UFC 302 Odds & Predictions for All 12 Fights: Sean Zerillo’s Betting Preview (Saturday, June 1)

Check out all of the UFC 302 odds with my predictions for all 12 fights for Saturday's pay-per-view event, including the Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier main event.

Below, I break down and predict each bout on the UFC 302 card, which takes place at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

Here's how to watch UFC 302: The preliminary card begins at 6:30 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before moving to ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card then kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ pay-per-view (PPV cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And UFC 302 is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 302 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 302 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's x bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 302 with our DraftKings promo code.

UFC 302 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 302 Odds

Mitch Raposo vs. Andre Lima

Crowdsourced Projections: Andre Lima (71.4%) 

Andre Lima missed weight by four pounds on Friday. You might remember him as a fighter who got a tattoo of the bite mark that disqualified his first UFC opponent, earning him a "Bite of the Night" bonus. This is a very normal sport.

Mitch Raposo, who lost a Contender Series bout to Jake Hadley in 2021 but is 4-0 regionally since (all finishes), will get a short notice debut – as Lima's third different scheduled opponent for Saturday.

Lima is the bigger man (two inches taller, three-inch reach advantage); Raposo could probably compete at strawweight if he could find other opponents. There should be a significant discrepancy in power and physicality in favor of the Brazilian.

His cardio seemed uninspired in his UFC debut – his opponent was coming on before the disqualification – but I'm not sure if it will matter against Raposo, who prefers a far lower pace than Igor Severino pushed in Lima's last fight.

I show slight value on Lima by submission (projected +627, listed +800) in this fight; you can place a small straight wager or use it to juice up round-robin tickets to kick off UFC 302.

Bets

• Andre Lima wins by Submission (+750, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Ailin Perez vs. Joselyne Edwards

Crowdsourced Projections: Ailin Perez (58.5%) 

Given the state of MMA judging – and the difficulty of separating from your opponent in lighter divisions with less power – I typically target underdogs in fights expected to reach a decision; implied odds for this matchup say the fight reaches the scorecards at least 70% of the time.

It should be higher than that (projected -260) and lean to the Over 2.5 Rounds or Fight Goes to Decision prop. However, I give more finish equity to the favorite – Ailin Perez – and expect Joselyne Edwards, who has seen all seven of her UFC bouts go to decision (two splits), to have superior stamina and output across a 15-minute fight. Perez should land the more damaging strikes, but Edwards fires more volume (8.2 to 4.6 strikes landed per minute; +3.6 vs. +2.2 differential).

Perez is the better wrestler and the more aggressive fighter, but her tenacity tends to work against her in the latter stages of a fight; she doesn't conserve her energy to compete across 15 minutes, and I'd expect Edwards to take Round 3 at a far higher percentage than her chances of winning Round 1.

As a result, while I show value on Edwards' pre-fight moneyline (projected +135, listed +165), I'd look to add more on her side live after Round 1. I'd also target her decision prop (projected +221, listed +290) on round-robin tickets. I could see Edwards pulling off a third-round finish against a tiring Perez, so I prefer the moneyline as a straight wager.

Bets

• Joselyne Edwards (+165, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Joselyne Edwards Live after Round 1

Mickey Gall vs. Bassil Hafez

Crowdsourced Projections: Bassil Hafez (72.2%) 

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Gall vs. Hafez preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Billy and I bet Bassil Hafez as a short-notice debutant at +500 against Jack Della Maddalena, where he lost a split decision against a deficient grappler.

He's now a -400 favorite in his follow-up fight against Mickey Gall, whose base is grappling. It does seem like an overcorrection. However, Hafez has a win over Gall in a grappling match (albeit from a decade ago), and he's the far better athlete in this matchup. I'm eager to see what Hafez looks like on a whole training camp; he was tired while keeping a high pace but fought through that exhaustion on his debut.

Hafez is a bit of a wildman. His striking isn't technical, but he is highly aggressive. His ability to wing hooks and mix in takedowns could overwhelm Gall, who is much more flat-footed and a bit fragile.

Gall is the taller and longer fighter and trains out of a good camp (Kill Cliff FC). If Hafez doesn't ice him, this fight may play out more competitively than the moneyline price indicates. That said, Gall may also be a value trap – I don't see him winning multiple rounds, and Hafez has never been finished.

I show value on Gall's moneyline (projected +260, listed +310) but also see value on Hafez by KO/TKO (projected +246, listed +340 at FanDuel)

I was initially leaning toward the 'dog shot but hadn't built my whole prop projections when we did the podcast Friday morning; I'm going to side with Billy's read and take Hafez to score a knockout (and potential Performance of the Night bonus). There's a big difference in fast-twitch explosiveness between these athletes.

