Check out our UFC predictions for UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill on Saturday, April 13, with our Luck Ratings for the historic fight card.
After many months of build-up, it's finally here: UFC 300, with three (kinda) title fights and a stacked card featuring 12 current or former champions.
Unlike most UFC events, betting lines have been up for the entire UFC 300 fight card for quite some time, so we're less likely to catch significant line movement between now and Saturday night. Still, there are some spots to target where the market is missing key information.
UFC 300 takes place this Saturday, April 13, with preliminary card fights on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and ESPN (8 p.m. ET), and then ESPN+ pay-per-view for the five-fight main card (10 p.m. ET).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*UFC odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 300 with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Predictions & Luck Ratings
Champion Alex Pereira (-125) vs. Jamahal Hill (+105)
The UFC 300 main event features a light heavyweight title fighter between current champion (and former middleweight champ) Alex Pereira and former champ Jamahal Hill. Hill never lost the light heavyweight gold, but relinquished it due to a torn Achilles suffered this past July in a UFC-sponsored basketball game during International Fight Week.
This was one of the last bouts booked for UFC 300. The UFC scrambled to find an appropriate main event for this blockbuster card. That leads me to believe that Hill might not have been confident he was ready to return from injury so soon, and he may have agreed to the bout under duress.
With that said, we don't have much data on how a torn Achilles impacts combat-sports athletes. It's typically seen in football and basketball players, with a considerably longer recovery time than the nine or so months Hill has taken (Aaron Rodgers notwithstanding). With that said, Hill doesn't need to sprint at full speed or jump high to be an effective MMA fighter.
Still, I can't help but think the recent line movement toward Hill is discounting the possibility that he's hindered by the injury. This line feels roughly appropriate for a full-strength match between the two strikers, and Hill relies on his explosiveness and footwork heavily in the standup.
For that reason, I believe "Poatan" is slightly undervalued here. However much you downgrade Hill for the injury – if any – being the key factor. No need to rush on the bet, though, since money seems to be coming in on "Sweet Dreams" and we could potentially find out more about how his recovery has gone throughout the week.
Verdict: Alex Pereira Slightly Undervalued
Justin Gaethje (-175) vs. Max Holloway (+145)
In a strange twist, Justin Gaethje is actually defending the entirely fictional "BMF" ("Baddest Motherf—er") belt at UFC 300 in what should nonetheless be an exciting fight against Max Holloway.
The 35-year-old Gaethje is fresh off of consecutive reminders that he's not done yet, first taking a majority decision over the surging Rafael Fiziev and then leveling Dustin Poirier with a head kick to win the inexplicably vacant BMF belt last July. Gaethje is 7-2 since 2018 with his only losses coming in fights for the UFC lightweight title.
Those defeats both came via submission to elite grapplers, and now he's fighting fellow striker Max Holloway. Holloway has a similar resume to Gaethje, just a weight class down. He's undefeated since 2013 (!) in all non-title fights.
However, weight classes exist for a reason, a point we've seen proven by Alexander Volkanovski, Kamaru Usman and others recently. Which makes the line movement toward Holloway a bit misguided here. Gaethje was a roughly -225 favorite as recently as last week.
Given the movement against him, I like the value on Gaethje here. But I'm willing to get a bit greedy and see if we can get an even better price in a day or two.
Verdict: Justin Gaethje Undervalued
Alexander Rakic (-122) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+102)
The story of UFC 300 is fighters making their return from injury. We have another one of those in Aleksandar Rakic, who's been out for nearly two years following a leg injury in his fight against Jan Blachowicz.
That fight was almost certainly tied at one round each heading into the third round when the injury happened. Prior to that, his only career losses were a split decision to Volkan Oezdemir that fans and media predominantly had scored for "Rocket."
Still, ring rust and the potential loss of explosion could be problematic here. We've seen fighters suffer similar injuries and never fully recover their old form, which is certainly a concern here, particularly in a heavier weight class.
Prochazka is now one fight removed from his own return from injury. He suffered a shoulder injury in training, and then he was knocked out when he returned against Alex Pereira in a title fight this past November. While I don't love the somewhat-quick return form the knockout, it's reasonable to think his shoulder is closer to 100% this time around.
He also had owned the first round against Pereira before being knocked out, which is a strong sign that he's close to full strength. I'll take another underdog based on fading the injured fighter here.
Based on the early line movement, he won't be an underdog for long, so jump on this one as soon as possible. Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM have the best line at +105.
Verdict: Jiri Prochazka Undervalued
Aljamain Sterling (-180) vs. Calvin Kattar (+150)
We have an interesting confluence of the two factors mentioned above meeting in this fight.
Former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling is making his featherweight debut at UFC 300, up a weight class against Calvin Kattar, who's making his return from a significant injury.
Of course, we need to qualify both statements a bit. Sterling was an absolutely massive bantamweight whose move to featherweight felt inevitable. I'd wager a significant amount that he walks around heavier than Max Holloway when not preparing for a fight.
On the other side, Kattar's knee injury was nearly 18 months ago, so he's had twice the recovery time for an arguably less significant injury than Hill suffered.
Still, Kattar had dropped two out of three fights even before the injury, and at 36, he might have a harder time recovering than the younger Hill. I also expect Sterling to be better without suffering through the massive weight cut to 135, despite my general hesitance about fighters changing weight class.
Because of those factors, I like Sterling at the odds on Saturday. They seem to be dropping quickly, so grab the FanDuel line (-160) now while it's still available.
