UFC 302 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki: Bet This Fighter by Finish (Saturday, June 1)

Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki Odds

Here's everything you need to know about the Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki odds for UFC 302 on Saturday, June 1 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.

We have a lightweight matchup between two of the division's better grapplers as Grant Dawson meets Joe Solecki in a UFC 302 undercard bout.

It's style-against-style; Solecki is a lifelong jiu-jitsu practitioner and competitor while Dawson is primarily a wrestler, though he also holds a BJJ black belt.

Both fighters saw their momentum halted in their most recent appearances. Dawson was a perfect 8-0 in the UFC before his upset loss to Bobby Green by first-round knockout while Solecki was 5-1 before suffering a brutal slam from Drakkar Klose.

Only one can get back on the right track on Saturday, with oddsmakers leaning heavily toward Dawson.

Tale of the Tape

The fact that Grant Dawson doesn't have a ranking next to his name is a testament to how deep the UFC 155-pound division is. He started his UFC career 8-0, fighting a steady stream of increasingly tougher opponents.

I was finally sold on his greatness when he beat Damir Ismagulov and Olympic medalist Mark Madsen in back-to-back fights. Dawson combined for five takedowns without allowing one in those matchups against high-level grapplers.

He's also shown significant improvements to his striking since moving his training camp to American Top Team. While it won't ever be the focal point of his game, he dropped Madsen in their fight, and he's been generally more comfortable than in his early UFC appearances.

At least until he ran into Bobby Green. Green was being viewed as a stepping stone for Dawson in the latter's first main event appearance – and Green then pulled off the +350 upset with a straight left hand 30 seconds into the fight.

Dawson has done the right thing by waiting roughly eight months since that fight to make his return, and he gets a big step down (particularly in the striking department) in the form of Solecki.

Solecki is about as one-dimensional of a fighter as still exists in the modern UFC. Over his last two fights – representing more than 11 minutes of cage time – he's landed three significant strikes.

It's grapple or bust for Solecki, who has eight submission wins among his 13 pro victories. That would be a solid strategy if he used his grappling to do damage from top position, but he often sacrifices position for submission attempts while rarely even attempting to damage his opponents.

In the slam loss to Klose, Solecki landed the first takedown but found himself playing guard due to overextending for a back take.

Then, his desperate clinging to an armbar led to the slam knockout.

That style can work against one-dimensional strikers as he has the takedown ability to force the fight where he wants it. However, Dawson has both the jiu-jitsu to avoid submissions and is the superior wrestler in this matchup.

Dawson vs. Solecki Pick

I don't really see a great path to victory for Solecki here. His best hope is a miracle submission against a fighter who's never been tapped – and who probably won't get taken down either.

At the same time, I'm not in the business of laying nearly 5-1 odds in an MMA fight. There's enough room for the unexpected in MMA that it's not a great way to turn a profit – as Dawson proved in his last fight as a heavy favorite.

However, I was surprised to find decent plus money on Dawson to win this fight inside the distance. The +175 odds at DraftKings and BetMGM there are generous when you consider the big moneyline price, and there's a stylistic argument as well.

Solecki's willingness to give up top control while hunting for subs could find him in some bad spots against Dawson, who's a capable ground-and-pound fighter. The even likelier scenario is Dawson keeps this one standing, where he should be able to do plenty of damage.

Especially considering the new UFC gloves, which have shed roughly one-third of the padding by weight from the old design.

Of course, Dawson picking up a fifth UFC submission victory isn't that far-fetched either considering his willingness to mix strikes and grappling enhancing his chances.

The Pick: Grant Dawson by Finish (+175 at DraftKings or BetMGM)