Bets

• Bassil Hafez by KO/TKO (+310, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Philip Rowe vs. Jake Matthews

Crowdsourced Projections: Jake Matthews (65.5%)

Phillip Rowe is a very popular underdog selection this week. Fans and bettors are picking him to win at a 50% clip.

I found Rowe incredibly unimpressive in his split-decision loss to Neil Magny last June; both fighters looked like they were fighting underwater or dragging parachutes behind them.

Rowe has significant physical advantages in this fight (4" taller, 7" reach advantage), but he rarely makes the most of his length on the feet – and seemingly prefers to grapple.

Jake Matthews is four years younger and the more skilled fighter, with better cardio and more experience against a higher level of competition. He's the superior offensive grappler and the faster and better pocket boxer, and he should be able to use his leg kicks to chop at Rowe's lanky frame.

Matthews's primary concern is his chin; he's been knocked out or down in several fights. However, Rowe isn't necessarily a big puncher in the aggregate, though he can catch opponents when he has time to load up and leverage his frame behind a long right hand. Moreover, Rowe has also been wobbled or knocked down in several of his UFC bouts – and Matthews is arguably the most dangerous puncher he's faced.

Rowe is also far too content to accept bottom position and fight off his back – using his long limbs to hunt for submissions – after permitting takedowns (career 59% takedown defense) or getting hurt. Matthews has an underrated top game, and each takedown could be a round in his favor.

Matthews is the far likelier minute-winner in this matchup; I'd give both men similar finish equity.

Bet Matthews to -175 (projected -190) and consider his decision prop (projected +154, listed +160) or KO/TKO prop (projected +511, listed +550) as a round-robin piece.

Bets

• Jake Matthews (-155, 0.5u) at DraftKings

Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki

Crowdsourced Projections: Grant Dawson (79.4%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Dawson vs. Solecki preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

In this grappler vs. grappler matchup, I show slight value on the underdog, Joe Solecki. Often, that dynamic leads to a striking match, and Grant Dawson is coming off of a significant upset loss via knockout at Bobby Green's hands.

Solecki hasn't had a knockout in his career. Still, neither fighter has a good chin (both have a pair of knockout losses), and this matchup could be an excellent opportunity for either fighter to find a highlight-reel knockout they are willing to risk getting clipped themselves and opening up.

I still expect this fight to reach a decision 64% of the time (-178 implied odds), more often than the betting market expects (listed -150 at Caesars); there's likely going to be a lot of stalling in the grappling exchanges and neither fighter has ever lost by submission. Bet the distance prop to -160.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (-150, 0.25u) at Caesars

Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Romanov

Crowdsourced Projections: Jailton Almeida (75.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Almeida vs. Romanov preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Jailton Almeida is the far quicker and more dynamic athlete in this matchup. Alexander Romanov once stayed in shape and cut down to about 235 to 240 pounds; however, he's ballooned back up towards 285 – with a puffy physique – and doesn't have the stamina to compete past the 10-minute mark.

Romanov has quit multiple times in fights, including his loss to Alexander Volkov, against whom he seemingly stopped trying after his first takedown attempt was denied. It also includes his win over Juan Espino, against whom he earned a technical decision despite failing to continue after a third-round low blow.

Almeida is a natural light heavyweight with a shredded physique who has manhandled more prominent fighters and more credentialed wrestlers – without tiring. He might even have the striking advantage in this matchup – with powerful body kicks – but I expect him to get on top of Romanov and hunt for a submission or unleash his underrated ground and pound.

Almeida's primary weakness is durability; still, Romanov doesn't seem to have the striking technique to threaten the Brazilian on the feet – and I don't know how many opportunities he'll get to land something, considering Almeida's willingness to grapple proactively.

I projected Almeida to win this fight inside the distance around 64% of the time (-177 implied) and would bet that prop to -163; I also show slight value on his KO/TKO prop (projected +340, listed +350), which I'll likely use as a round-robin selection.

Bets

• Jailton Almeida wins Inside the Distance (-150, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Cesar Almeida vs. Roman Kopylov

Crowdsourced Projections: Cesar Almeida (61.9%)

Roman Kopylov is a very popular underdog selection this week; fans and bettors are picking Kopylov to win at a 59% clip.

I think he needs offensive grappling successes to win this matchup against Cesar Almeida, a fellow kickboxer. Kopylov has faced a run of grapplers in his recent matchups but has landed takedowns of his own (against both Puna Soriano and Albert Duraev), and I'd expect him to wrestle Almeida, who has five professional bouts and has permitted six takedowns (and 10 minutes of control time) across his Contender Series bout and UFC debut.

While Almeida doesn't have good takedown defense, he is exceptionally patient and calculated regarding his defensive grappling in the bottom position, rarely wasting energy to attempt to explode back up to his feet. Conversely, Kopylov tends to gas out when forced to grapple throughout his career. If he can deny takedown attempts and strike, he's fine for 15 minutes; when Kopylov grapples early, his gas tank runs low by the halfway point of the fight.

