Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Iasmin Lucindo Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Iasmin Lucindo odds at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Saturday's UFC 301 preliminary card includes a record-breaking fight: 22-year-old Iasmin Lucindo takes on 38-year-old Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and it represents the largest age gap between female opponents in UFC history.
Lucindo is a heavy favorite as she looks to knock off a former title challenger who has nearly a decade of experience in the UFC octagon.
While handicapping this fight must take into account a lot of wild cards, I arrived at my Kowalkiewicz vs. Lucindo bet rather easily once I dug in the particulars.
Tale of the Tape
| Kowalkiewicz | Lucindo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-7 | 15-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:02 | 12:54 |
| Height | 5'3" | 5'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 116 lbs. | 116 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 64" | 66" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/15/1985 | 1/8/2002 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.92 | 3.33 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 39% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.55 | 3.23 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 67% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.36 | 2.33 |
| TD Acc | 26% | 66% |
| TD Def | 74% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.4 |
As I handicapped Kowalkiewicz vs. Lucindo, I kept coming back to the same bet: Lucindo via decision.
My snap handicap of the fight? For Kowalkiewicz to win this fight, she likely needs to do it on the feet, and I don't see that happening against the hard-hitting Lucindo.
I think "Lucindo by Decision" offers tremendous value, especially considering:
- Trends: As my colleague Sean Zerillo often reminds us, when there is at least a decade age gap between UFC combatants, the younger fighter has won 70% of the time – 12% above expectation based on the average odds. Essentially, when we've got a gap of 10-plus years, we could've blind bet every matchup and come out well ahead. The betting market just puts too much faith in the vets.
- Expected Value: My back-of-the-envelope math for this fight says Lucindo wins this fight 80% (-400) of the time, including 60% by decision (-150) and 20% by stoppage (+400). For Kowalkiewicz, I think she wins 20% of the time (+400), including 17% of the time by decision (+488) and 3% by stoppage (+3233). Only one of those bets theoretically holds value: Lucindo by decision, which pays +125 at bet365 and Hard Rock.
- Public betting: As Zerillo does, I also checked Tapology to see how the general public is handicapping the fight. At the time of this writing, 57% (-132) of the nearly 3,000 voters predicted a Lucindo win by decision. Because the bet pays +125, we're getting a lot of value whether we use my handicapping (-150) or Tapology's (generally sharp) pickers (-132).
- Intangibles: This is the biggest fight of Lucindo's career, and a win could catapult her into the rankings, where Kowalkiewicz's resurgent four-fight winning streak has her sitting in the No. 13 spot. I expect Lucindo to fight an aggressive but measured fight. Kowalkiewicz, meanwhile, has given no hints of retirement and instead wants her first title shot since a failed 2016 bid for the belt. I think Kowalkiewicz's lack of speed and reach will cost her, but I think she'll keep it close enough to get to the scorecards.
Rarely do all four dynamics line up on the same bet. And rarely do I feel such confidence for a bet in a fight that otherwise seems lined pretty accurately at the sportsbooks.
I'm a big Karolina Kowalkiewicz fan. She's got a classy confidence akin to another WMMA notable I always liked: Marloes Coenen. But like other retired or soon-to-retire vets, Kowalkiewicz is facing a new generation of fighters who are often simply bigger, faster and – thanks to their age – healthier and better-conditioned for the rigors of the UFC octagon.
I think we could see those dynamics play out on Saturday night.
Kowalkiewicz vs. Lucindo Pick
You can find Iasmin Lucindo to win by decision at plus money at nearly every major sportsbook. But as usual, be sure to shop around.
Betfred (+115), for example, is a great site for UFC betting, and they've got better-than-average odds for the bet.
But you can get even better odds (+125) at bet365, as well as the smaller Hard Rock.
I'd take Lucindo by decision down to -120, which provides plenty of implied value. But be sure to shop around to get the plus-money that's widely available at the time of this writing.
The Pick: Iasmin Lucindo by decision (+125 at bet365 or Hard Rock)
