Check out our UFC 300 prop bets with our top long-shot props with oversized odds for Saturday's landmark event.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of juicy picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have posted +31.5 units and an 8.7% ROI per bet over the past two years, including +23.4 units and a 36.6% ROI in 2024 alone.
The Squad is back for UFC 300, one of the deepest fight cards of the year, and we're ready to cash some more prop picks for MMA's big night.
UFC 300 takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and then ESPN (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight UFC 300 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
Our UFC prop experts have six picks for the card, including a juicy +1200 KO play. Check them out below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
*UFC 300 odds for matchups as of Saturday evening and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC 300 props with our FanDuel promo code.
Dan Tom: Jim Miller by KO (+525)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a UFC 300 preliminary-card bout between Jim Miller (+150) and Bobby Green (-178).
Despite admittedly disliking this fight for Miller every time the UFC has tried to book it over the last 10 years, I find myself feeling differently this time around.
Miller may be a 40-year-old lightweight with Lyme disease, but Green isn't exactly too far behind the New Jersey native when it comes to both age and mileage.
Moreover, Miller has successfully adjusted his game to "getting old" while Green's style – which is heavily reliant on speed and reaction times – is currently experiencing some growing pains.
Not only did Green sustain one of the most devastating stoppages by strikes that I've seen in this sport, but the 37-year-old veteran has elected to make a fast, 131-day turnaround from said loss to Jailin Turner last December.
And once you subtract Green's mandatory 90-day suspension from the equation, it is hard to see how "King" was able to fit in the proper preparation and recuperation.
Add in the fact that Green currently stands at 4-7 opposite UFC-level southpaws, and I suspect that Miller's southpaw counters will be quietly live on Saturday.
The Pick: Jim Miller by KO (+525 at ESPN BET)
Billy Ward: Renato Moicano Round 3 or Decision (+410)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
Every time I watch Jalin Turner fight, I have the same thought: How in the world does this guy make 155 pounds?
Sure, there have been other lightweights who match his 6-foot-3 frame, and at least one – the late Corey Hill – who exceeded it. But those fighters are typically beanpoles with scrawny legs and slight frames.
Jalin Turner (-235) on the other hand, is a big, big boy. He packs plenty of muscle on his long limbs, making him one of the most powerful and explosive lightweights the UFC has ever seen, as Renato Moicano (+194) will experience tonight.
All that explosion comes at a cost, though. “The Tarantula” has finished all 14 of his professional wins, but he's never won a fight that started the third round. I’m not sure if it’s due to his sheer size – those muscles need oxygen – or what has to be a horrendous weight cut, but Turner has, at best, 10 good minutes in him.
Which is where this bet on Moicano comes in. A dynamic striker with elite submissions, "Money Moicano" is also known as a quick finisher. However, he’s also looked strong down the stretch in past fights.
In his five-round decision loss to Rafael dos Anjos, the only round Moicano won was the fifth. His last fight was against a similarly explosive striker in Drew Dober, and Moicano took the final frame there too.
Moicano has the technical striking ability to potentially survive the storm, with improved wrestling that gives him a way to burn clock if things get too dicey on the feet.
Given the dynamics of the fight, this prop should be priced much closer to his roughly +200 moneyline, making it a strong value. Another option is to explore the live markets if Turner has a fast start since Moicano’s live line could climb into a similar range.
The Pick: Renato Moicano Round 3 or Decision (+410 at FanDuel)
Bryan Fonseca: Holly Holm by KO (+1200)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
It feels stupid to pick a smaller 42-year-old in Holly Holm (+340) to knock out a former lightweight champion turned bantamweight in Kayla Harrison (-430) – but I think this is an absolutely-worth-it sprinkle.
Harrison hasn't previously fought below the 145-pound limit of featherweight, and she isn't stepping in there against just anyone. This is one of the five or so best bantamweights in the UFC who is playing the role of gatekeeper in hopes of one last title shot.
For me, this long shot is pretty simple: If Harrison is weight-drained after such a big cut, she's in severe danger of being stopped by a live 'dog in Holm, who is even +360 on the moneyline as of this writing.
Harrison made weight, but as I mentioned in my Holm vs. Harrison preview, I still have doubts. She's never fought at 135 pounds as a pro, meaning she hasn't rehydrated from that weight either. So this is betting on a potential mess of a situation.
Even as Holm hasn't stopped anyone in almost seven years, she hasn't been in this unique of a position as an underdog either since, well, you know.
The Pick: Holly Holm by KO (+1200 at BetRivers)
Clint MacLean: Calvin Kattar by KO (+500)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
Aljamain Sterling had a rough run as UFC bantamweight titleholder, and the former champ is coming off a pretty bad KO loss to "Suga" Sean O'Malley.
After losing the title, Sterling (-166) is moving up 10 pounds and attempting to find new life in a division where he will lose the size advantage that helped him win the title at 135 pounds.