As a result, I like Almeida pre-fight (projected -163) to -150, but we may find a better live price on the Brazilian after Round 1. I anticipate that Kopylov may be able to grapple for a round but could be counter-productive to his chances of winning the fight, zapping his gas tank in the process.

Almeida is certainly getting a step up in competition relative to his previous opponents – while Kopylov is getting some class relief against a less experienced fighter. Still, the UFC is doing its best to fast-track a contender with an undefeated record and a kickboxing win over Alex Pereira by having him avoid higher-level grapplers; at age 36, it's probably now or never for Almeida.

When he isn't getting grappled, Almeida is very aggressive – and Kopylov is a far better hammer than a nail.

I'll likely use Almeida by KO/TKO (projected +223, listed +260) as a round-robin piece. I have a gut feeling Almeida will win in Round 2 (+850) or Round 3 (+1400) as Kopylov wilts from the pressure.

Bets

• Cesar Almeida (-115, 0.5u) at DraftKings
• Cesar Almeida Live after Round 1

Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Crowdsourced Projections: Randy Brown (57.4%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Brown vs. Zaleski preview from my colleague Bryan Fonseca.

I'm a fan of Randy "Rudeboy" Brown. He has the physical tools (4" taller, 5" reach advantage) and skill set to cover his price tag in this matchup.

Still, Brown seemingly gets wobbled in every fight. Zaleski is an extremely powerful and dynamic athlete competing in the UFC's post-USADA era, alleviating concerns about his age (37).

Brown is the superior grappler, but he's not a great offensive wrestler. Dos Santos has shown solid takedown defense in his recent fights against grapplers.

Brown might use the cage push to slow Zaleski's pressure. Otherwise, I'd expect a striking matchup where Brown looks to land long, straight punches and teep kicks from the outside to rack up the volume while Zaleski tries to close the distance and create impactful blows to sway the judges or close the show.

Brown is the hometown fighter, but Zaleski should land the more powerful strikes in this fight. I projected his moneyline closer to +135 – and would want at least +145 to fire on the underdog, but it will be a small wager, if anything.

Bets

• Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+155, 0.25u) at Caesars

Niko Price vs. Alex Morono

Crowdsourced Projections: Alex Morono (67.3%)

This fight is a rematch from 2017, which was lined around a pick'em; Price won via second-round knockout, but the result was overturned because he tested positive for marijuana.

I do project slight value on Price as the underdog all these years later – but I'm not betting on him after a pair of knockout losses, including a very odd knockout against Robbie Lawler (which looked like a dive, regardless of whether it was).

Price has absorbed a ton of damage throughout his 24-fight career; he's never had good striking defense (48%) but has relied upon durability – and his chin is seemingly cracked.

Moreover, Price has bad knees, and his movement and athleticism are noticeably compromised.

Alex Morono is a well-rounded fighter but a low-level athlete compared to the welterweight division. He also looked slow and showed signs of declining speed and physicality in his recent win over 40-year-old Court McGee, in which Morono was outstruck 52-38 at distance.

I'm down on both of these fighters, and I think both are nearing the end of their tenures with the promotion.

I don't project any value on this fight – from a moneyline, total or winning method perspective – so it's an easy pass for me.

Initially, I leaned to the Under 1.5 rounds and Moreno by KO/TKO; however, his recent form is underwhelming.

Bets

• Pass

Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Crowdsourced Projections: Kevin Holland (72.5%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

We have profited greatly by system-betting Michal Oleksiejczuk to win Round 1 in the UFC; six of his eight promotional victories have come inside the opening frame. I'd never argue against his Round 1 odds (listed +750).

A former light heavyweight, Oleksiejuczuk carries considerable power at middleweight, and he'll face a taller and longer Kevin Holland (three inches taller, seven-inch reach advantage), who is coming back up from welterweight for this fight.

Holland has a severe cardio advantage in this matchup – and all of the grappling upside. If he can avoid getting clipped in the opening round, he should be able to outwork Oleksiecjczuk down the stretch and potentially find a second- or third-round finish.

I don't expect him to proactively grapple. Holland knows his purpose for a pay-per-view; he's there to entertain first and foremost. If an opportunity arises to finish the fight with a D'arce after hurting his opponent, he'll take it. Still, I'd be surprised if Holland actively pursues takedowns to win minutes in this fight.

That said, I'd bet Holland live after Round 1 and would consider betting his props to win in Rounds 2 (+480) or Round 3 (+800) after Michal's likeliest win condition has expired.

