Cesar Almeida vs. Roman Kopylov Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Cesar Almeida vs. Roman Kopylov odds for UFC 302 on Saturday, June 1 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
In a preliminary matchup that's been drawing early action from gamblers, Roman Kopylov will take on Cesar Almeida at middleweight.
Kopylov is coming off a tough loss to the rising Anthony Hernandez earlier this year and is looking to test himself with another tough fight this Saturday when he steps into the cage with Almeida.
A former professional kickboxer who holds a win over current UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira, it's safe the say that there are a fair share of eyes on the Brazilian newcomer.
Almeida has already gotten a UFC win under his belt since his debut on Dana White's Contender Series, but Kopylov is an undeniable step up in competition.
Tale of the Tape
| Almeida | Kopylov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-0 | 12-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:07 | 10:18 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/28/1988 | 5/4/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| SS Accuracy | 64% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.3 | 4.1 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 50% |
| TD Def | 62% | 87% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Despite Kopylov and Almeida being deceptively well-rounded, both fighters are primarily strikers by trade.
A master of sport in Russian hand-to-hand combat, Kopylov is a smooth and savvy southpaw who offers a lot to like on the feet. From crafty punch combinations to persistent bodywork, Kopylov can flow to and from multiple ranges.
When feeling in stride, Kopylov leans heavier into his patent left power kick, utilizing a classic southpaw double attack while threatening with change-ups to both the head and body.
Although Kopylov recently lost by submission, the Russian fighter has made marked efforts to improve his wrestling (as he now operates out of Makhachkala, Dagestan).
I wouldn't necessarily be shocked to see Koplylov try t0 change gears with takedowns to get the jump on Almeida, but the Brazilian striker appears to be quietly competent within that realm.
With most of Almeida's opponents in mixed martial arts trying to grapple with him, "Cesinha" has apparently done his homework when it comes to operating inside of clinch space. And when the fight does go to the floor, Almeida demonstrates solid positional awareness and ground striking to boot.
On the feet, Almeida has slightly tightened up his more "slickster" approach from his kickboxing days.
The former WGP kickboxing champion will still lean on shoulder rolling for some defense (and eat the occasional strike in the process), but seems a bit more defensively urgent in this sport given all the different threats that are on the table that range from takedowns to head kicks.
Although there aren't any relevant MMA samples of Almeida operating against southpaws, he did beat southpaw Serkan Ozcaglayan in a 2022 Glory kickboxing bout in which the Brazilian was a sizeable underdog.
Almeida almost finished Ozcaglayan early with multiple knockdowns, eventually taking the win unanimously on the scorecards.
Almeida's stance-switching game largely stays the same against southpaws, but Ozcaglayan's jab did appear to give him some problems.
Almeida vs. Kopylov Pick
Even though the oddsmakers opened the Russian as the favorite, public money has come in on the Brazilian kickboxer, listing Almeida -115 and Kopylov -105 as of this writing.
Despite the betting line technically flipping in some houses, this fight is – and should be treated as – a pick'em.
I don't disagree with Kopylov opening as a favorite because he's the more proven product in the octagon, but I also agree with the money that is coming in on Almeida.
Aside from showing surprisingly promising signs in the grappling department, Almeida has set himself up for success by moving shop to Xtreme Couture MMA in the U.S. to help improve his wrestling and cage craft.
Between the coaching and southpaw training partners that will be available to Almeida, I believe that he'll be well-prepared to take advantage of Kopylov's traditionally porous defense.
Picking props in this fight can be tricky since I'm forecasting that it will go the distance, so I'll be keeping things simple and sticking to a moneyline.
Regardless of who you like, it's "pick a side and ride" at prices like these.
The Pick: Cesar Almeida (-115 at Ceasars)
