more aggressive with both strikes and submissions on the ground.
Prochazka vs. Rakic Pick
In my Luck Ratings this week, I discussed how much I liked the value on Prochazka based on the injury and ring rust factor for Rakic. As expected, the market caught on to that too – the +114 I took Prochazka at is long gone, and he's on track to be a slight favorite come fight time.
After digging into some tape, I feel even more strongly about the Prochazka pick. Besides the injury factor, there are some stylistic factors that should benefit the Czech in this matchup.
First is Rakic's reliance on his length. Rakic has had a reach edge in six of his eight prior UFC fights while Prochazka has a two-inch advantage here.
While not huge, it's enough that attempts by Rakic to play the "long game" probably won't succeed, instead opening up chances for Prochazka to lean and slip his way out of danger.
Furthermore, Rakic's tendency to drop his rear hand is extremely dangerous against a fighter like Jiri, who could strike at any time from any angle. There's no safe range or distance against him.
Combined with the slight grappling edge I'm giving Prochazka, I'd still take his moneyline at the current best odds of +100. If he flips to a favorite, I'd look to play him inside the distance instead at around +150 instead.
The Pick: Jiri Prochazka (+100 at bet365)
