Check out our early UFC predictions for UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg this Saturday, May 4, with our Luck Ratings.
UFC 301 takes place at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and marks the UFC's return to pay-per-view. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and ESPN2 (8 p.m. ET), the UFC 301 main card is available on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
*UFC 301 odds as of Monday and via Caesars. Bet on UFC 301 with our Caesars Sportsbook promo code.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or in which one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 301 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Alexandre Pantoja (-190) vs. Steve Erceg (+160)
It's a bit early to declare the flyweight division "cleaned out" but we're getting close. Champion Alexandre Pantoja has multiple wins over former champ Brandon Moreno and multiple-time challenger Brandon Royval, leaving a lack of title-ready contenders on the horizon.
There's a crop of promising young flyweights coming up, but they typically would need a fight or two before being granted a title opportunity. That list includes Steve Erceg, who's just 3-0 in the UFC.
It's been an impressive run, culminating in a second-round knockout win No. 11-ranked contender Matt Schnell back in March.
However, "Astro Boy" has yet to be challenged by a grappler of Erceg's caliber, nor has he spent any time in the championship rounds. He's also working with an abbreviated training camp with his last fight just two months before this opportunity.
Erceg has a bright future in the division, but this feels like too much too soon.
The best line on Pantoja as of this writing is -190 at Caesars, but there's no need to rush. The line has been moving toward Erceg since opening, so we can hopefully catch a better price on Pantoja later in the week.
Verdict: Alexandre Pantoja Undervalued
Jonathan Martinez (-160) vs. Jose Aldo (+135)
The UFC 301 co-main event features the legendary Jose Aldo, who's back from a brief "retirement" in which he fought three boxing matches. The timing of Aldo's return lines up a bit suspiciously with the UFC's separation from drug testing partner USADA, but we wouldn't want to speculate about any possible connection.
Either way, he's making his return on home soil against Jonathan Martinez, who's riding a six-fight winning streak dating back to 2021. Martinez has been extremely impressive with a pair of finishes via leg kicks and an upset of Said Nurmagomedov, among other highlights.
Martinez is also seven years younger – and with way fewer "fight miles" on the odometer than Aldo. Coupled with the long MMA layoff for Aldo, it's a pretty bad sign for the Brazilian.
Jump on Martinez now, with the best line of -160 at Caesars at the time of this writing. This one opened close to a pick'em, and it could close with Martinez in the neighborhood of -200.
Verdict: Jonathan Martinez Undervalued
Jean Silva (-175) vs. William Gomis (+145)
(Editor's note: This fight was canceled on Friday after William Gomis' obvious illness.)
While I wish I had gotten to this one quicker, there's still some value to be found. Jean Silva has seen his moneyline drop from -135 or so over the weekend to -170 or more depending on the book on Monday.
Both he and William Gomis are undefeated in the UFC, with Gomis having three wins to Silva's one (plus one on the Contender Series.)
However, Silva finished his lone UFC fight. Gomis finished his recent appearance, but his first two victories were via split and majority decision.
Gomis is unlikely to get a close decision with the judging in Brazil, and his 3-0 UFC record is certainly lucky to be unblemished so far. Grab Silva at -165 on BetMGM before the line moves any more.
Verdict: Jean Silva Undervalued
Mauricio Ruffy (-170) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+143)
Another fight that's seen significant line movement is the lightweight prelim bout between Jamie Mullarkey and Mauricio Ruffy. Mullarkey is 5-5 in the UFC with three losses via knockout, including one in December of 2023.
Ruffy is making his UFC debut with a 9-1 professional record – with all nine wins coming via knockout.
That's a bad sign for Mullarkey, whose chin is becoming increasingly questionable with each fight. Mullarkey opened as a slight favorite here, but the line rapidly moved against him.
While I'd still take Ruffy at his current price – and could almost certainly generate some CLV by doing so – my guess is the bulk of the value is gone.
My preferred option is to wait for the prop markets to open up, and hopefully we'll get a better price on Ruffy to pick up yet another knockout victory.
