Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan Odds
Here's our Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan pick for the UFC 300 co-main event on Saturday, April 13
This weekend's pay-per-view co-headliner in Las Vegas features an all-Chinese affair for the strawweight title with champion Zhang Weili vs. challenger Yan Xiaonan.
Zhang, who is widely regarded as one of the best female fighters this sport has ever seen, is fresh off a dominant title defense against Amanda Lemos this past August.
Yan, on the other hand, is riding into this title opportunity off a two-fight winning streak, which includes an impressive first-round knockout of Jessica Andrade back at UFC 288.
Although this would've been the perfect matchup to headline a card over in China, this fight will – at the very least – secure a champion for the emerging Chinese market.
Here's my Weili vs. Xiaonan prediction for this important UFC 300 co-headliner
Tale of the Tape
| Weili | Xiaonan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-3 | 18-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:25 | 14:02 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'5" |
| Weight | 115.0 pounds | 115.0 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 63" | 63" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/13/1989 | 6/16/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.94 | 5.55 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.44 | 3.56 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.29 | 0.86 |
| TD Acc | 42% | 66% |
| TD Def | 66% | 70% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.0 |
Considering that both fighters come from wushu sanda backgrounds, don't be shocked if this fight features steady doses of striking for as long as it lasts.
Yan, who is the more traditional sanda stylist of the two, will manage distance with everything from an underrated jab to spamming sidekicks.
Demonstrating improved boxing, Yan has gotten a lot better at sitting down on her counter shots.
When feeling in stride, she can competently counter in combination and is not afraid to punctuate her presence with kicks.
That said, Yan will need to be mindful when kicking with someone like Zhang given the champion's propensity to counter said attacks with strikes or takedowns.
A sanda stylist who has embraced the art of eight limbs (muay Thai), Zhang has improved greatly at countering and catching kicks.
Although Zhang will still show her sanda roots through her spinning attacks and sidekicks, she tends to separate herself from the pack through her grappling upgrades.
Working with world-class coaches and talents such as the Hickman brothers and Josh Hinger, Zhang has made measurable strides in her wrestling and submission grappling.
Zhang still possesses strong trips and tosses in the clinch, but the Chinese champion can also competently chain takedown attempts in open space like it's second nature.
And when Zhang can ground her opposition, she comes to life with aggressive positional advances and opportunistic submissions to boot.
Despite Yan showing some advancements when it comes to both her takedown and submission defense, she'll likely want to avoid grappling with Zhang at all costs.
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Weili vs. Xiaonan Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the sitting champion, listing Zhang -500 and Yan +350 as of this writing.
Although the betting line above opened a lot closer, gamblers have inflated the price on the favorite – and I don't blame them.
Considering the level of competitive matchups that this historic fight card is offering, it would appear that Zhang is one of the more popular parlay pieces heading into the weekend.
However, if you're like me and are not a fan of playing parlays or heavily chalked numbers, then I suggest shopping the prop market for "inside the distance" options on Zhang if you still want action on the favorite. (Depending on the sportsbook, "inside the distance" props may also be labeled as "by finish" or "by KO, submission or DQ.")
Yan may have been able to survive Mackenzie Dern's submission attempts, but the Brazilian standout doesn't hold a candle to the ground striking, aggression and wrestling that Zhang wields in spades.
The Under 3.5 rounds at plus money (+120 at BetRivers) could work as an added bonus or potential hedge given that it covers an early Yan finish, or you could simply place a fun flier on Yan to win by knockout in Round 1 (+4000 at DraftKings) given the value.
That said, I believe that the power and ground game of "Magnum" will be too much for Yan, so I'll be banking on Zhang to find a finish on the floor by the end of Round 3.
For my official play, I'm taking Zhang to win inside the distance. Betway has the best-available odds at the time of this writing at +105, and we'll play it down to -120.
The Pick: Zhang Weili by Finish (+105 at Betway)
