Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo odds at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4.
The co-main event for Saturday's UFC 301 pay-per-view features a potential banger at bantamweight between Jonathan Martinez and Jose Aldo.
A living legend in the sport of MMA for Brazil and beyond, Aldo's name carries an incredible amount of respect due to a resume full of title defenses and dominant destructions.
Aldo has been out of the octagon since August 2022 due to a self-imposed retirement, but the UFC Hall of Famer has stayed active with boxing bouts outside of the UFC in said time.
Martinez, on the other hand, is an unheralded talent from Factory X who has quietly been climbing the rankings at 135 pounds.
Here's my breakdown for the fight, as well as my Martinez vs. Aldo pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Martinez | Aldo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-4 | 31-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:03 | 14:12 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 136 lbs. | 136 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 70" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/20/1994 | 9/9/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.64 | 3/57 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.76 | 3.74 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 54% |
| TD Def | 69% | 91% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Both parties primarily prefer to sort things out on the feet, so don't be shocked if we get a muay Thai maelstrom on Saturday night.
A master of the art of eight limbs, Aldo has long been known for his ability to light up his opposition with everything from leg kicks to flying knees.
Aldo may have been focused more on boxing in the latter stages of his career, but the Nova Uniao product has demonstrated a more aggressive kicking game when posed with an open stance matchup.
Whether he's changing his level to throw his rear hand or is looking to intercept with a lifting knee, Aldo appears to target the body with much more intent when striking with a southpaw.
That said, bodywork, particularly in that stance pairing, has proven to be a potent two-way street for the former featherweight champion.
Enter Martinez.
A devastating southpaw kicker who attacks at all levels, Martinez's dedicated kicking game harkens back to the days of a prime Mirko Cro Cop.
Akin to the legendary Croatian, Martinez is also a fighter who likes to play all the way in or all the way out in order to dictate range.
Martinez has yet to show the same potency in the pocket when it comes to his boxing, but he arguably makes up for it with his hard wiring to parlay his long guard into clinching opportunities.
Not only does Martinez offer up dangerous knees in close, but "The Dragon" has also displayed improved wrestling that allows him to both defend and dictate action along the fence.
I don't see Martinez breaking past Aldo's vaunted takedown defense, per se, but the Brazilian veteran will need to display more urgency than he did his last outing should he get stuck along the side of the cage again.
Martinez vs. Aldo Pick
The oddsmakers are slightly favoring the younger man, listing Martinez -138 and Aldo +110 as of this writing.
Despite being a longtime Aldo supporter, I can't say that I disagree with the betting spread above.
Some may still be scratching their heads as to why Martinez is getting the respect he does. However, those who have been paying attention know that Martinez is a criminally underrated fighter who has been historically undervalued by oddsmakers and pundits alike.
Perhaps this is a spot to cash in on some slight overcorrection, but I find myself more attracted to a total than a side.
I don't blame anyone for taking a stab at Aldo at plus money given that this is a three-round affair.
Not only can Aldo use his skills and experience to edge out a win on the scorecards, but the Brazilian legend will have an undeniable edge in boxing range and is live for the knockout in this spot.
That said, Martinez has quietly made some improvements to both his boxing and his footwork, which, in turn, allows his game to breathe better when it comes to maneuvering and creating space for offense.
Aldo may be the best defender of leg kicks that this sport has seen, but the former WEC champion has shown a surprising susceptibility to body strikes in this stance pairing – so I caution anyone who is forgetting about Martinez's body kick.
In fact, I'll be officially picking and playing Martinez to score a somewhat surprising stoppage by strikes in either Round 2 or round Round 3 due to the problems that I see his brand of striking presenting.
Even though I could see a reality where Martinez replicates his win over Said Nurmagomedov by neutralizing Aldo in the clinch, I believe that the big cage and the crowd will encourage both competitors to figure things out on their feet.
I understand this fight being favored to see the final bell, but plus money in the neighborhood of 2-1 odds is just too much for me to pass up on for an action fight like this.
The Pick: Aldo vs. Martinez – Under 2.5 Rounds (+200 via Betway)
