For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC 301 parlay bet or two to sweat.
UFC 301 takes place on Saturday at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and then ESPN (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight UFC 301 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
Tonight the UFC returns to Brazil, featuring many homeland fighters, which will undoubtedly bring plenty of violence.
As always, I have identified three spots in which the judges will be rendered unnecessary. Parlaying all three together will pay more than 4-to-1.
Let's dig into my UFC parlays for Saturday.
(UFC 301 odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 301 with our DraftKings promo code!)
UFC 301 Parlay
Parlay Leg 1: Mauricio Ruffy by Finish (-125)
Every one of Mauricio Ruffy’s professional MMA fights has ended by knockout. Ruffy (-218) has been on the winning end of those results at a 90% clip in his career, and he’s seen the third round only once during that time. His opponent, Jamie Mullarkey (+185), is a well-rounded martial artist, but he has clear durability concerns that will not bode well for him against a dangerous striker like Ruffy. Mullarkey has been knocked out twice within the last 12 months, and without the perfect wrestling-based game plan here, he will simply be in harm's way too often on Saturday.
Parlay Leg 2: Joanderson Brito by Finish (+110)
Joanderson Brito is another extremely dangerous fighter who possesses finishing ability for the entire 15 minutes he is in the cage. Brito hasn’t seen the scorecards in more than two years, and he's finished four consecutive opponents within two rounds. Brito (-185) has also fought a much higher level of competition than has the man across the cage from him, Jack Shore (+154). Shore has finished only one opponent since the summer of 2020, yet oddsmakers have set implied odds of this fight finishing inside the distance at 65.5%. Behind a raucous crowd, I expect Brito to win in spectacular fashion once again.
Parlay Leg 3: Michel Pereira by finish (-280)
The sky's the limit for the talented Michel Pereira. It is a scary task for any middleweight to step into the cage with Pereira at this stage of his career. During his seven-fight winning streak, Pereira (-575) has displayed explosive power that he seems to be even more refined each time he steps into the octagon. He will make quick work of Ihor Potieria (+425), who Potieria lacks the durability to stand with somebody as dangerous as Periera. Potieria’s two victories in the UFC have come against a 40-year-old Shogun Rua and a fighter who has never won a bout in the organization. Expect another highlight-reel finish over Potieria, who’s been knocked out three times within the last two years.
UFC 301 All-Violence Parlay:
- Ruffy to win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission (-125)
- Brito to win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission (+110)
- Pereira to win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission (-280)
UFC 301 Parlay: +413 (DraftKings)
UFC 301 Same Game Parlay
Same-game parlays in the UFC can create maximum value for bettors if they can correctly identify the path to victory for a fighter. In the UFC 301 co-main event, Jonathan Martinez (-142) will welcome back Brazilian UFC legend Jose Aldo (+120). If Aldo can outstrike the slick Martinez, the payout on the underdog Aldo nearly triples using the same-game parlay below.
In each of Martinez’s fights, his ability to attack the legs of his opponents with kicks has been an extremely effective weapon. However, when his opponents have been able to get inside the pocket, opting to avoid kicking range entirely, Martinez has been susceptible to damage. Throughout his career, Jose Aldo has been nearly impossible to kick, and if he can check leg kicks consistently while entering the pocket, it should lead to Aldo winning the exchanges on the inside.
If Aldo does take this more aggressive approach, I could see him getting off to a fast start. Aldo landed 25 or more significant strikes in Round 1 of both his standup fights against Rob Font and Pedro Munhoz, two of his more recent opponents who had no interest in getting the fight to the mat. Thus, I will play Aldo to reach 25+ significant strikes landed in Round 1.
If Aldo is able to implement this game plan and get off to a fast start, that likely means he is racking up the strikes to the body as well. In total, I would expect him to reach 65+ significant strikes landed for the bout's entirety.
All of these factors lead me to a play on the underdog Aldo in his home country, motivated to return to put on a show. Playing him in this manner correlates with the UFC Hall of Famer getting his hand raised, and it is my main play for this particle angle. However, as a bonus, I will also sprinkle an additional 0.1 unit on Under 14.5 minutes, which would increase the payout substantially.
Thus, my UFC 301 same-game parlay is:
- Jose Aldo moneyline (3way)
- Aldo 65+ significant strikes
- Aldo 25+ significant strikes – Round 1
