Check out our UFC prop picks for tonight's UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg event with our favorite long-shot UFC bets.
The MMA Prop Squad is fired up for tonight's UFC return to Brazil. UFC 301 takes place at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro with prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and ESPN (8 p.m. ET) and a main card on ESPN+ PPV (10 p.m. ET).
We've scoured the fight card for some juicy props tonight, and we like what we found.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +38.0 units and a +10.2% ROI per bet to date, including +29.9 units and a 39.9% ROI in 2024.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
(Bet on UFC 301 with our FanDuel promo code tonight!)
UFC 301 Props – Picks & Bets
John LanFranca: Ismael Bonfim by Round 2-3 KO (+360)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
Vinc Pichel has been ultra-durable throughout his career, but that is the exact reason why we are getting a nice price in this spot fading a 41-year-old fighter coming off a two-year layoff. Ismael Bonfim is coming off of a layoff as well, but as the younger fighter by 13 years, his time away from the cage should benefit him greatly.
Bonfim had to learn a hard lesson in his last loss that he simply cannot run through every fighter at the UFC level. I am expecting improvement from the Brazilian prospect, and maybe most importantly, a more patient performance.
If Pichel is to have any success, it will likely come early in the fight, testing the wrestling defense of Bonfim. I like the chances of this fight making it out of Round 1, as do the oddsmakers at -400 (80% implied odds) that we see a second round.
As the fight progresses, the speed and footwork advantage of Bonfim will be the deciding factors. Eventually, the younger man will land the bigger, more damaging shots, and at that point, I will be quite surprised if the elder Pichel will be able to withstand the onslaught.
Pichel has only one submission loss on his record, and that was to a higher level grappler in Gregor Gillespie six years ago. Thus the path by way of knockout or stoppage seems more likely. At the end of the day, I think it will be the faster, more powerful striking of Bonfim that finds a finish in the second or third round on Saturday night.
The Pick: Ismael Bonfim by KO in Rounds 2-3 (+360)
Billy Ward: Paul Craig by Submission (+1100)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
The Shogun Rua Revenge Tour UFC 301 main card kicks off with a bout between fast-rising Brazilian contender Caio Borralho as a massive favorite against UFC veteran Paul Craig.
Borralho is a deserved favorite here. The leader of the Fighting Nerds is 5-0 in the UFC, with nary a close fight to be found. He’s an excellent athlete and well-rounded mixed martial artist, combining high-level striking with a strong grappling foundation.
Paul Craig is … Paul Craig. The Scotsman has elite submission skills – and not much else. His nine UFC wins include six submissions and three knockouts, though one of the KOs was due to his opponent letting his arm break rather than submit to the armbar.
The problem with Craig’s game is his lackluster takedowns. Once the book got out on his submission skills, most opponents simply refused to engage with him on the ground. Craig will try to pull guard, but that typically requires a complicit partner.
He just might have one in Borralho. A fellow BJJ black belt with a background in judo, Borralho is typically content to accept top position and win minutes. That’s worked so far for him – but he hasn’t faced anyone nearly as dangerous as Craig off their back.
Besides, Craig’s moneyline price of +470 is far too disparate from his submission odds. If he’s going to win, that has to be how he does so.
I mentioned in my Borralho vs. Craig betting preview that I’m interested in the fight to end inside two rounds. Craig’s submission chances – which are considerably higher before the fighters get too slippery – are a big part of that. Give me a sprinkle on him to pick up a seventh UFC sub.
The Pick: Paul Craig by Submission (+1100 at FanDuel)
Dan Tom: Michel Pereira by Submission (+380)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target the prop market on a main-card attraction between Michel Pereira and Ihor Potieria.
Pereira, akin to many of the betting favorites fighting at UFC 301, is prohibitively priced from a moneyline perspective.
Although I agree with Pereira being favored to win, I suspect that Potieria's long frame and southpaw stylings will make exchanges on the feet much tighter than many are forecasting.
For that reason, I believe that Pereira's win conditions will naturally be bottlenecked to the Brazilian's submission wrestling edge.
Not only is Pereira a wrestling champion of his region of Parana, but the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt holds eight submission wins to his resume.
Despite those submissions accounting for nearly half of Pereira's professional finishes, the bookmakers have disproportionately priced his method props, opening his knockout prop in chalk territory while keeping the submission prop at a nice plus number.
Potieria has yet to lose by submission, but he also hasn't faced a black belt in the octagon that wasn't the ghost of Mauricio Rua.
And when Potieria was briefly put on his back by Rodolfo Bellato, the Ukrainian willingly gave his arms to be taken once he was mounted and turned in an effort to give his neck shortly after.
Considering that Pereira will still look to secure submissions when his strikes are working just fine (e.g. his fight with Michal Olekseijczuk), then I'll gladly take a stab on the plus money side of some out-of-proportion props.
The Pick: Michel Pereira by Submission (+380 at BetRivers)
Clint MacLean: Jose Aldo by KO (+650)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET
Jose Aldo is one of the most vicious strikers the UFC has ever seen. His body work and leg kicks are legendary.
Aldo has 16 wins by knockout, and even though opponent Jonathan Martinez is on the best run of his life, I believe that he is punching above his weight a bit. I also do not trust Martinez's durability.
Martinez has been dropped four times in his UFC career and KO'd once, including being dropped twice by Andre Soukhamthath in the same fight.
There is a clear levels difference here, and I do not believe that on JMart's best day he can hold a candle to what Aldo can do.
"The King of Rio" returns to the UFC octagon in his own backyard on Saturday night in Brazil. How can we not go to war with Aldo one more time?
The Pick: Jose Aldo by KO (+650 at BetMGM)
Tony Sartori: Steve Erceg by KO (+420)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC 301 main event features a flyweight title bout as champion Alexandre Pantoja defends the belt in front of a home crowd against No. 10-ranked contender Steve Erceg. While I believe Pantoja will win this fight, Erceg's KO prop at +420 via FanDuel is mispriced and worth taking a shot at.
In my opinion, this is Erceg's clearest path to victory. Erceg is coming off a victory over Matt Schnell in what was a walk-off KO following a nasty straight right-to-left hook combination.
He should want to keep this fight standing as the ground is far more Pantoja's world. Erceg has never been finished, so he should be able to withstand the damage coming back at him on the feet.
On the other hand, Pantoja's biggest weakness is his striking defense. He keeps that chin up and absorbs a lot of punches up high. He has gotten away with it thus far. Pantoja has yet to be finished as well. But he has taken a lot of damage, and I think Erceg possesses the power that could put him out.
Again, I agree with oddsmakers that Pantoja should be the favored guy in this fight. With that said, Erceg has a path in this fight, and it is racking up the damage in the striking department against Pantoja's exploitable defense.
The Pick: Steve Erceg by KO (+420 at FanDuel)
