Ailin Perez vs. Joselyne Edwards Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Ailin Perez vs. Joselyne Edwards odds for UFC 302 on Saturday, June 1.
Women's bouts on early UFC preliminary cards rarely generate too much interest.
Then again, not all of them are unofficial rematches of a pretty nasty real-world tangle at the UFC Performance Institute.
Yes, folks, this UFC 302 bout has a little extra drama attached to it, so it's got my attention.
This is my Perez vs. Edwards pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Perez | Edwards | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-2 | 13-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:18 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 136 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 70" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/5/1994 | 9/29/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.96 | 4.71 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.18 | 3.36 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.89 | 1.00 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 33% |
| TD Def | 75% | 64% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.3 |
Argentina's Perez enters UFC 302 with a two-bout winning streak – though it unofficially might be 2-1 if you include your November 2023 tangle with Edwards. Perez ultimately defeated Lucie Pudilova during that UFC fight week, but in the days leading up to the event, she was sporting a black eye.
After the victory, Perez finally confirmed that it was due to a brief scrap with Edwards at the UFC PI. At some point before the confrontation, Perez said she offered a blunt assessment online of one of Edwards' recent fights. And Edwards apparently didn't like Perez's general thesis.
According to Perez, Edwards was the initial attacker in the gym. Edwards didn't necessarily dispute that fact, but she did take umbrage with Perez's coach who nearly choked her unconscious during the melee.
So yeah, this rivalry definitely has a bit more oomph to it.
As for the upcoming official fight, I see plenty of red flags on each side. Both fighters are experienced though a bit incomplete. Neither has a significant win against a top contender. And in the UFC, neither has scored a victory by anything but a decision.
Ultimately, I think this one also goes to the scorecards (at the time of this writing, it's lined -250 to do so). I think Perez could have some success early, especially if she can get some takedowns going. She can also rack up some serious minutes of control time from top.
However, Edwards is going to have a height (three inches), reach (four inches) and likely strength advantage. She's also been the far more active striker, though in fairness, she's also proven quite hittable.
Some early money has supported Edwards as the underdog, and I obviously understand why. She's got paths to victory if Perez can't get her game plan going. But Perez also showed suspect cardio in her most recent fight, and that opened the door for a sneaky little play on this early prelim.
Perez vs. Edwards Pick
Can Edwards win just one round against Perez? With Edwards' physical advantages and Perez's potential cardio issues, as well as the bad-blood nature of this bout, can Edwards claim just one frame? I think so.
I could see Perez blowing her load in the first round while shooting for takedowns – and then taking a bit of a break in the second round. I could also see Perez going strong through two frames and then cruising in the final round to hang on for a 29-28 win.
In either scenario, Perez should win with 29-28 scores across the board (87-84 total) at worst. Therefore, we're going to take the +3.5 point spread handicap, which is available at DraftKings (-160). If Edwards wins at least one round for an 87-84 "loss," the +3.5 handicap would give us a half-point victory with our bet.
I wouldn't fault you for taking a flier on the Edwards moneyline (+165 at ESPN BET) straight up – and I've also got a +2500 MMA Prop Squad pick for her – but I think this alternative angle gets us just the wiggle room we need for the most likely scenarios.
The Pick: Joselyne Edwards +3.5 point spread (-160 at DraftKings)
