Andre Lima vs. Mitch Raposo Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Andre Lima vs. Mitch Raposo odds for UFC 302 on Saturday, June 1 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
After Andre Lima badly missed weight, UFC 302's flyweight opener became a catchweight bout.
Still, there's value on the board in his fight against Mitch Raposo.
Tale of the Tape
| Lima | Raposo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-1 | 8-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:11 | 11:26 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 130 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 64" | 67" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/16/1998 | 2/4/1999 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.57 | 3.98 |
| SS Accuracy | 25% | 60% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.18 | 2.67 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.67 | 1.31 |
| TD Acc | 66% | 66% |
| TD Def | 0% | 61% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 1.3 |
Lima missed weight by four pounds on Friday. You might remember him as a fighter who got a tattoo of the bite mark that disqualified his first UFC opponent, earning him a "Bite of the Night" bonus. This is a very normal sport.
Raposo, who lost a Contender Series bout to Jake Hadley in 2021 but is 4-0 regionally since (all finishes), will get a short notice debut – as Lima's third different scheduled opponent for Saturday.
Lima is the bigger man (two inches taller, three-inch reach advantage); Raposo could probably compete at strawweight if he could find other opponents. There should be a significant discrepancy in power and physicality in favor of the Brazilian.
His cardio seemed uninspired in his UFC debut – his opponent was coming on before the disqualification – but I'm not sure if it will matter against Raposo, who prefers a far lower pace than Igor Severino pushed in Lima's last fight.
Lima vs. Raposo Pick
I show slight value on Lima by submission (projected +627, listed +800) in this fight.
You can place a small straight wager or use it to juice up round-robin tickets to kick off UFC 302.
The Pick: Andre Lima wins by Submission (+750, 0.1u) at FanDuel