Calvin Kattar (+140) might be coming off an injury layoff, but he has a 90% takedown defense rate over his UFC career and is known for his heavy volume on the feet and insane pace.
I don't know that Sterling's game is going to translate up a weight class against bigger opponents – and especially against one who is such a good counter grappler. I expect this fight to look a lot like the last one for Sterling.
Give me Kattar to find the chin of Sterling as the fight goes late and Aljo slows down.
The Pick: Calvin Kattar by KO (+500 at FanDuel)
John LanFranca: Max Holloway by KO (+650)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
It truly feels like Justin Gaethje (-162) and Max Holloway (+136) are both motivated to steal the show at UFC 300 for the "Baddest Motherf—er" title to further cement their already UFC Hall of Fame legacies. It is wild to consider Gaethje has a price of +163 to win by KO/TKO/DQ (BetRivers) as opposed to +650 for Holloway.
If the question is simply which fighter is more likely to be rocked by a strike in this fight, the answer is Gaethje. Holloway’s chin is legendary, and it’s hard to imagine him getting put away by a knockout of any manner.
This is not the normal play on a knockout in which you feel your fighter is live to land a fight-ending strike in the early going when he is fresh. Rather, this is a play on Holloway, who’s clearly big enough for the lightweight division, to continually rack up damage on Gaethje throughout their potential five-round firefight.
We've seen accumulation of damage be the demise of Gaethje before in the UFC, and this price is simply too good to pass up on it possibly happening once more.
If the fight extends into the championship rounds, I trust Holloway to be the crisper striker at that point. If he gains the confidence that he can withstand Gaethje’s best shots, Holloway can and will pull away in the later rounds en route to a decision victory or a late stoppage.
At +650, I will gladly take my chances, as Holloway by decision is priced down at +255.
The Pick: Max Holloway by KO (+650 at FanDuel)
Dann Stupp: Zhang Weili by Submission (+500)
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
I was initially kind of on the fence about this pick until my colleague Sean Zerillo also mentioned he liked the play in his full UFC 300 betting preview.
In Saturday's UFC 300 co-main event, UFC strawweight champion Zhang Weili is a heavy favorite when she meets challenger Yan Xiaonan in the all-Chinese affair.
I think Weili's moneyline odds (-550), which suggests she wins 84.6% of the time against Xiaonan (+410), are right about where they should be.
However, with a few outlier lines on the champ to finish by submission (+500), I think we've got some value in a bet that's worth playing.
Zhang isn't a grappling-first fighter, but she's a strong wrestler with evolving skills, and she has the strength and size to control action on the mat. The fact Xiaonan has shown some poor takedown defense as well as a questionable fight IQ on the canvas only helps our betting angle for this long-shot prop.
While I think ground and pound is the most likely path to victory for Zhang, getting 5-1 odds on the submission is too hard to pass up. The champ could absolutely snatch a limb or neck as Xiaonan is forced to work her way back to her feet, especially since she has up to five full rounds to work.
The Pick: Zhang Weili by Submission (+500 at Betway)
Tony Sartori: Jamahal Hill by Round 2-4 KO (+460)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC 300 main event features a light heavyweight title bout as champion Alex Pereira (-142) defends the strap against challenger Jamahal Hill (+120). In a way, this is an unofficial title-unification bout as Hill had to vacate the belt due to injury.
I'm almost hedging against my happiness here as "Poatan" is one of my favorite fighters in the UFC, but I think there is just way too much value in this Hill KO prop to pass up. Both fighters' resumes are strong, but I think Hill is being overlooked in this spot due to the fan-favorite nature of Pereira entering this fight.
Hill has lost just once in his entire professional career, and he utterly dominated Glover Teixeira in Brazil when he claimed the light heavyweight title. While that was a decision victory, six of Hill's past eight wins have come by knockout as he carries an absurd amount of power.
The reason that scares me from Pereira's perspective is that he got slept by Israel Adesanya at 185 pounds. It wasn't even like it was a ground-and-pound technical knockout; Pereira literally got starched by someone who does not carry nearly the same amount of power as he will see from Hill.
Yes, Pereira carries at least the same amount of the power, but Hill's chin has proven to not be an issue; he has never been finished like that. The style matchup of this fight seems pretty straightforward: We are likely to see a stand-and-bang instant classic with one of these guys succumbing to the power of the other.
That is why the Under 4.5 rounds prop is currently listed at -385 while the "Over 1.5 Rounds" prop is at -175. Whenever you have a matchup with this much violent power, the first round is almost always a feeling-out process as the fighters try to find their range while respecting each other's power.
This specific prop is a way to back Hill to win by KO/TKO at a higher price than +200, as it's the most likely fight to end in the middle three rounds based on the odds and the aforementioned thinking of a feel-out process in the opening frame. But, as much as a I hate to say it because of how much I like Pereira as a fan, I trust Hill's chin more in a fight that is likely to see a violent finish.
The Pick: Jamahal Hill by KO in Rounds 2, 3 or 4 (+460 at FanDuel)