Bets

• Kevin Holland wins in Round 2 (+480, 0.15u) at FanDuel
• Kevin Holland wins in Round 3 (+800, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Kevin Holland Live after Round 1

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa

Crowdsourced Projections: Sean Strickland (69.2%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Costa vs. Strickland preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

I would probably bet Paulo Costa at this price in a three-round fight, but I cannot justify it over five rounds against an opponent with superior output and cardio.

Costa has seen the championship rounds only once – and while he did win the fifth round, that bout also took place at light heavyweight; avoiding the cut to middleweight in that main event spot likely helped his stamina.

Strickland has gone the distance in five-round fights on five occasions; he's 3-2 in those decisions, including a pair of closely contested split losses against Jared Cannonier and Dricus Du Plessis – both of which could have gone either way.

Strickland also owns a four-inch reach advantage in this matchup and should be able to jab Costa comfortably for the duration; Robert Whittaker had a less-pronounced reach advantage and still had a lot of success with his jab against Costa. Moreover, Strickland is far more educated defensively (62% vs. 47% striking defense).

If I were to bet Costa, I'd play him in the Finish Only market (+155). He's the larger and more powerful athlete, and I give him more finish equity (80% of his win condition) than Strickland (40%) – a former welterweight with a pair of knockout losses in the UFC. Strickland was knocked out by this same technique that nearly put away Whittaker in his loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (also appearing on this card):

Alternatively, given that significant cardio discrepancy, I'd bet Strickland's decision prop (projected +141, listed +175) and/or his late props – Round 4 (+1600) and Round (+2000) – at big odds and hunt for a better moneyline price in the live market anytime after Round 1.

I'd expect Costa to win one of the first three rounds of this matchup by having a big moment to counteract Strickland's volume, and I would capitalize on the price adjustment.

At DraftKings, you can place a Same-Game Parlay (SGP) with Strickland and the Over 1.5 Rounds at -130, or Strickland and the Over 2.5 Rounds at +105 – which are good odds considering the actual lines on straight bets (-265 for Strickland, -425 for Over 1.5 Rounds and -230 for Over 2.5 Rounds). The best possible SGP odds should be closer to -143 with the Over 1.5 Rounds and -102 with the Over 2.5 Rounds, a difference of 1.7% and 2.3%, respectively, using the listed odds for those wagers.

If you go into the fight parlays section in the same book, Strickland with Over 1.5 Rounds is -190, Over 2.5 Rounds is -135, and Over 3.5 Rounds is +100; make sure to click on the SGP feature to get Strickland and Over 1.5 at -130 or Over 2.5 at +105 rather than placing the pre-built parlays.

Bets

• SGP: Sean Strickland and Over 1.5 Rounds (-130, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Sean Strickland Live Anytime after Round 1

Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier

Crowdsourced Projections: Islam Makhachev (86.8%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out my full preview of Makhahev vs. Poirier, which is UFC 302's headlining bout.

In short, Dustin Poirier is a popular underdog selection this week; resources I use to create my projections had bettors and fans selecting Poirier about 34% of the time.

I ultimately projected Islam Makhachev as a -655 favorite (86.8% implied) in this matchup, and I would use him as a parlay piece up to around -625.

I expect the fight to end inside the distance around 84% of the time (-538 implied) and would consider parlaying the fight to end inside the distance (-500 at Caesars).

However, I'd prefer to bet Makhachev by submission (projected -129, listed +100) in the winning-method market. Poirier has two career losses by submission, including a pair of rear-naked chokes against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. He's likelier to roll over and give his back to try to escape mount rather than accept ground and pound.

I'd expect Makhachev to find the back and work for that RNC against Poirier or find an arm triangle from half-guard as he did against Oliveira and Drew Dober.

Bets

• Islam Makhachev (-395, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Islam Makhachev wins by Submission (+100, 0.25u) at FanDuel

Zerillo's UFC 302 Bets

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Moneyline Bets

• Joselyne Edwards (+165, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Jake Matthews (-155, 0.5u) at DraftKings
• Cesar Almeida (-115, 0.5u) at DraftKings
• Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+155, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Islam Makhachev (-395, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Prop Bets and Totals

• Andre Lima wins by Submission (+750, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Bassil Hafez by KO/TKO (+310, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Dawson/Solecki, Fight Goes to Decision (-150, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Jailton Almeida wins Inside the Distance (-150, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Kevin Holland wins in Round 2 (+480, 0.15u) at FanDuel
• Kevin Holland wins in Round 3 (+800, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Islam Makhachev wins by Submission (+100, 0.25u) at FanDuel

Parlays

• SGP: Sean Strickland and Over 1.5 Rounds (-130, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Live Bets

• Joselyne Edwards Live after Round 1
• Cesar Almeida Live after Round 1
• Kevin Holland Live after Round 1
• Sean Strickland Live Anytime after Round 1