Check out our UFC 302 best bets for the Saturday event, which features Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier in the pay-per-view main event.
UFC 302 takes place on Saturday at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and then ESPN2 (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight UFC 302 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
With a live crowd and a fairly deep card, our MMA experts have spotted plenty of value.
So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed three fights and four picks on tonight's UFC card that present betting value.
Below, you can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections using odds from BetMGM.
UFC 302 odds for matchups as of Saturday and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC 302 with our FanDuel promo code.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Sean Zerillo: Philip Rowe vs. Jake Matthews
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
Phillip Rowe is a very popular underdog selection this week; fans and bettors are picking him to win at a 50% clip.
However, I found Rowe incredibly unimpressive in his split decision loss to Neil Magny last June. Both fighters looked like they were fighting underwater or dragging parachutes behind them.
Rowe (+142) has big physical advantages in this fight with Jake Matthews (-170). He's four inches taller with a seven-inch reach advantage, but he rarely makes the most of his length on the feet and seemingly prefers to grapple.
Matthews, meanwhile, is four years younger and the more skilled fighter with better cardio and more experience against a higher level of competition. He's the superior offensive grappler and the faster and better pocket boxer, and he should be able to use his leg kicks to chop at Rowe's lanky frame.
Matthews' primary concern is his chin – he's been knocked out or down in several fights. However, Rowe isn't necessarily a big puncher in the aggregate, though he can catch opponents when he has time to load up and leverage his frame behind a long right hand. Moreover, Rowe has also been wobbled or knocked down in several of his UFC bouts – and Matthews is arguably the most dangerous puncher he's faced.
Rowe is also far too content to accept bottom position and fight off his back – using his long limbs to hunt for submissions – after permitting takedowns (career 59% takedown defense) or getting hurt.
Matthews has an underrated top game, and each takedown could be a round in his favor.
Matthews is the far likelier minute-winner in this matchup; I'd give both men similar finish equity.
Bet Matthews to -175 (projected -190) and consider his decision prop (projected +154, listed +160) or KO/TKO prop (projected +511, listed +550) as a round-robin piece.
The Pick: Jake Matthews (-155 at DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Cesar Almeida vs. Roman Kopylov
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
We’ve seen the line move all over the place in the featured prelim between Roman Kopylov (+102) and Cesar Almeida (-122). Sharp followers of the market could’ve fairly easily grabbed plus-money tickets on both sides of the middleweight matchup – but, unfortunately, that ship has sailed.
Almeida is now a slight favorite throughout the industry. He's available at +100 odds at multiple sportsbooks at the time of this writing, but sharp eyes may be able to snipe off an even better line before fight night (I grabbed +105 on Friday afternoon).
I’m taking advantage of that plus money because Kopylov has a crystal clear path to victory. While known primarily as a striker, Kopylov began his combat sports journey in sambo while living and training in Dagestan.
Almeida is a former kickboxer who has a 1-2 record against UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira in their former discipline.
Almeida has also been taken down six times between his two UFC-affiliated appearances, three each on the Contender Series and in his promotional debut. While he’s performed well once the fight hits the canvas, the level of competition thus far has been much lower than Kopylov with his 4-3 UFC record.
This bet could be proven wrong in a hurry if Kopylov doesn’t follow the straightest path to victory, but at plus money, it’s a risk I’m willing to take. There’s also the chance that the threat of a takedown neutralizes some of Almeida’s striking, so Kopylov isn’t drawing totally dead on the feet.
A Kopylov win probably ends up being a pretty boring fight as he grinds out the patient Almeida from top position without taking any risks that might allow Almeida to return to his feet. But boring wins cash tickets just the same, so let’s hope for a snoozer leading into the main card.
The Pick: Roman Kopylov (+100 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC main event features a lightweight title bout as Islam Makhachev (-600) defends his belt against Dustin Poirier (+440). Makhachev opened as a -500 favorite, and that line has since exploded up to -600 or more.
As much as it pains me to say, I agree with the steam on the moderate favorite.
I would imagine that 99% of those reading this article would prefer Poirier to win. Of course, I would too.
But when my money is on the line, bias and fandom must be put aside, and we have to objectively analyze what we think the most probable outcome is relative to the odds and see where the edge lies. In this fight, that edge is on Makhachev's submission prop at +105 via bet365 and Hard Rock Sportsbook.
Obviously, I don't want any part in laying -600 on the moneyline. That leaves Makhachev's prop market:
- KO (+320)
- Decision (+440)
- Submission (+105)
Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to not go the distance, with that prop priced at -600. That line makes sense; both of these guys are killers, and I would be astonished if all five rounds were needed.
That leaves Makhachev by KO or submission. Poirier has been knocked out just once over the past eight years, and Makhachev doesn't hit with the same knockout power as Justin Gaethje.
That is not to say that Makhachev isn't one of the strongest guys at 155 pounds (he is), but his strength is utilized in grappling and wrestling. Poirier has a puncher's chance (if he pulls off the guillotine, then we are truly living in a simulation), but Makhachev can immediately take that puncher's chance away by bringing this fight to the mat.
Once there, it is his world, and with Khabib in Makhachev's corner, I expect a very quick submission in what is hopefully not Poirier's final fight.
The Pick: Islam Makhachev by Submission (+100 at bet365 or Hard Rock)
Dann Stupp: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
I know damn well I'm going to take a flier on Dustin Poirier's moneyline. I'm not sure how he's a 5-1 underdog against anyone on this planet in a 155-pound MMA fight.
Regardless, Poirier is one of the sport's few legitimately good dudes. I've covered MMA for 19 years, and I've seen one turd-bag after another in those two decades.
Poirier, though? He's a quality human being and ferocious fighter – the kind who gets casual fans like my bud Kevin back into the sport and texting me all fight week to ask about his chances to pull off the upset.
And Poirier's chances to pull off the upset? I'd put them at maybe 20% (+400) to 25% (+300). We're getting up to +450 odds at the time of this writing, so I do think it's worth a small bet on his moneyline odds.
But you know what bet I really like? That this goes Over 1.5 rounds at -160 odds.
I know the general narrative is that Poirier scores a knockout – or UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev capitalizes on a Poirier mistake ("Jump the gilly!") and makes quick work of the fan favorite and title challenger.
However, I think both fighters come into UFC 302's main event well-prepared and even a bit cautious. They know they have 25 minutes to work, and both have substantial five-round experience and know how to manage their gas tanks in such a high-profile and pivotal bout.
The Pick: Makhachev vs. Poirier Over 1.5 Rounds (-160 at bet365)
